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2026-09-30 11:34:57 am | Source: HDFC Sescurities Ltd
Commodity Daily Insights 30th Sept 2026 By - HDFC Securities Ltd
Commodity Daily Insights 30th Sept 2026 By - HDFC Securities Ltd

GLOBAL MARKET ROUND UP

Gold prices held steady on Wednesday but remained on track for a monthly decline as elevated oil prices, higher Treasury yields and a firm U.S. dollar continued to weigh on bullion. Market attention has now shifted to key U.S. economic data, particularly the PCE inflation reading, which is expected to provide further clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. The U.S. dollar remained on course for a monthly gain, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies and limiting the upside in precious metals. Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams said policymakers may need only one more rate hike this year to bring inflation back towards the Fed’s 2% target

The PCE inflation reading could prove crucial for the near-term direction of gold. A softer-than-expected reading could ease pressure on yields and the dollar, potentially supporting a recovery towards the $4,200–$4,300 range. Conversely, a hotter reading could push yields and the dollar higher, increasing selling pressure and potentially testing the $4,100 level.

Crude oil prices were mixed in early Asian trading as signs of a faster-than-expected recovery in Saudi Arabia’s oil production weighed on the market. Crude flows through Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline are recovering more quickly than initially anticipated, while the kingdom’s exports rose to 5.8 million barrels per day in September, the highest level since February 2026. Saudi Arabia has also resumed loading vessels at the Red Sea port of Yanbu through the East-West pipeline, easing concerns over prolonged supply disruptions. In the U.S., the government plans to release up to 40 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as the country faces soaring fuel prices. Industry data also showed that U.S. crude inventories increased by around 1 million barrels last week, pointing to some improvement in domestic supply availability

Copper prices are finding some support from improving economic activity in China, with the latest PMI data providing a constructive signal for industrial-metal demand. China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in September, moving back above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction, while the nonmanufacturing PMI increased to 50.2. The improvement points to a modest recovery in overall business activity and could provide some support to copper demand in the near term

Gold

• Trading Range: 145700 to 150900

• Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Gold Mini Nov Fut at 148450-148475 SL 147700 Target 149400/149780

 

Silver

• Trading Range: 225050 to 233700

• Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Silver Mini Nov Fut at 227450-227475 SL 225900 Target 229150/229900

 

Crude Oil

• Trading Range: 8420 to 8900

• Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Crude Oil Oct Fut at 8515-8519 SL 8435 Target 8680/8775

 

Natural Gas

• Trading Range: 280 to 306

• Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Natural Gas Oct Fut at 289-289.5 SL 284 Target 295.80/299

 

Copper

• Trading Range: 1388 to 1417

• Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Copper Oct Fut at 1401-1402 SL 1397.0 Target 1409/1412.0

 

Zinc

• Trading Range: 412 to 427

• Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Zinc Oct Fut at 417.0- 417.50 SL 414.0 Target 422.5/423.8

 

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