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Bullion – Spot gold surged to a fresh record high for the fourth straight session on Thursday, settling at all-time highs of $4,326.6 per ounce as escalating US-China trade tensions, weaker dollar and the ongoing US government shutdown. Silver also climbed to a record $54.2 per ounce. The dollar index fell to a one-week low, pressured by weaker-than-expected economic data and growing rate-cut expectations. The Philadelphia Fed business outlook dropped sharply to -12.8, while dovish remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller reinforced bets on further policy easing. Additionally, regional bank weakness and concerns over the shutdown’s economic toll of up to $15 billion per week lifted gold’s appeal. Today, Gold surged to a new all-time high of $4,379.20 as concerns over credit quality in US economy, US -China trade tension and expectations of further Fed easing spurred haven demand, with traders now pricing in rate cuts in October and December

Crude Oil – WTI crude oil prices slipped to a five-month low of $57.2/bbl on Thursday as markets turned cautious about potential oversupply after Trump and Vladimir Putin agreed to meet in Hungary within two weeks to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. Adding to the pressure, the EIA’s latest data showed a 3.5 millionbarrel build in U.S. crude inventories for the week ending October 10. Prices surged above $59/bbl earlier in the session after Trump said Indian Prime Minister Modi had pledged to halt purchases of Russian barrels. Oil prices are now on track for a third consecutive weekly decline, weighed down by oversupply concerns after the IEA raised its surplus estimates, and demand jitters amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions. Today, oil prices edged below $57/bbl as markets assessed unfavorable supply-demand outlook.

Natural Gas – Nymex Henry Hub natural gas futures slipped to $2.92/mmBtu as US gas inventories rose 80 bcf last week. Prices did not get any support from consistent uptick in LNG exports.

Base metals – On Thursday, LME base metals showed a mixed performance, with aluminium as the top gainer, climbing over 1% to $2,788/ton, while lead edged lower. Copper held onto modest gains, halting a 2-day fall as declining treatment and refining charges pressured producer margins. Importers in Japan, South Korea, and Spain cautioned that persistently low processing fees could challenge the sector’s sustainability, even as hopes of additional Fed rate cuts offered support. Trade tensions between the US-China also influenced the market, with Beijing’s rare earth export curbs drawing criticism and prompting talks of extending the trade truce. Meanwhile, surging copper prices are encouraging Chinese smelters to expand exports, reflecting strong global demand and attractive premiums over domestic benchmarks. Base metals could see cautious trading amid uncertain sentiment.

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