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Gold

Gold settled marginally higher by 0.11% at Rs150,881 as lower prices attracted modest buying ahead of the festive season, although gains remained capped by rising US Treasury yields and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points last week, while markets are pricing a 71% probability of another hike in October and 95% in December. Geopolitical developments also remained relevant, with US-Iran negotiations focusing on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing economic restrictions. Physical demand showed mixed trends, with Indian demand improving as domestic discounts narrowed to $43/oz from $60/oz previously, while Singapore and Hong Kong traded at premiums. Swiss gold exports surged 65% month-on-month in August, led by shipments to the UK, which rose to 102.1 tonnes, the highest in seven years. Supplies to China increased 20% to 26.1 tonnes, while deliveries to India declined 58% to 3.5 tonnes. China's net gold imports through Hong Kong rose to 58.491 tonnes from 56.193 tonnes in July. London vault holdings increased 0.74% month-on-month to 9,534 tonnes, valued at approximately $1.2 trillion. Goldman Sachs retained its end-2027 forecast of $5,400/oz, citing continued central-bank diversification, although it warned that aggressive Fed tightening could temporarily push gold toward $4,070 before recovering to around $4,200 by end-2026. Standard Chartered also highlighted firm official-sector demand and structural support for gold. Technically, the market remains under short covering, with open interest declining 16.14% to 4,870 contracts while prices gained Rs171, indicating some reduction in bearish positions. Gold is currently supported near Rs150,190, and a break below this level could expose Rs149,505. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs151,780, above which prices could advance toward Rs152,685.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 149505-152685.

* Gold gained as demand picked up modestly as lower prices drew in buyers ahead of the festive season.

* US Treasury yields hovered at a near-two-decade high.

* Fed officials see further rate hikes to curb high inflation

Silver

Silver settled higher by 0.52% at Rs234,696 as the easing of the government bond sell-off and retreat in oil prices supported sentiment following reports that Iran submitted a proposal to the United States aimed at ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. However, upside remained constrained by expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening, with the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points last week to 3.75%-4.00%, while 16 of 18 policymakers projected at least one additional hike this year. Strong US PMI data and hawkish comments from Fed officials further strengthened expectations, with markets pricing around a 71% probability of an October hike. London vault holdings stood at 28,213 tonnes at end-July, up 0.5% month-on-month and valued at $52.7 billion. The global silver market is expected to remain structurally undersupplied for a sixth consecutive year, with 762 million ounces drawn from stocks since 2021, maintaining concerns over potential liquidity pressures. The 2026 deficit is forecast to widen to 46.3 million ounces from 40.3 million ounces in 2025 despite a 2% decline in total demand. Industrial fabrication is projected to fall 3% to a four-year low amid weaker economic growth risks, while coin and bar demand is expected to rise 18%, supported by stronger US buying. Total supply is forecast to decline 2% as producer hedging normalises. Silver has declined 35% from its January record of $121.6/oz following the 147% surge during 2025, while improved physical availability and reduced Indian demand have eased previous liquidity pressures. Technically, the market remains under short covering, with open interest declining 4.42% to 14,756 contracts while prices gained Rs1,214, indicating some reduction in bearish positions. Silver is currently finding support near Rs232,330, and a break below this level could trigger a decline toward Rs229,965. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs237,130, while a sustained move above this level could open the way toward Rs239,565.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 229965-239565.

* Silver gained as a sell-off in government debt eased and oil prices retreated from recent highs.

* Hawkish Fed expectations remain a key headwind, with markets pricing a stronger chance of an October rate hike.

* The CME FedWatch Tool now shows around a 71% probability of a hike at the October meeting.
 

