IGI Logo

PAX rises due to robust demand; IndiGo’s share at ~65%

* Domestic air passenger (PAX) traffic grew ~11% YoY in Jan’25 to 14.6m (down ~2% MoM). Though it was above pre-Covid levels, passenger growth dipped MoM for all the airlines.

* The average domestic Passenger Load Factor (PLF) declined 60bp MoM in Jan’25. PLF rose MoM for Akasa while it declined for Indigo, Air India, and SpiceJet. The On-Time Performance (OTP) increased 140bp MoM for airlines; the domestic average was 65.5% in Jan’25. The cancellation rate increased 50bp to 1.5% in Jan’25.

* IndiGo’s market share improved following the collapse of GoFirst, which ceased operations in May’23. IndiGo has maintained over 60% share since then. Its market share has been increasing steadily during the past six months.

India's domestic air PAX and market share

* India's domestic air PAX increased ~11% YoY (decreased ~2% MoM) to 14.61m in Jan’25. Domestic PAX stood at 9.5m for IndiGo (up 20% YoY), 3.8m for AI group (down 2% YoY), 0.7m for Akasa (up 15% YoY), and 0.5m for SpiceJet (down 37% YoY).

* Domestic market share stood at 65.2% for IndiGo (up 490bp YoY), 25.7% for the Air India (AI) group (down 350bp YoY), 4.7% for Akasa (up 20bp YoY), and 3.2% for SpiceJet (down 240bp YoY).

Domestic industry’s PLF and OTP

* Domestic PLF stood at 77.5% in Jan’25 (78.1% in Dec’24 and 80.1% in Jan’24). PLF stood at 89.8% for IndiGo (down 140bp YoY), 84.4% for the AI group (down 290bp YoY), 93.7% for Akasa (down 130bp YoY), and 87.1% for SpiceJet (down 660bp YoY).

* The average OTP for domestic airlines at the top four airports was at 65.5% (up 800bp YoY/140bp MoM). OTP stood at 75.5% for IndiGo (up ~15pp YoY), 69.8% for Air India group (up ~22pp YoY), 71.5% for Akasa (down ~30bp YoY), and 54.8% for SpiceJet (up ~17pp YoY).

Other highlights

* The Air Turbine Fuel (ATF) price for Feb’25 is INR95,534/klit (down 5% YoY/up 6% MoM). For 4QFY25YTD, the ATF price is INR92,995, while it stood at INR89,998/klit in 3QFY25 (down 6% QoQ and 20% YoY). Currently, Brent crude stands at USD74/bbl (average of USD75.7/bbl in Feb’25 and USD77.5/bbl in 4QFY25YTD).

For More Research Reports : Click Here 

For More Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd Disclaimer
http://www.motilaloswal.com/MOSLdisclaimer/disclaimer.html
SEBI Registration number is INH000000412