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Overall Nov-24 auto dispatches were fairly healthy, despite the high festive base (entire festive in Oct this year vs spread over Oct-Nov last year). For Nov-24, TVSL continued to outperform across the domestic and exports segments, followed by EIM (RE). HMCL dispatches were restricted due to inventory correction, even as underlying festive retail growth was strong at 12% YoY. In PVs, M&M wholesales grew 16%, with MSIL volume up 10%. MHCV dispatches are turning positive at TTMT and AL with low single-digit growth, while tractor wholesales were strong with volume staying flat despite the festive mismatch. E-2W penetration fell to 4.6% (5.8% in FY25YTD), with volume down 15% MoM despite multiple launches recently; Ola continued to lose market share to TVSL, BJAUT, HMCL, with market share of incumbents at a 51% alltime high. Over the festive period (Sep-Nov), 2W wholesales saw double-digit YoY growth and PV volume rose by a single digit – TVSL and M&M the outperformers, resp.

2Ws – Healthy festive; TVSL outperforms in Nov-24; E-2Ws, especially Ola, weak

Festive dispatches (ie over Sep-Nov) for TVSL, HMCL, and Royal Enfield (RE) were 14%/10%/10% higher, respectively (BJAUT underperformed with ~3% growth). In Nov-24, TVSL outperformed with 6% domestic growth; HMCL’s domestic sales were lower ~8% YoY despite strong retails, due to inventory correction. Exports saw strong double-digit growth for both, BJAUT (up 26%) and TVSL (up 34%). Total 2W sales for TVSL/HMCL/BJAUT/RE stood at 392K (up 11.5%)/460K (down 6%)/368K (up 5.5%)/82K (up 2.5%), respectively. EV industry retails fell 15% MoM, with penetration among the lowest in the past year, at 4.6% (vs 5.8% in FY25YTD and 5.4% in FY24), despite multiple new launches in recent months. Incumbents TVSL, BJAUT, HMCL – all gained share (Ola’s share down by 440bps MoM to 24.5%).

PVs – M&M continues to outperform in Nov and the festive period; MSIL’s Nov dispatches up 10%

MSIL’s overall volumes grew 10% YoY to 181.5K units, led by 20%/25% growth in SUVs/exports and narrowing decline in small cars (refer to note); share of SUVs stood at 33% in Nov-24 vs 34%/30% in Oct-24/Nov-23. M&M outperformed with 16% domestic growth (46K units), while TTMT’s domestic PV volumes rose 2% to 47K units, and HMIL saw 7% overall decline to 61K units. Over Sep-Nov, M&M reported 22% YoY growth vs flattish performance/decline at peers.

CVs – Low single-digit MHCV growth for TTMT, AL; improving GoI capex to drive demand momentum

Domestic MHCV volumes for TTMT were up marginally, by ~1% to ~12.5K units; AL also reported growth, after 5 months of decline (up 2% YoY to 8K units). LCVs declined across both players, with overall CVs flattish at M&M. Industry MHCV retails fell 9%, with LCVs being flattish.

Tractors – Weak dispatches on festive mismatch; retails healthy

Domestic tractor dispatches rose 2% for M&M (31.8K units) and declined 8% for Escorts (8.7K units), affected by festive demand-supply mismatch. Industry retails grew 34% YoY for the month, with M&M/Escorts reporting 32%/19% YoY. Mgmt commentary remained positive amid expectations of ongoing improvement due to positive farm sentiment and cash flows.

Our view – Continue to favor 2Ws; CVs and tractors also attractive

We continue to prefer 2Ws on a relative basis amid the broadening recovery and potential of a replacement-led, 2-3-year visibility; we also believe CVs (link) and tractors (link) are likely to enter an upcycle from H2FY25E. In PVs, we prefer MSIL due to the new SUV launch in H2FY26 and potential small-car recovery.

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