Crude oil

Crude oil settled sharply lower by 3.48% at Rs8,848 as markets weighed the possibility of a US-Iran truce against renewed concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East. US and Iranian negotiators are exploring a phased path to end the war, potentially involving reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing US economic restrictions on Iran, while increasing Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia remain a supply risk. The Brent-WTI spread widened to $12.59 a barrel, its highest since May, partly due to concerns over a possible US diesel export ban. Bank of America raised its second-half 2026 Brent forecast to $95 from $83, citing prolonged geopolitical tensions, while warning that persistent disruptions into spring 2027 could push prices above $150. Libya’s Sharara-Zawiya pipeline closure is causing estimated losses of 130,000 barrels per day. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks fell to 284.6 million barrels, the lowest since October 1982. Meanwhile, commercial crude inventories increased by 3 million barrels to 426.4 million barrels in the week ended September 18, against expectations for a 641,000-barrel draw. Cushing inventories rose 2.3 million barrels to 23.7 million barrels, while refinery utilization declined 2.8 percentage points to 94%. Gasoline stocks declined 1.7 million barrels to 206 million barrels and distillate inventories fell 0.4 million barrels to 107.4 million barrels. OPEC reduced its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, while the IEA warned that shrinking inventories and strained refining capacity could tighten the market further if Middle East disruptions persist. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 6.03% to 13,029 contracts while prices fell Rs319, indicating liquidation of existing long positions. Crude oil is currently finding support near Rs8,736, and a break below this level could extend weakness toward Rs8,625. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs9,004, while a sustained move above this level could lead to a recovery toward Rs9,161.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8625-9161.

* Crude oil prices fell as markets weighed the possibility of a truce between the US and Iran.

* Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said it was up to the US to choose when the Iran war will end.

* BOFA raised its Brent crude oil price forecast for the second half of 2026 to $95 a barrel from $83

Natural gas

Natural gas settled sharply lower by 4.52% at Rs310.6 as profit booking emerged after prices rallied on supply disruptions in West Virginia, with TC Energy’s Columbia Gas Transmission pipeline in Appalachia declaring force majeure following an unexpected mechanical issue. The disruption triggered the largest single-day gain in US natural gas prices since January, but the subsequent recovery in supply expectations encouraged selling. LSEG data showed average US Lower 48 gas production at 112.5 billion cubic feet per day in September, above the August monthly record of 112.3 bcfd, although daily output was expected to decline toward an eight-month low of 106.9 bcfd due mainly to production losses in West Virginia and Texas. Strong production and mild spring weather had kept inventories above the five-year average, reaching 7.7% above normal in April, while strong summer power demand reduced the surplus as gas-fired generation met cooling requirements. The EIA reported a 53 bcf storage injection for the week ended September 18, matching market expectations but remaining below the 77 bcf build recorded during the same week last year and the five-year average of 76 bcf. The EIA expects US dry gas production to rise from 107.6 bcfd in 2025 to 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027. Domestic consumption is forecast at 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027, while LNG exports are projected to increase to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining sharply by 22.84% to 26,086 contracts while prices fell Rs14.7, indicating substantial unwinding of long positions. Natural gas is currently finding support near Rs303.9, and a break below this level could extend weakness toward Rs297.2. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs318.2, while a sustained move above this level could trigger a recovery toward Rs325.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 297.2-325.8.

* Natural gas fell on profit booking after prices rallied amid supply disruptions in West Virginia.

* TC Energy’s Columbia Gas Transmission pipeline in Appalachia declared force majeure due to an unexpected mechanical issue.

* EIA data showed inventories rose by 53 Bcf for the week ended September 18.

Copper

Copper settled marginally lower by 0.27% at Rs1,419.25 as a stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields pressured prices amid expectations that the Federal Reserve may continue raising interest rates to contain inflation. Supply-side developments remained mixed, with operations at BHP’s Escondida mine in Chile gradually resuming after disruptions, while Chilean copper production declined 9.4% in July due to severe weather and maintenance at major operations. Codelco output fell 5% year-on-year to 112,800 tonnes, while Escondida production dropped 22.1% to 89,400 tonnes. Collahuasi output increased 12.3% to 38,400 tonnes. Chile’s copper production is expected to decline around 2.5% in 2026 before recovering next year. In contrast, Peru’s copper output increased 3.7% year-on-year in July to 236,515 tonnes, taking January-July production to 1.6 million tonnes, up 2.2%. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories declined 15.9% from the previous week to 47,147 tonnes, while the LME cash-to-three-month spread widened sharply into a $124.75 per tonne backwardation, highlighting tighter nearby availability. The global refined copper market recorded a 51,000-tonne deficit in July, narrowing from 74,000 tonnes in June, while the first seven months showed a 32,000-tonne surplus compared with 157,000 tonnes a year earlier. China’s unwrought copper and product imports declined to 382,000 tonnes in August from 425,000 tonnes in July, while January-August imports fell 6.7% year-on-year to 3.30 million tonnes. Copper concentrate imports also declined to 19.49 million tonnes from 20.06 million tonnes. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 17.93% to 8,806 contracts while prices declined Rs3.8, indicating increased participation on the downside. Copper is currently finding support near Rs1,415.4, and a break below this level could extend weakness toward Rs1,411.6. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs1,423.6, while a sustained move above this level could lead to a recovery toward Rs1,428.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1411.6-1428.

