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Gold

Gold settled marginally lower by 0.05% at Rs1,48,823, as investors remained cautious ahead of key US economic data that could provide fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. Markets are currently pricing a 68% probability of a Fed rate hike in October and a 95% probability of another increase in December, keeping pressure on non-yielding bullion. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that persistently high inflation could cause consumers to become accustomed to elevated prices, reinforcing expectations that monetary policy may remain restrictive. Investors are closely watching Wednesday’s ADP employment report, PCE inflation data and comments from several Fed policymakers for further direction. Meanwhile, physical demand in India improved modestly as the recent price correction encouraged buying ahead of the festive season. Indian dealers quoted discounts of up to $43 per ounce, narrowing from discounts of up to $60 last week, while purchases by jewellers increased as the week progressed. Asian demand remained broadly steady, with Singapore premiums at $1.70-$2.50, Hong Kong premiums at $1.70-$2.00 and Japan trading between a $0.25 discount and $0.50 premium. London vault holdings stood at 9,534 tonnes at end-July 2026, up 0.74% month-on-month and valued at approximately $1.2 trillion. Goldman Sachs maintained its end-2027 gold forecast at $5,400 per ounce, stating that tighter monetary policy may slow the near-term appreciation path without changing the longer-term outlook. It warned that three additional rate hikes could push prices toward $4,070 before a recovery toward $4,200 by end-2026, supported by continued central-bank purchases. Technically, fresh selling pressure emerged as open interest increased 5.33% to 15,587 while prices declined Rs74. Gold is currently finding support at Rs1,47,905, and a sustained break below this level could open the way toward Rs1,46,990. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs1,49,980, above which prices could test Rs1,51,140.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 146990-151140.

* Gold settled flat as investors watch for US economic data that could offer clues on Fed’s interest rate outlook.

* Trump says he has not offered Iran anything to end the war

* Fed's Cook sees further inflationary pressures ahead

Silver

Silver settled down 0.88% at Rs2,25,450 as persistent uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations kept oil prices elevated, increasing inflation concerns and strengthening expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening. Markets are now pricing around a 70% probability of a Fed rate hike in October, while New York Fed President John Williams said another rate increase by year-end is reasonable and emphasized the need to return inflation to target. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack highlighted elevated inflation and government debt concerns as factors behind higher long-term Treasury yields, while Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin noted that inflation pressures are spreading beyond energy and tariff-related shocks. Rising Treasury yields and expectations of tighter monetary policy continued to weigh on non-yielding silver. Investors are now focused on the US PCE inflation report and nonfarm payrolls data for additional clues on the Fed’s policy trajectory. Meanwhile, London silver vault holdings stood at 28,213 tonnes at end-July 2026, up 0.5% month-on-month and valued at approximately $52.7 billion. The global silver market is expected to remain in structural deficit for a sixth consecutive year, with 762 million troy ounces drawn from stocks since 2021, increasing the risk of renewed liquidity tightness. The 2026 deficit is projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces from 40.3 million ounces in 2025, despite total demand expected to decline 2%. Industrial silver fabrication is forecast to fall 3% to a four-year low amid weaker economic activity, while coin and bar demand is expected to rise 18%, supported by stronger US buying. Total global supply is forecast to decline 2% as producer hedging normalizes. Technically, silver remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 3.3% to 16,983 while prices declined Rs1,992. Silver is currently finding support at Rs2,24,060, and a sustained break below this level could open the way toward Rs2,22,665. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs2,27,290, and a decisive move above this level could trigger a recovery toward Rs2,29,125.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 222665-229125.

* Silver dropped amid increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten policy further to curb inflation.

* Fed's Williams said inflation faces significant challenges.

