Buy Tata Motors Ltd For Target Rs.900 - Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
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JLR 3QFY24 wholesales at 101k units (est. 100k units)
Retails (incl CJLR) grew 29% YoY
Wholesale volumes grew 27% YoY and 4% QoQ
* JLR’s wholesale volumes (ex-China JV) grew 27% YoY/4% QoQ to 101k units (est. 100k units). 9MFY24 wholesales grew 28% YoY to 291.1k units.
* The company did not share a breakup between Jaguar and LR wholesales. Wholesales for RR Sport/RR/Defender grew 49%/12%/14% YoY.
Retail volumes (incl. China JV) up 29% YoY/2% QoQ
* 3Q retails grew 29% YoY (+2% QoQ) to 109.1k units, while 9MFY24 retails increased by 26% to 317.7k units. Retails were higher in all the markets, with strong growth witnessed in the rest of world (+49% YoY), North America (+6% YoY), China (+28% YoY), UK (+55% YoY), and EU (+27% YoY).
* The order book declined by 20k units QoQ to 148k units in 3QFY24 (vs. 2Q order book of 168k units) due to increased order fulfilment. RR/RR Sport/Defender account for 76% of the order book.
Others
* As 3Q wholesales volumes were in line for JLR, there is no major change in the estimates.
* Valuation and view: We believe that while JLR will continue to see a healthy recovery, growth will moderate in TTMT’s PV and CV businesses in the coming years due to normal base and slowdown in the lower end PV and LCVs. The growth in JLR is likely to be supported by gradual recovery in global PV demand, a strong order book, and a favourable product mix. The stock trades at 18.3x/15.9x FY24E/FY25E consolidated EPS and 5.7x/4.6x FY24E/FY25E consolidated EV/EBITDA. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock with a TP of INR900 (based on Mar’26 SOTP).
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