Commodity Research - Morning Insight - 21 Jan 2026 by Kotak Securities Ltd
Bullion – Spot gold surged to a fresh record above $4,766.3/Oz on Tuesday, while silver gone past $95 for the first time, driven by escalating US-EU trade concerns and renewed safe-haven demand. A weaker US dollar, sliding to a two-week low, further supported precious metals. Softer US labor data also weighed on the dollar. Trump’s push to assert control over Greenland revived fears of broader trade confrontation with Europe. Risk sentiment deteriorated after Denmark reinforced its military presence in Greenland, following Trump’s warning of additional tariffs of up to 25% on select European nations. China’s PBOC adding 30,000 ounces in December, marking its 14th consecutive monthly increase. Today, gold climb to fresh highs of $4,849 as focus will be on Speech from Trump in WEF today while EU leaders are set to discuss countermeasures at an emergency summit as the bias for bullion firmly positive
Crude Oil – WTI crude oil prices gained momentum on Tuesday, closing above $60/bbl, supported by halted production at the massive Tengiz and Korolev fields in Kazakhstan and a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar index. Additional support came from improved global growth expectations, as the IMF upgraded its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from its October 2025 projection, while leaving its 2027 forecast unchanged at 3.2%. Today, oil prices pulled back, slipping below $59.5/bbl, as traders turned cautious ahead of the IEA’s oil market report and Trump’s address at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Natural Gas – NYMEX gas futures surged more than 25% yesterday, biggest single day gain in nearly four years, after weather forecasts turned significantly colder for late January. Expectations of an Arctic blast extending into Texas this weekend boosted heating demand prospects, driving prices sharply higher
Base metals – LME base metals saw a modest rebound in early trade, with copper recouping part of the previous session’s losses as macro factors and a weaker U.S. dollar lent support. Sentiment improved amid renewed trade rhetoric from Trump, typically a tailwind for dollar-priced commodities. However, signs of demand fatigue persist in China, where the Yangshan copper import premium has fallen to its lowest level since mid-2024, suggesting elevated prices are starting to curb consumption. Market structure remains tight, with sharp backwardation on the LME pointing to near-term supply stress. On the supply side, Rio Tinto reported stronger copper output from its Oyu Tolgoi expansion, while aluminium output in China hit capacity limits, reinforcing divergent fundamentals across the metals complex. Base metals are trading higher as macro factors and currency moves provide support.
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