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We hosted Mr. Sumant Sinha, Chairman and CEO of ReNew, as a part of the CEO Track at AGIC CY25. Here are our key insights from the session:

Multiple tailwinds driving renewable energy growth

Mr. Sinha believes governments around the world are increasingly pushing for clean energy adoption, creating strong momentum for renewable energy (RE). A significant milestone was set at COP28 in 2023 (held in Dubai), where the target was set to triple installed capacity for RE. However, the primary driver now is economics rather than just government policy. As technology evolves, costs are expected to continue declining, making RE increasingly relevant and essential. He also emphasized that the actual impact of climate change is progressing much faster than anticipated, though often under-recognized. This urgency is prompting governments worldwide to accelerate their push for RE adoption.

India’s RE capacity and growth outlook

RE's share in the energy mix is projected to keep growing substantially. India, in particular, is at a crucial point where RE is the key driver of capacity growth. While coal remains important to manage constraints where RE growth lags, its role is gradually being limited. India needs an annual RE capacity addition of 60-70 GW to meet its energy requirements and goals. In FY24, about 18-19 GW of renewable energy capacity was added. This rose sharply to around 30 GW in FY25 and will potentially rise to 40 GW in FY26. As RE capacity installations continue at a brisk pace, demand for renewable energy is not expected to be a constraint. Under the Viksit Bharat Plan 2047, India aims to add a monumental 2,000 GW of renewable energy capacity. While achieving the interim milestone of 500 GW is significant, it is not the final goal. India’s net zero plan targets no new fossil fuel additions by 2070, underscoring the long-term commitment to clean energy.

Regulatory tailwinds and technology progress to unlock new demand avenues

The government’s drive to indigenize module production is unlikely to stop at solar cells and could, eventually, encompass wafers, ingots, polysilicon, batteries, and inverters over the coming years. This is notable as several domestic manufacturing players have already started making investments in allied sectors/components such as ingots/wafers/batteries. Despite the easier and cheaper option of importing from China, India wants to avoid worsening its already large trade deficit with China (around USD100 billion). Over time, as India establishes its manufacturing ecosystem, costs will decline, enabling self-sufficiency and even potential exports. The government’s vision is to transition to green hydrogen, which is currently about twice as expensive as grey hydrogen but is expected to become more affordable within the next 4-5 years. Green hydrogen will be a major driver for renewable energy expansion. According to current estimates, every 1 mmtpa of green hydrogen production requires ~20 GW of RE capacity, which means the government’s target of producing 5 mmtpa of GH domestically may involve additional RE capacity installation of 100 GW.

ReNew’s strategic focus areas

Mr. Sinha emphasized that ReNew is focused on building two long-term competitive advantages: scale, which enables the lowest cost of production, and backward integration, which is critical for survival given policymakers’ emphasis on creating an end-to-end value chain. ReNew currently has an 11.1GW commissioned capacity and has pioneered Round-the-Clock (RTC) renewable energy projects that deliver base-load power by combining solar, wind, and battery energy storage systems (BESS). On the manufacturing front, the company operates 6.5 GW of solar module capacity with 2.5 GW of operational cell capacity and plans to add another 4 GW of cell capacity in the near term. Additionally, ReNew has secured 30 GW of connectivity until 2030 and beyond, ensuring visibility for sustained long-term growth.

Market dynamics shifting towards complex tenders

There is an overcapacity in solar module manufacturing (around 100 GW ALMMcompliant capacity). However, cell manufacturing capacity is still insufficient, and smaller players may struggle to keep up. In the current solar market, vanilla bids for daytime power are no longer common. Instead, the focus has shifted to more complex tenders involving solar plus battery storage, RTC, and hybrid power projects. ReNew is uniquely positioned here, being the only company with operational RTC projects and the largest wind capacity in India. In the last two years, 70-80 GW of power purchase agreements (PPAs) have been signed, and it is expected that majority of the pending bids will be finalized as DISCOMs make decisions.

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