* Markets are now pricing in roughly a 70% probability of a Fed rate increase in October.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled down 2.61% at Rs8,678 as investors focused on signs of recovering exports from the Middle East, while lingering uncertainty over the US-Israeli war with Iran continued to keep supply risks elevated. Saudi Arabia resumed oil loadings from its Red Sea port of Yanbu after restarting operations on the East-West Pipeline, improving the outlook for regional exports and reducing some immediate concerns over disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil flows. The International Energy Agency said its member states could discuss additional strategic reserve releases if required, while renewed US-Iran diplomatic efforts showed limited progress after President Donald Trump rejected reports that concessions had been offered to Tehran. Bank of America raised its Brent crude forecast for the second half of 2026 to $95 per barrel from $83, citing prolonged geopolitical tensions as its base-case scenario, while warning that prolonged disruptions into 2027 could push front-month Brent above $150. Meanwhile, US crude inventories increased by 3 million barrels to 426.4 million barrels in the week ended September 18, compared with expectations for a 641,000-barrel draw. Cushing stocks rose 2.3 million barrels to 23.7 million barrels, while refinery crude runs declined by 519,000 barrels per day and utilization fell 2.8 percentage points to 94%. Gasoline inventories declined 1.7 million barrels to 206 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell 0.4 million barrels to 107.4 million barrels. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, marking its fifth consecutive downward revision, while the IEA warned that shrinking inventories and stretched refining capacity could tighten the market further if Middle East disruptions persist into 2027. Technically, crude oil is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 8.75% to 12,945 while prices fell Rs233. Support is placed at Rs8,517, and a sustained break below this level could lead to Rs8,356. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs8,982, above which prices could test Rs9,286.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8356-9286.

* Crude oil prices declined as investors focused on signs of recovering crude exports from the region.

* Saudi Arabia has resumed oil loadings from its Red Sea port of Yanbu after restarting operations on the East-West Pipeline

* IEA member states will discuss strategic oil reserve releases if needed, Birol says

Natural gas

Natural gas settled down 2.1% at Rs293.7 as expectations of rising US production weighed on prices following the return to service of the Mountaineer XPress pipeline in West Virginia. The Columbia Gas Transmission unit of TC Energy lifted the force majeure on the pipeline, which had affected around 1.4–1.8 billion cubic feet per day of flows from the Marcellus and Utica shale regions, raising expectations of stronger supplies in the coming days. LSEG reported average US Lower 48 gas production at 112.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in September, matching the record monthly level seen in August, although daily output was expected to fall temporarily to 107.5 bcfd due partly to pipeline maintenance. US gas inventories also remained an important market factor, with the Energy Information Administration reporting a 53 billion cubic feet storage injection for the week ended September 18, matching analyst expectations but below the 77-bcf build recorded during the same week last year and the five-year average increase of 76 bcf. Despite strong summer demand for power generation, inventories have remained supported by record production. The EIA expects US dry gas production to rise from 107.6 bcfd in 2025 to 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is projected at 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027. LNG exports are forecast to increase to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027. Meanwhile, speculative net shorts declined by 27,105 contracts to 27,158, indicating a substantial reduction in bearish positioning. Technically, natural gas is under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased 7.51% to 41,708 while prices declined Rs6.3. Support is placed at Rs289.7, and a sustained break below this level could lead to Rs285.6. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs300.7, and a decisive move above this level could trigger a recovery toward Rs307.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 285.6-307.6.

* Natural gas dropped on expectations daily output will soon rise with the return to service of the Mountaineer XPress pipe

* Average gas output in the US Lower 48 states rose to 112.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September

* Record output and mild spring weather have allowed energy firms to keep the amount of gas in inventory above five-year average since March

Copper

Copper settled down 0.24% at Rs1,401.9 as a stronger US dollar and concerns over weakening Chinese demand continued to weigh on market sentiment. Rising oil prices above $100 per barrel have also increased concerns over global economic activity, potentially limiting industrial metal demand. Chinese restocking ahead of the seven-day National Day holiday has slowed, while Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories declined 15.9% from the previous week to 47,147 tonnes. In contrast, LME copper stocks fell by 875 tonnes to 251,350 tonnes, although only around half of the material is reportedly available to the market. US COMEX inventories have increased for six consecutive sessions and moved above 700,000 tonnes, reflecting continued concerns over potential import tariffs next year. Supply-side developments remained mixed. Chilean copper production declined 9.4% in July, with Codelco output falling 5% year-on-year to 112,800 tonnes and Escondida production dropping 22.1% to 89,400 tonnes, while Collahuasi output increased 12.3% to 38,400 tonnes. Chilean production was affected by severe weather and maintenance, with Cochilco expecting output to decline around 2.5% in 2026 before recovering next year. Peru recorded a 3.7% year-on-year increase in July production to 236,515 tonnes, while January-July output rose 2.2% to 1.6 million tonnes. The global refined copper market recorded a 51,000-tonne deficit in July, narrowing from 74,000 tonnes in June, while the first seven months showed a 32,000-tonne surplus compared with a 157,000-tonne surplus a year earlier. July refined output stood at 2.41 million tonnes against consumption of 2.46 million tonnes. China’s unwrought copper imports fell to 382,000 tonnes in August from 425,000 tonnes in July, while January-August imports declined 6.7% year-on-year to 3.30 million tonnes. Technically, copper is under long liquidation as open interest declined 1.4% to 8,939 while prices fell Rs3.35. Support is placed at Rs1,396.5, below which prices could test Rs1,391.1, while resistance is seen at Rs1,407.8, above which prices may test Rs1,413.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1391.1-1413.7.

