Automobile Sector Update: Replacement demand drives premiumization By Yes Securities
Although domestic 2W volumes have grown ~5% in YTDFY24 at ~7m units, they are lower by ~26%/~13% vis-ŕ-vis YTDFY19/YTDFY20 levels. We reckon FY24E industry will grow 8-10% to 17-17.5m units, largely led by low base and better demand for premium 2Ws, as rural demand is yet to build up. On the other hand, segmental/sub-segmental demand trends are diverse.
Our observations – 1) Scooter share in overall 2W is stable at ~32% in YTDFY24 (v/s 32.7% in FY23 and peak of 33% in FY18). However, if we add EV 2W volumes, the share has already surpassed the prior peak at 34%. 2) Within motorcycles (MC), share of executive/premium >300cc segments has risen consistently over past 5 years at ~39%/~5.4% (highest), led by new product launches and higher replacement/upgrades share. Consequently, share of premium 2Ws is at 7 year high at ~24%. 3) Market share trajectory within motorcycles: TVSL/RE/BJAUT/HMSI gained ~400/180bp/60/90bp market share over (v/s FY20) significantly denting HMCL (-740bp). Among listed peers, TVSL has consistently gained share in overall 2W segment by ~380bp to 17.6% (v/s -460bp/+60bp by HMCL/BJAUT at 31.1%/12.6%) from FY20-YTDFY24. 4) While ICE continues to struggle, EV volumes grew ~45% in FY24YTD led by pre-buy owing to OBD-2 and FAME 2 subsidy cut. Market share of listed players increased steadily to ~35.3% in YTDFY24 (v/s ~17.8%/ 27.7% in FY22/FY23).
Share of ICE Scooters stable; TVSL & Suzuki mega gainers – Share of Scooters was subdued till FY22 (declined to 29.7% v/s 33.1% in FY18) but is back at ~32.7%/~31.8% in FY23/YTDFY24. However, it is ~34% if we add EV 2Ws volumes in YTDFY24. Within ICE scooters, share of 125CC expanded to ~34.2% in YTDFY24 (v/s ~31%/27% in FY23/FY19) led by new launches and better customer value proposition.
Motorcycles: Share of executive segment at ~9 years high - While 2W demand was subdued over last 4 years, share of executive 125CC has been on the rise. Subsequently, its contribution increased to ~15.4% in YTDFY24 (v/s ~8.8% in FY19) led by overall increase in value proposition (added safety features, braking, electronics, etc.) leading to downtrading from 150cc segment. The share of executive 110cc too increased to 23.5% in YTDFY24 (v/s 21.8% in FY23) led by Shine 110.
HMSI’s share in >300CC stable, RE holds turf - RE has held on to its overall market share of 93% in YTDFY24 in >300cc segment (v/s 94.2% in FY23). This was led by new launches by HMSI/BJAUT who gained ~100bp/~30bp share in YTDFY24 at 5%/1.6%, respectively. However, increased inquiries at RE post recent launches by BJAUT/HMCL have led to ~10-15% jump in bookings.
Overall domestic 2Ws: TOverall domestic 2Ws: TVS makes steady gains across segments – HMCLs market share in motorcycle segment dropped to decade low at ~44.4% in YTDFY24 v/s ~51.8% in FY20. BJAUT’s share increased by a meagre ~60bp at 12.6% in YTDFY24 (v/s FY20), despite several new product launches. TVS gained ~400bp/660bp/380bp within MC/Scooters/2Ws segments at 10.8%/24.9%/17.6% (highest) for YTDFY24
E2Ws: Listed peers hold >1/3rd of the pie, TVSL leads - EV 2W penetration among new scooter sales in YTDFY24 was at record high of 16% (v/s ~12% in FY22) whereas it was at 4.3%/5.8% among overall 2W sales in FY23/YTDFY24. OEM wise listed players (TVSL+BJAUT+GRV+HMCL) have cornered 35.3% of EV 2W market led by TVSL at 18.8% in YTDFY24 (vs 11.4% in FY23, Aug’23 exit share of 24.6%), BJAUT at 8.3% in YTDFY24 (vs 4.4% in FY23, Aug’23 exit share of 10.4%), GRV at 7.2% (vs 11.8% in FY23, Aug’23 exit share of 7.2%) and HMCL at 1% in YTDFY24 (vs Aug’23 exit share of 1.5%).
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