Bank Nifty opened with a positive gap-up and traded within the narrow range of 291 points throughout the session - ICICI Direct
Nifty : 24611
Technical Outlook
Day that was…
Nifty extended losses for the Eighth consecutive session amid weakness in Rupee ahead of the RBI policy. Nifty down marginally on First Tuesday’s Monthly Expiry and settled at 24611 down 24 points. Sectorally, Consumer Durables, Realty, and FMCG were the laggards. Whereas, PSU Bank, Metal and Auto outshone
Technical Outlook:
* Index witnessed jittery move and oscillated 390 points gyrating between gains and losses during the session. As a result, the daily price action formed bear candle with upper wick carrying lower-low indicating, extended breather.
* The current profit booking is more of retracement of prevailing uptrend as Nifty has retraced 80% past three weeks >1000 points up move. Meanwhile, it is important to note that, with >800 points decline Nifty has entered the oversold territory while trading in the vicinity of 100-day EMA, indicating possibility of impending pullback cannot be ruled out. Going ahead, a decisive close above 24800 would indicate pause in the down move and will eventually pave the way towards 25300 in coming weeks, failing to do so, we expect Nifty to consolidate amid stock specific action wherein strong support is placed in the range of 24400-24200 zone.
* Key point to highlight is that, since April 2025 lows of 21743 Nifty has rallied 18% within which there have been seven instances wherein intermediate corrections arrested within 3-5% range. In current scenario as well, we expect Nifty to maintain the same rhythm by arresting intermediate correction within 5%, value for the same is placed at 24200.
* On the structural front, we believe, current consolidation phase presents opportunities to accumulate quality stocks backed by strong earnings, particularly those positioned to benefit from next-generation GST reforms and upcoming festive season.
* The key support threshold of 24400-24200 zone is based on following observations:
* a) Over past four months key point to highlight is that, index has managed to defend the key support threshold of 24400 mark while absorbing host of negative news like geopolitical issues, India-Pakistan conflict, tariff concerns, quarterly earnings.
* b) The level of 24400 is aligning with the 200-day EMA and the previous gap support zone of 24,378–24,164, which indicates a high probability of demand emergence at lower levels and continuation of the primary up trend.
* In the current corrective phase, BFSI, Auto and Metal sectors have been showing resilience while short term structure of IT, Realty and Pharma have shown weakness, indicating prolonged underperformance going ahead. Hence, focus should be on domestic centric themes.
* Key Monitorable:
* a) Development on tariff negotiations.
* b) RBI Policy.
* c) Monthly Auto sales data post GST reforms implementation.
Nifty Bank : 54635
Technical Outlook
Day that was:
Bank Nifty extended its gain for second consecutive days and closed on a positive note to settle at 54,635 up 174 points. The Nifty PSU Bank index has relatively outperformed the benchmark, ending the day at 7,526 up 1.84%.
Technical Outlook:
* Bank Nifty opened with a positive gap-up and traded within the narrow range of 291 points throughout the session. As a result, the daily price action formed a small bull candle carrying wicks on both ends, indicating a period of consolidation phase in near term.
* Key point to highlight is that, the Index has broken its seven-session streak of lower-high-low formation by surpassing the previous session’s high, due to this the daily stochastic oscillator has witnessed bullish crossover from the oversold zone with a reading of 17, indicating the possibility of a short term trend reversal. Going ahead, the upcoming RBI policy outcome will be a key trigger, where any positive commentary could further add momentum and pave the way towards 55,500, being 80% retracement of the preceding decline (57,628-53,578).
* Following favorable GST reforms, focus now shifts to tariff negotiations, where any constructive outcome could act as a potential catalyst. Therefore, any dip from current levels should be seen as a buying opportunity, with immediate support placed near 54,000, representing the 80% retracement of the ongoing up move (53,561-55,835).
* Structurally, over the last eight weeks, the index has retraced only 38.2% of its preceding 16-week, 21% rally. This slower pace of retracement followed by a subsequent rebound which was the strongest of the last three recovery attempts reinforces the view of an underlying uptrend resumption.
* The PSU Bank Index outperformed the benchmark closing up ~2%. The daily price action continues to sustain well above all key moving averages, reaffirming inherent strength. A sustained close above the recent swing high of 7,567 would confirm cup & handle pattern breakout continuation and unlock further upside potential towards the measured move target of 7,700. On the downside, initial support is placed at 7,150, which aligns with the 50% retracement of the latest upswing (6,730–7,567) coincides with the 20-day EMA
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