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Bullion – Spot gold settled moderately lower for the third straight session yesterday near $4,200/Oz despite weak U.S. private payrolls data strengthened expectations of a Fed rate cut next week. However, silver extended its rally to a fresh record near $59, aided by persistent supply deficits and weakness in dollar that fell to a five-week low. ADP data unexpectedly showed private firms cut 32,000 jobs in November, while ISM Services PMI held steady at 52.6, indicating moderate expansion but soft employment trends. Markets now price in an 89% chance of a 25-bps cut next week. WGC reported net purchases of 53 tons in October, strongest monthly buying of 2025. Gold dipped below $4,200 as markets await U.S. jobless claims and Challenger layoffs, though softening labor trends, cooling growth, robust central-bank demand, and an expected Fed rate cut keep the near-term outlook supportive.

Crude Oil – WTI crude oil surged to $59.6/bbl yesterday as the meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump's top envoys ended without any peace deal. Putin stated that Russia does not seek a conflict with Europe, while issuing a strong warning about the consequences should Europe initiate one. Trump also reiterated that the United States intends to launch strikes against drug cartels operating within Venezuela very soon, heightening concerns over potential supply disruptions. However, sharp upside in crude was capped by an increase in US crude oil and product inventories. EIA reported crude stocks rose by 600,000 barrels during the week ending November 28, while gasoline and distillates also saw builds of 4.5 million barrels and 2.1 million barrels respectively. Today, oil prices inched up to $59.3/bbl as pause in progress on a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and the buildup of U.S. forces near Venezuela contributed to a modest risk premium.

Natural Gas – Nymex natural gas futures surged above $5/mmBtu for the first time since 2022 as cold mid-December weather forecasts boosted expectations of significant storage drawdowns.

Base metals – Base metals extended gains in the previous session, led by copper, which surged more than 3% to close near $11,480/ton, while aluminium also advanced over 1%. Copper’s rally was driven by mounting supply concerns and a weaker U.S. dollar, with sentiment intensifying after LME data showed the largest spike in warehouse withdrawal requests since 2013, particularly across Asia. This reinforced expectations of tightening availability as large volumes continue flowing to the U.S. in anticipation of potential tariffs. Despite lingering demand uncertainty, particularly in China, supply narrative remains dominant, aided by reduced output guidance from major producers. Base metals edged higher as sharp withdrawal spikes from LME warehouses, tariff woes, and softer dollar lift sentiment.

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