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Below the Comment on NSE listing by Ratiraj Tibrewal, Director, Choice Capital Advisors

1) Given NSE’s muted listing, what does the performance of past large IPOs tell us about the ability of mega IPOs to sustain gains after listing?

Size alone doesn't decide it. The track record is mixed because pricing matters more than anything else. LIC, Paytm and GIC were priced for the story, and investors have spent years waiting for the business to catch up. LG Electronics and ICICI Prudential Life left something on the table at the IPO, and that's why they've done well since.
The other pattern is supply. Large issues usually have a big pool of existing holders waiting to sell once lock-ins end, and that caps the upside for months. A muted listing on its own says very little. What happens over the next year depends on earnings, not day one.


2)With several large IPOs still trading below their issue prices, what will determine whether NSE can outperform its issue price over the next 6–12 months?

Three things. First, whether derivatives volumes hold up after the STT increase, and whether NSE can stop losing index options share. That line is 60 percent of revenue. Second, the regulatory direction. Another SEBI move on derivatives would hit sentiment straight away.
Third, the lock-in. Pre-IPO shareholders can sell from around late March 2027, and that is a real supply overhang. On the positive side, FY26 profit was pulled down by a one-time SEBI settlement charge. Clean quarterly numbers without it should make earnings look better from here.


3)Is NSE’s muted debut mainly a function of valuation and supply, or does it reflect broader investor caution toward large IPOs?

Mostly valuation and supply. At around 47 times earnings the pricing was full, with limited room for a listing pop. It is also a pure offer for sale, so the market is absorbing shares from existing holders rather than funding growth. And the derivatives question has not been settled.
I wouldn't read it as investors turning against large IPOs. LG and ICICI Prudential show the market still rewards big issues when the price is right. NSE is a strong business priced close to fair value, and a quiet start is what that usually looks like.

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