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ARPU Growth in Focus; Africa - next growth lever

Performance in Q4FY26 remained resilient, driven by strong execution across both India and Africa businesses. In India, mobile ARPU grew 5.0% YoY to INR257, though it remained largely flat QoQ (INR259 in Q3FY26). Subscriber additions remained healthy at 4.7mn (vs. 4.4mn in Q3FY26), supporting mobile revenue growth of 8.3% YoY, while EBITDA improved 11.0% YoY. Home services continued to deliver robust performance, with revenue/EBITDA growing 37.3%/38.2% YoY respectively. The B2B business witnessed steady growth, with revenue and EBITDA increasing 3.3% and 5.4% YoY, respectively. However, the digital TV business remained under pressure, with revenue/EBITDA declining 2.3%/14.3% YoY. Consol. EBITDA grew 16.6%/2.3% YoY/QoQ to INR314.9bn in Q4FY26. Revenue and EBITDA in FY26 grew 22.0%/28.5% YoY. Management remains focused on driving ARPU growth through premiumization via bundled offerings, increasing postpaid penetration and continued rural network expansion. Further, management remains optimistic on Africa’s long-term opportunity and believes the region is on a growth trajectory like India over the last decade, which should support future growth. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a revised target price of INR2,216 (earlier INR2,266), based on an implied 12x FY28E EV/EBITDA for the India business, while additionally incorporating the value of investments in Airtel Africa, Indus Towers and Bharti Hexacom.

India Mobile business drives momentum:

Revenue grew 8.3% YoY to INR288.3bn, while remaining largely flat QoQ. Similarly, EBITDA increased 11.0% YoY to INR174.8bn and remained stable sequentially, supported by improving ARPU and continued growth in the subscriber base. ARPU remained healthy at INR257 in Q4FY26, up 5.0% YoY, but was flat QoQ, driven by premiumization, an improving customer mix and strong growth in smartphone data users. Bharti added 4.7mn subscribers in Q4FY26 versus 4.4mn in Q3FY26 and 5.0mn in Q4FY25. Within the overall additions, the postpaid segment added 0.8mn subscribers, taking the total postpaid base to 29.0mn. Going forward, premiumization through upgrades in consumption baskets & bundled offerings, increasing postpaid conversions, and stronger international roaming offerings are expected to drive ARPU growth. Factoring in these trends, we estimate Bharti’s subscriber base at 384mn/392mn and ARPU at INR267/276 for FY27E/FY28E, respectively.

India Home business momentum sustained:

Revenue remained resilient, growing at 37.3%/9.5% YoY/QoQ to INR21.9bn with an EBITDA of Rs11.0bn (+38.2%/+9.6%, YoY/QoQ). This was supported by sustained improvement in customer acquisitions, which grew by 1.1mn to a total of 14.2mn. However, ARPU remains a drag falling by -3.0% YoY at INR535/month. BHARTI aims to deepen its footprint on FTTH with accelerated home pass expansion.

India Digital services remain a drag:

Revenue remained under pressure, declining 2.3% YoY and 1.1% QoQ to INR7.5bn amid continued macro headwinds. EBITDA performance weakened further, declining 14.3% YoY and 5.1% QoQ to INR3.3bn. On the positive side, subscriber additions improved meaningfully to 570,000 in Q4FY26 vs 73,000 in Q3FY26, taking the total subscriber base to 16.0mn, primarily driven by stronger IPTV adoption. However, ARPU continued to remain under pressure, declining 1.9% YoY and 2.8% QoQ, acting as a drag on overall performance. Digital TV witnessed a turnaround during the quarter, with nearly 0.5mn customer additions. Management highlighted improving IPTV take rates, which is expected to support its broader converged content strategy.

Enterprise business revenue improves QoQ:

Revenue improved 3.3%/2.6% YoY/QoQ in Q4FY26 to INR54.9bn after showing weak performance in Q3FY26. EBITDA improved 5.4%/5.0% YoY/QoQ to Rs23.6bn, with an EBITDA margin of 42.9% vs 41.9% in Q3FY26 and 42.1% in Q4FY25. As per management, the business segment ended the quarter on a strong note, supported by a healthy order book and a robust pipeline across both domestic and international markets, with multiple wins from large enterprises. During the quarter, Bharti secured several deals across IoT, security, cloud, core connectivity and Nxtra offerings, resulting in a strong order book growth of 17% YoY in FY26.

Africa remains resilient:

Revenues grew 40.9% YoY and 6.8% QoQ to Rs160.3bn, while EBITDA stood at Rs78.9bn (+55.1% YoY, +8.0% QoQ). Revenue (CC) up 22% YoY in Q4FY26. Subscriber addition for Voice and Data stood at 4.2mn and 2.4mn vs 5.6mn and 3.7mn QoQ. Data ARPU remained flat at USD2.6 vs USD2.7 QoQ, while Voice ARPU remained flat at USD1.0 vs USD1.1 QoQ. Africa now accounts for 29% of revenues. Management increased its stake in Airtel Africa by a further 16.3%, reflecting confidence in the business outlook and long-term growth potential. The company believes Airtel Africa is on a growth trajectory similar to that witnessed in India over the last decade

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