* Copper prices dropped amid strong dollar, and concerns about demand in China continued to weigh on sentiment.

* COMEX inventories have risen for six straight days to over 700,000 tons for the first time.

* Restocking activities before China's seven-day National Day holiday that's set to begin on Thursday are slowing, adding to demand worry.

Zinc

Zinc settled up 0.84% at Rs419.8, supported by tightening supply conditions and production disruptions across major producing regions, although gains were limited by concerns over weakening Chinese demand. China’s industrial profits increased 15.7% year-on-year during the first eight months of 2026, slowing from 17.6% growth in January-July as subdued domestic demand offset strength in high-tech and AI-related manufacturing. China’s zinc production also contracted for the first time in nearly a year in August, declining 1.8% year-on-year to 639,000 tonnes, marking its weakest annual performance since May 2025. Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventories declined 1.9% from the previous week, reinforcing near-term supply tightness. Meanwhile, Nyrstar announced a strategic review of its Dutch zinc smelting operations, adding to uncertainty over future refined supply. Glencore reported own-sourced zinc production of 365,600 tonnes in the first half of 2026, down 99,600 tonnes or 21% year-on-year, while Boliden’s zinc concentrate production declined 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes. The global refined zinc market shifted into a 31,400-tonne deficit in June from a 22,400-tonne surplus in May, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group. However, the market remained in a surplus of 120,000 tonnes during the first six months of 2026, compared with a 74,000-tonne surplus during the same period of 2025. Sentiment was also influenced by expectations of increased Chinese export deliveries to the LME and weakness in copper amid changing tariff expectations. Technically, zinc is under short covering as open interest declined 0.87% to 2,505 while prices gained Rs3.5. Zinc is currently finding support at Rs417.2, and a sustained break below this level could lead to Rs414.4. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs421.6, and a decisive move above this level could trigger further recovery toward Rs423.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 414.4-423.2.

* Zinc gains supported by tightening supply and disruptions across major producing regions.

* However upside was capped as softening economic data from China weighed on the demand outlook.

* Smelter Nyrstar said it was launching a strategic review of its Dutch zinc smelting operations.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled down 0.97% at Rs343.15 as prospects of improving supply and a stronger US dollar weighed on prices, while rising Chinese exports added to concerns over global availability. Several smelters are preparing to restart previously idled capacity, while others are advancing expansion plans, potentially improving supply in the coming months. Chinese aluminium exports climbed 17.2% year-on-year in August as subdued domestic demand and elevated inventories encouraged greater overseas shipments. Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminium inventories declined 4.7% from the previous week, while LME inventories remained near a 36-year low, indicating a mixed physical market. Aluminium Bahrain was producing at an annualized rate of 1.3 million tonnes, 19% below pre-war capacity after production lines 1, 2 and 3 were shut following disruptions to exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Japanese aluminium inventories at three major ports increased 22.7% month-on-month to 246,600 tonnes at end-August. Alcoa reduced its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes to 9.5–9.6 million tonnes following operational disruptions at its Pinjarra refinery in Western Australia. Global primary aluminium output declined 1.7% year-on-year in August to 6.172 million tonnes, according to the International Aluminium Institute. China’s unwrought aluminium and semi-finished exports reached 643,000 tonnes in July, up 18.6% year-on-year, while January-July exports increased 16.7% to 4.04 million tonnes. Meanwhile, China’s primary aluminium production hit a record 3.98 million tonnes in August, up 4.7% year-on-year, with January-August output rising 3.9% to 31.12 million tonnes. Strong smelter margins encouraged producers to maximise output despite the longstanding 45-million-tonne capacity ceiling. Technically, aluminium is under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased 3.55% to 4,140 while prices declined Rs3.35. Support is placed at Rs340.8, and a sustained break below this level could lead to Rs338.4. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs347, above which prices could test Rs350.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 338.4-350.8.

