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Strong fundamentals, but FY27E caution persists

After a weak standalone 9MFY26 performance, with revenue declining 16% YoY, NJCC reported a relatively stable Q4FY26, with revenue remaining broadly flat YoY and largely in line with estimates. EBITDA margin moderated to 8.4%, lower on a YoY basis but broadly in line with Street and our expectations. On the balance sheet front, the company delivered a meaningful improvement, with net debt reducing to Rs17bn versus Rs28bn in Q3FY26, while operating cash flow remained positive. Consolidated FY26 order inflows crossed Rs319bn, including a sizeable Rs115bn mining order, taking the total order book to a robust ~Rs830bn (~4.8x TTM revenue). Importantly, execution of key projects has started gaining traction, supported by mobilisation advances already received. Despite these positives, management refrained from providing FY27 guidance, citing geopolitical uncertainties or could be possibility of government austerity measures. We view this stance as largely conservative. Factoring in some near-term margin pressure, we cut FY27E/FY28E EPS estimates by 8%/2%, respectively. We maintain our Buy rating with a revised target price of Rs195, based on an unchanged 15x FY28E EPS. The stock trades close to ~1.2x FY28E BV (at last 10 years historical avg.)

Inline Quarter:

NCC reported standalone revenue of INR 53.1 bn, which remained flat YoY and was in line with both our estimates and consensus expectations. Revenue performance was impacted by slower execution, particularly in JJM projects, along with delays in payments. EBITDA stood at INR 4.5 bn, declining 9% YoY, and was also in line with our estimates and consensus. The contraction was primarily driven by input cost inflation, resulting in EBITDA margins moderating to 8.4% compared to 9.2% in the corresponding period last year. Adj. PAT came in at INR 2 bn, down 5% YoY. Profitability was further impacted by an impairment loss of INR 213 mn related to investments in the Oman project.

Order book Strong:

NCC reported a consolidated order book of INR 830 bn as of Q4FY26, implying a strong revenue visibility of ~4.8x its trailing twelve-month (TTM) revenue. The order book remains well-diversified, led by the buildings segment (27%), followed by Transportation (20%), Electrical T&D (17%), Mining (18%), and Irrigation & Others (6%). The standalone order book stood at INR 723 bn, with the balance attributable to subsidiaries. As of April 2026, the company has secured new orders worth INR 17 bn and indicated that it will continue to pursue order inflows selectively, based on a prudent risk–reward assessment.

Future Prospects and Capex guidance:

NCC highlighted a robust future bid pipeline of ~INR 2.5 tn across infrastructure segments, reflecting strong opportunity visibility, with a continued focus on selective bidding based on risk–reward amid macro uncertainties. Management remains confident in its execution capabilities to convert this pipeline into profitable orders over time. On the capex front, the company has guided for ~INR 5 bn in FY27, largely comprising INR 1–1.5 bn towards mining equipment for new projects and INR 3.5–4 bn for routine equipment replacement and augmentation. Capex is expected to remain calibrated and aligned with execution requirements and project pipeline visibility.

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