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Brazil's coffee market shows a mixed scenario for 2024/25. While total coffee production is estimated at 66.4 million bags, adverse weather has significantly impacted yields, especially for robusta coffee. Arabica production witnessed a marginal increase, reflecting the positive biennial cycle. Robust global demand, coupled with supply constraints in major producers like Vietnam, led to record exports and sharp price surges for both arabica and robusta varieties. Arabica prices rose nearly 80% year-on-year, while robusta recorded an unprecedented 120% increase. Despite logistical challenges, Brazil maintained its position as the leading global coffee exporter. Domestic consumption remains steady, though high retail prices and inflation are affecting growth. Experts foresee continued price volatility amid climatic uncertainties.

Key Highlights

* Brazil's coffee production for 2024/25 is estimated at 66.4 million bags.

* Robust global demand boosts exports, despite adverse weather impacts.

* Arabica prices rose by 80%, while robusta surged by 120% in 2024.

* Domestic consumption steady, but inflation impacts retail coffee prices.

* Logistical challenges at ports delay shipments but don't curb export records.

Brazil's coffee sector navigates a challenging yet dynamic year in the 2024/25 marketing season. Total production is forecast at 66.4 million 60-kg bags, a slight improvement over the previous season. Arabica production benefitted from the positive biennial cycle, reaching 45.4 million bags, while robusta production declined due to droughts and irregular rainfall, resulting in smaller bean sizes and reduced yields.

Prices have seen remarkable growth. Arabica coffee averaged R$1,490.14 per bag in October, marking a near 80% increase from 2023. Robust global demand for robusta, driven by supply constraints in Vietnam and Indonesia, pushed prices up by 120%, reaching R$1,416.72 per bag. Interestingly, robusta prices even surpassed arabica during September, reflecting its growing role in global markets.

Brazil's coffee exports achieved new heights, driven by strong international demand. The country exported a record 4.5 million bags in September 2024, with revenues increasing by over 84% compared to the same period in 2023. Major buyers include the U.S., Germany, and China, where demand for Brazilian coffee continues to grow. Domestically, inflation and rising retail coffee prices have tempered consumption growth, despite coffee remaining a staple beverage.

In conclusion, Brazil’s coffee market continues to dominate globally, but challenges such as climate volatility and logistical delays demand resilience. Price fluctuations are expected, keeping stakeholders alert in the coming months.

Finally

Brazil’s coffee market thrives on strong exports and record prices but faces challenges from adverse weather and logistics. Price volatility remains a key focus.

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