Clouds gather over rupee on tariff worries, persistent outflows
The Indian rupee is expected to open slightly weaker on Friday, with traders expecting the currency to hold a depreciation bias in the near term amid worries over the impact of steep U.S. tariffs on Indian exports and persistent portfolio outflows.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 87.65-87.70 range versus the U.S. dollar, compared with 87.5950 in the previous session.
The rupee declined about 2% in July, with U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of a 25% levy on Indian goods, alongside an unspecified penalty, pushing it closer to its all-time low of 87.95.
Economists estimate that the 25% tariff announced could shave off the South Asian nation's growth in 2025-26 by up to 40 basis points, but analysts and investors also reckon that India may be able to achieve a lower rate via negotiations.
"India remains a strategic partner for the U.S. and stands to benefit from opening up its large market. We, therefore, believe there is a path forward and expect India will eventually secure a relatively favourable deal," analysts at BMI said in a note.
A tariff on pharmaceutical exports from India, if implemented, would have a more serious impact on India's growth, the note added.
Uncertainty on trade is also expected to be a near-term drag on foreign investors' outlook on Indian equities. Overseas investors net pulled out over $600 million from local stocks on Thursday, per provisional exchange data.
The 25% tariff may mark the beginning of protracted negotiation, but "India needs some positive news to grab foreign investors’ interest as they have continued to dump Indian equities and North Asia, with its value, income and reform tilt is faring much more strongly," said Sat Dhura, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors.
"It will take more than a trade announcement to reverse that," Dhura said.
Meanwhile, Asian currencies were down between 0.1% and 0.5% on the day, while slimmed hopes of a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in September helped the dollar cling to the 100 handle, its highest in about two months.
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 87.77; onshore one-month forward premium at 13 paisa
** Dollar index at 100.09
** Brent crude futures down 0.1% at $71.6 per barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.38%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $18.6mln worth of Indian shares on Jul. 30
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $6mln worth of Indian bonds on Jul. 30
