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Brazil is expected to import 930,000 metric tons of soybeans in 2024, the highest level since 2003, as the country balances a slight reduction in domestic production with strong export demand. Abiove has trimmed its 2024 production estimate to 153 million tons, down from a previous forecast of 153.2 million tons, reflecting a smaller crop compared to last year’s record output of 160.3 million tons. Despite this, soybean exports are expected to remain unchanged at 97.8 million tons. Additionally, soy meal exports have been revised upward to 22 million tons. Conab estimates the 2023/24 crop at 147.38 million tons, a 4.7% decrease from the prior year.

Key Highlights

* Brazil's soybean imports forecast raised to 930,000 tons, highest since 2003.

* Abiove slightly trims production estimate to 153 million tons for 2024.

* Soybean exports forecast remains unchanged at 97.8 million tons for 2024.

* Brazil’s soy meal exports revised upwards to 22 million tons.

* Conab estimates 2023/24 crop at 147.38 million tons, down 4.7% from the prior year.

Brazil, the world's largest soybean producer and exporter, is forecasted to import 930,000 metric tons of soybeans in 2024, according to Abiove, marking the highest import level since 2003. This adjustment reflects a strategic opportunity rather than a response to lower domestic production, as Brazil capitalizes on imports from neighboring countries during a year of robust exports and local crushing. This marks a significant increase from the 181,000 tons imported last year.

On the production side, Abiove slightly lowered its 2024 estimate to 153 million tons, down from 153.2 million projected last month. This is a reduction from last year’s record output of 160.3 million tons, reflecting a less optimistic outlook, though the impact on prices remains uncertain as Brazil is expected to maintain high export levels.

Brazil’s soybean exports for 2024 are forecasted to remain steady at 97.8 million tons, while domestic crushing is projected at 54.5 million tons. Soy meal exports have been revised upwards to 22 million tons, highlighting strong demand in international markets. Meanwhile, Brazil’s national crop agency, Conab, maintains its forecast for the 2023/24 crop at 147.38 million tons, a 4.7% decline from the previous year's record.

These factors present a complex dynamic for Brazil's soybean market, balancing lower production with strategic imports and steady export demand.

Finally

Brazil’s soybean market faces a unique year of high imports and steady exports amid a slight production decline, ensuring continued global market dominance.

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