Commodity Research - Morning Insight - 11 Feb 2026 by Kotak Securities
Bullion – Gold and silver prices corrected on Tuesday, down by 0.6% and over 3% respectively, after failing to sustain momentum it gets in the previous session. The dollar recovered from week lows on hawkish commentary from Fed officials, with Cleveland Fed President Hammack signaling a prolonged policy pause and Dallas Fed President Logan emphasizing the need for “material” labor market weakness to justify further rate cuts. Bullion prices recover from day’s low after softer US data, with December retail sales and core retail sales both flat m/m versus expectations of 0.4% increase. Today, Gold edged higher near $5,050 after weak US retail sales reinforced expectations of Fed rate cuts. Markets now focus on Wednesday’s Nonfarm Payrolls, with payroll growth seen at 70K and unemployment steady at 4.4%, while US–Iran tensions and reduced Chinese holdings of US debt support safe-haven demand.
Crude Oil – WTI crude oil held steady yesterday as traders monitored developments on the US-Iran front as Trump stated that he believes Iran wants to reach a deal with the US regarding its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, adding that it would be "foolish" not to do so. Today, oil prices surged to $64.6/bbl, supported by escalating concerns over a potential US-Iran confrontation. Reports indicated that the US is considering seizing tankers carrying Iranian crude and could deploy an additional aircraft carrier strike group to the region if negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program fail. These geopolitical tensions outweighed the bearish impact of the latest API report, which showed a massive crude inventory build of 13.2 million barrels.
Natural Gas – NYMEX natural gas futures fell to a one-month low near $3.0/mmBtu as warmer weather dampened heating demand, while EIA forecasts record 2026 production amid steady consumption trends.
Base metals – Base metals ended Tuesday mixed, with copper and aluminium closing lower while other metals finished higher. Copper held near $13,100 per ton while aluminium fell over 1%, as demand signals from China softened ahead of the Lunar New Year. Factory shutdowns curtailed industrial activity, dampened spot buying interest, and led to rising exchange inventories across Asian markets. The recent rally, driven by strong Chinese demand and broad commodity inflows, is losing momentum as elevated prices deter fresh buying interest. On the supply front, persistent operational disruptions at major mining assets and cautious production guidance continue to lend underlying support. However, China’s refined copper output growth is expected to moderate this year. A softer US dollar may cushion downside risks, though seasonally weaker Chinese demand during the holiday period could cap near-term upside in base metals.
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