IGI Logo

Weak retail trends across segments

The auto sector reported a weak set of numbers with PV, CV and tractor segment retail volumes declining on a yoy basis, whereas domestic 2W segment retail volumes growth moderated to low single digit on a yoy basis in June 2024. In terms of wholesale, domestic PV segment volumes grew by low single digit as inventory levels remain at elevated levels whereas CV and tractor wholesales trends were flat on a yoy basis. 2W domestic wholesale volumes grew by low double digit whereas the export segment remains weak.

Domestic PV wholesale volumes grew by low single digit yoy in June 2024

As per our estimates, domestic PV industry wholesale volumes increased by low single digit yoy due to muted retail trends on account of heat waves and absence of any festival during the month. Retail sales declined by high single digit yoy in June 2024. MSIL’s total volumes increased by 12% yoy in June 2024 led by strong growth in exports volumes (+57% yoy) and 6% yoy increase in domestic volumes. As per our estimates, MSIL’s wholesales market share stood at ~41% (+40 bps yoy). Tata Motors reported 8% yoy decline in PV volumes, whereas M&M’s volumes increased by 23% yoy in June 2024. Hyundai Motors reported flat growth whereas Toyota India posted a growth of 44% on a yoy basis in June 2024.

Domestic 2W wholesales witnessed low double-digit increase yoy in June 2024

Domestic 2W wholesale segment volumes came in above our expectations with likely improvement in low double digit on a yoy basis in June 2024, whereas domestic ICE retail sales growth moderated to low single digit on a yoy basis. EV 2W retail sales posted an increase of 72% yoy in June 2024 owing to lower base on moderation of FAME II incentives in the base year. Exports demand trends remained weak on a sequential basis with high single-digit decline in volumes. HMCL’s volumes improved by 15% yoy whereas TVS Motor reported a 6% yoy increase in 2W volumes driven by a strong domestic segment. Royal Enfield volumes declined by 5% yoy driven by 27% yoy decline in exports. Bajaj Auto volumes grew by 5% on a yoy basis in June 2024.

CV segment volumes came in below our expectations

Domestic CV segment volumes declined by mid-single digit yoy due to weakness in the MHCV truck segment. Tata Motors domestic CV volumes fell by 7% yoy, led by (1) 3% decline in M&HCV trucks, (2) 21% yoy decline in SCV cargo, partly offset by 18% growth in the bus segment. Ashok Leyland reported 2% yoy decline in volumes, whereas VECV’s volumes increased by 11% yoy in June 2024.

Domestic tractor volumes grew by low single digit on a yoy basis in June 2024

As per our estimates, domestic tractor industry volumes grew by low single digit yoy led by increase in MSPs for kharif crops and inventory buildup. However, rainfall in June 2024 was 11% below long-term average, and monsoon progression needs to be monitored. M&M tractor volumes grew by 6% yoy whereas Escort Kubota’s tractor volumes declined by 2% yoy in June 2024.

Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer