Buy Ultratech Cement Ltd for the Target Rs. 15,210 by Choice Institutional Equities
Key Conference Call Highlights
Guidance and growth outlook
* UTCEM remains on track to expand capacity by an additional 37 MTPA, targeting 242.5+ MTPA by FY28, while also evaluating growth plans beyond the 240 MTPA milestone
* Management expects sustainable volume growth of 7–8% CAGR, with an aspiration to deliver double-digit volume growth in FY27
* The company plans to maintain an annual capex run-rate of INR 80– 100 bn, supported by a fully funded expansion
* UTCEM remains committed to its sustainability roadmap, targeting 85% green power utilisation by FY30
Margin improvement levers
* Turnaround of acquired assets continues to gain momentum, with India Cements' EBITDA/t improving to INR 497 in Q4FY26 from INR 333 in Q2FY26 and INR 305 in Q3FY26. Management targets >INR 1,000/t EBITDA by FY28, while Kesoram is already operating near this level
* The West Asia conflict led to temporary cost pressures through higher fuel, freight and packaging costs, including an incremental INR 900 Mn bag cost impact in March and a non-cash forex MTM hit of INR 120–130/t on EBITDA
* Management remains confident of delivering efficiency gains beyond the guided INR 300/t by FY28, having already achieved around INR 185/t of savings
Pricing environment
* Realisations strengthened during Q4FY26, with grey cement prices rising ~2.5% across most regions, aided by premiumisation and an improved trade mix
* Completion of brand migration for India Cements and Kesoram assets supported realisation gains, benefiting from UTCEM’s stronger premium brand positioning
* Industry pricing remained broadly stable through FY26, with fluctuations limited to 0–5%, while recent price hikes in April were aimed at offsetting input cost inflation
* Management believes current pricing actions are adequate to absorb cost increases, barring any sharp currency depreciation or significant diesel price escalation
* Given the fragmented industry structure, steep price hikes remain difficult; however, pricing improvements are typically more visible during Q1
Sustainability and ESG roadmap
* UTCEM continues to scale its renewable energy platform, with installed green energy capacity reaching 1.8 GW
* Currently, 43% of total power requirements are met through green energy, with a roadmap to increase this to 85% by FY30
* The company is targeting a 1.54x clinker conversion ratio by FY28, supporting both sustainability objectives and long-term profitability
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SEBI Registration no.: INZ 000160131