* Aluminium dropped as prospects of improving supply and a stronger US dollar weighed on prices.

* Several smelters are working to restart and bring previously idled capacity back online.

* Rising Chinese exports are also helping to offset some of the supply losses from the Gulf.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled up 0.28% at Rs21,486 amid tight hand-to-mouth supply, lower-than-expected sowing expansion in key growing regions and concerns that deficient rainfall could affect the developing crop and upcoming harvest. Carry-forward stocks have declined significantly over the past three to four years, with industry estimates placing current stocks near 15 lakh bags compared with more than 20 lakh bags last season, reducing the overall availability buffer. Continued dryness during early crop development could adversely affect yields and provide further price support. However, the revival of monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka has eased immediate weather concerns, while improved reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have supported water availability during the vegetative phase. Re-sowing has also been completed in North Karnataka following rainfall, with crop conditions showing improvement. Supply remains structurally tight because of lower production and reduced carryover stocks, although increased farmer selling during the peak harvest period and cautious stockist activity have limited stronger gains. Tighter European Union Maximum Residue Limit regulations have resulted in rejection of non-IPM compliant lots, putting pressure on commercial-grade turmeric, while growing demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric is supporting compliant stocks. India’s turmeric exports declined 10% year-on-year to 13,489 tonnes in July 2026 from 15,071 tonnes a year earlier. However, cumulative exports during April-July increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes from 63,020 tonnes, supported by strong growth to several destinations. Exports to Turkey rose 431% to 3,007 tonnes, Sri Lanka increased 644% to 156 tonnes and Nigeria surged 983% to 69 tonnes. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, prices ended at Rs20,421.65, down 1.22%. Technically, turmeric is under fresh buying as open interest increased 1.26% to 37,765 while prices gained Rs60. Support is placed at Rs21,250, and a sustained break below this level could lead to Rs21,012. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs21,658, above which prices could test Rs21,828.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 21012-21828.

* Turmeric gains amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation, and fears of El Nino impact the crop.

* Prices were up due to deficient rain and fear of the crop being affected.

* The carryforward stocks we had in the past 3-4 years have declined.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20421.65 Rupees dropped by -1.22 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled up 0.48% at Rs22,170, supported by tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds, although gains remained limited by aggressive farmer selling and subdued bulk demand. Physical crop availability remains broadly stable, but export-grade high-purity bold seed supplies are declining faster than expected, while daily arrivals at major markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan have started to taper. Blight outbreaks in key Gujarat pockets have affected both crop quality and harvestable quantities, while favorable weather across North-West India enabled faster harvesting and drying, accelerating deliveries. Farmers are actively liquidating stocks to generate cash flow ahead of the next season, while rising NCDEX warehouse stocks have reduced immediate procurement urgency. Large industrial spice grinders continue to follow hand-to-mouth buying and lean pipeline replenishment rather than aggressive forward coverage. European and North American buyers have returned for residue-compliant and high-specification lots, providing selective demand support, although Middle East geopolitical instability continues to affect logistics and traditional buying interest. Production estimates indicate Indian jeera output may decline to 90–92 lakh bags from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. Outside India, China production is estimated at 70,000–80,000 tonnes, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce around 9,000–10,000 tonnes, 10,000–11,000 tonnes and 10,000–12,000 tonnes respectively. India’s jeera exports declined 32% year-on-year to 9,318 tonnes in July 2026, while cumulative April-July exports fell 27% to 53,462 tonnes. Singapore exports surged 889% to 2,842 tonnes and Libya increased 450% to 341 tonnes, but exports to China plunged 88% to 710 tonnes. In Unjha, spot prices ended at Rs22,059, gaining 0.29%. Technically, jeera is under short covering as open interest declined 3.25% to 6,252 while prices gained Rs105. Support is placed at Rs22,050, below which prices could test Rs21,910. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs22,270, above which prices could test Rs22,350.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21910-22350.

* Jeera gained amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* India’s jeera exports declined 32% YoY to 9,318 tonnes in July-2026 from 13,779 tonnes in July-2025.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22059 Rupees gained by 0.29 percent.

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