29-07-2024 02:21 PM | Source: Choice Broking Ltd
Buy Mahindra Lifespace Developers Ltd Rs. 723.4 By Choice Broking Ltd

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* During the quarter MLDL launches stood at 0.27mnsft (-27% YoY/-900% QoQ). Pre-sales for the quarter stood at Rs. 10,190 million (+195% YoY / -6% QoQ), and collections stood at Rs. 5400 million (+96% YoY / 31% QoQ). The management expects FY25 would be better as company looking to launch 7 projects. Regarding key launches, Vista Phase 2 and Navy society redevelopment in Mumbai, Citadel Phase 3 and Crown phase 2 in Pune along plotted development in Murud and Chennai will key in driving presales growth.

* Plotted development: Post the successful launches of its maiden plot in Chennai, MLDL is now fasttracking 2 nd plotted project in Chennai, Project Pink in Jaipur followed by multiple launches over 12- 18 months with total GDV of Rs.3k cr for the rest of the financial year. As plotted projects are high velocity in nature, and IRR is comparatively better than residential projects, we expect this would help in faster realization of funds and healthier cash flows to meet the long term growth plan of MLDL. They are also looking to monetize IC land in order to invest in Residential Projects, preferably plotted development. Looking for land parcels similar to Alibaug, Meridian.

? Key launches in MMR Region: The company expects the total Thane project value to be around Rs.70-80 billion (compared to the earlier expectation of Rs. 40 billion).The project is expected to launch by end of FY25 or Q1FY26 and will be 50% Commercial and 50% Residential as per the IITT Policy. We believe the successful delivery of the Thane project will be a key turning point for MLDL. Further, due to development of various infrastructure projects in and around Thane will support the growth in the realization also as per our assumption which is highly possible as Thane’s real estate market is one off fastest growing market in MMR region. In addition, the redevelopment projects in Malad and Santacruz will also contribute meaningfully.

* IC&IC segment velocity to remain muted :. During the quarter MLDL leased 18.8 acres of land to 7 customers for Rs.761mn in IC&IC segment. Management expects the leasing velocity to improve however it is a lumpy business by nature. For Origins Ahmedabad, they are getting many small requests for 2-3 acres but are not interested in leasing the park in pieces as they are looking to sell in single parcel to large anchor investors. They are optimistic about demand picking up in the next 2 years. The company's long-term plan remains to monetize the IC&IC business. They are on the cusp of finalizing a 3 rd land deal for sale.

Outlook & Valuation: Company is aiming to ramp up the launch pipeline in Tier-I cities (MMR, Bangalore and Pune) and expanding in to plotted development category (fast moving projects with comparatively better IRR). We maintain our positive view on the MLDL given the upcoming launches in the mid-income and Premium housing segment, plotted development, new projects in the premium Mumbai market with society redevelopment, better velocity and higher IRR plotted development projects, healthy debt profile, expanding geography, strong brand visibility and strong parentage background (categorizes MLDL in the growth gem category at the group level).At current level stock has mostly factored in all the positive in stock prices, key things to watch in near to medium term would be the Thane project launch, Progress on Mumbai’s redevelopment project, GDV addition momentum and fund raise plans . We recommend BUY rating on MLDL with a SoTP-based target price of Rs. 723.4.

 

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