Buy Greenply Industries Ltd For Target Rs. 1,177 By Choice Broking Ltd
The top line of the company has up by 5.4/9.7% YoY/QoQ basis to Rs 6.4bn vs our estimates Rs.5.5bn backed by better volumes in Plywood segment. However, Plywood segment revenue grew by of 7.6% YoY to Rs 5.1bn vs CEBPL est of Rs 4.2bn and margins improved by 14bps to 9% and MDF segment reported a revenue growth of 42% on YoY to 1.26bn vs CEBPL est of 1.23bn backed by healthy volume growth of 30% on YoY basis to 40,553CBM, MDF Realization grew by 8% YoY to 31,169/CBM backed by healthy pre lam MDF sales of 5,550CBM which translates 22% of overall MDF sales.
* Plywood Volumes Improved: Plywood segment Volumes grew by 7.8/13.8% on YoY/QoQ basis 20.2 Mn sqm vs 19.1mn sqm same period last year lead to Revenue improvement of 7.5% on YoY basis to Rs5,140mn , Realizations improved by 244bps to 251 Rs/sqm backed by price hikes of 2-3% in 1HFY25 and Margins grew by 70bps on YoY basis to 8.3%, The company maintained its plywood volume growth guidance of 8 to 10% YoY for FY25 it expects EBITDA margin to be flat on YoY basis on back of elevated Timber prices. Timber prices currently stands at Rs10.5/kg up by 14/8% on YoY/QoQ basis. Management is evaluating a new location for plywood plant.
* MDF Volume Impacted due to shut downs: MDF segment volume increased by 30% on YoY basis to 40,553/CBM vs CEBLP est of 42,000, Volumes impacted due to maintenance shut down of MDF plant for a week in the month of September capacity Utilization for Q2FY25 stands at 68%, whereas Realizations up by 8.6% to 31,169/CBM due to better mix of pre-lam MDF. MDF margins down by 160bps on YoY basis to 11.8% due to higher RM cost and employee expanses. MDF timbers prices up by 6/3% on YoY/QoQ basis to Rs6.5/kg. Management targeting 17 to 18% volume growth for H2 over H1 and maintained margin guidance of 16% for FY25 on the back of 1 to 1.5% price hike anticipated from 1 st Oct.
* JV with BV Samet: Company will incur Rs2.5bn in furniture hardware business out of which Rs1.5bn is already done, Management stated the some machines got delayed by a quarter. In Q2FY25 Co earned Rs 10mn of revenue from furniture business, Management targets Rs 400 to 500cr revenue in next 3 years with EBITDA margins of 25%. This machines have asset turn of 3x. Capex plans for FY25 is Rs500mn for FY25
* View and valuation: MTLM to witness healthy Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 16/28/42% CAGR over FY24-27E backed by 1) Strong position in plywood segment 2) expanding its MDF product range to capture more market share3) Strong brand call 4) strong distribution reach and better product offerings. We like to maintain our BUY rating on the stock led by with a TP of Rs. 395 (22x of Sept FY26E EPS).
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