* Copper dropped as Operations at BHP's Escondida mine in Chile are being resumed progressively as assessments continue.

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 15.9% from last Friday to 47,147 tons.

* LME cash-to-three-month copper spread was at a backwardation of $124.75 a ton, spiking from $68.93 a ton a day earlier.

Zinc

Zinc settled lower by 1.03% at Rs422.35 as a stronger US dollar and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes to contain inflation pressured prices, while supply concerns limited the downside. Nyrstar announced a strategic review of its Dutch zinc smelting operations, raising concerns over future refined zinc availability. China’s zinc production contracted for the first time in nearly a year in August, declining 1.8% year-on-year to 639,000 tonnes, marking its weakest annual performance since May 2025. Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventories also fell 1.9% from the previous week, providing some support to the market. However, elevated zinc prices weakened Chinese demand and discouraged buying, while expectations of increased Chinese exports to the LME added pressure. Glencore reported own-sourced zinc production of 365,600 tonnes in the first half of 2026, down 21% year-on-year, while Boliden’s zinc concentrate production declined 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes. Reports of an industrial accident at Korea Zinc’s Onsan smelter further highlighted supply risks. China’s central bank reiterated its commitment to an appropriately loose monetary policy, stronger counter-cyclical adjustments and maintaining yuan stability, with sufficient liquidity to support economic activity. The global refined zinc market shifted into a 31,400-tonne deficit in June from a 22,400-tonne surplus in May, although the first six months still recorded a 120,000-tonne surplus compared with 74,000 tonnes during the same period in 2025. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 15.12% to 2,498 contracts while prices declined Rs4.4, indicating increased participation on the downside. Zinc is currently finding support near Rs418.5, and a break below this level could extend weakness toward Rs414.5. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs429.1, while a sustained move above this level could trigger a recovery toward Rs435.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 414.5-435.7.

* Zinc dropped amid a stronger US dollar on expectations that Fed will continue raising interest rates to combat inflation.

* However downside seen limited amid supply fears after smelter Nyrstar said it was launching a strategic review of its Dutch zinc smelting operations.

* China’s zinc output contracted for the first time in nearly a year in August 2026, ending a prolonged period of growth.
 

Aluminium

Aluminium settled higher by 0.43% at Rs348.65, supported by tight physical supply conditions as the US-Iran conflict disrupted aluminium availability from the Gulf region, with GCC production falling 44% year-on-year in July. LME inventories remained near a 36-year low, while Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks declined 4.7% from the previous week, highlighting constrained availability. However, gains were capped by expectations of improving supply as several smelters restart curtailed capacity and expansion projects progress. China’s aluminium exports increased 17.2% year-on-year during the first eight months, potentially easing shortages from the Gulf. Aluminium Bahrain is operating at an annualised production rate of 1.3 million tonnes, around 19% below pre-war capacity, while Alba suspended production lines 1, 2 and 3 after the Strait of Hormuz disruption restricted exports. China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product exports declined to 626,000 tonnes in August from 643,000 tonnes in July, although January-August exports rose 16.7% year-on-year to 4.67 million tonnes. Japanese port inventories increased 22.7% month-on-month to 246,600 tonnes at end-August. Alcoa reduced its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000-300,000 tonnes to 9.5-9.6 million tonnes following operational disruptions in Western Australia. Global primary aluminium output declined 1.7% year-on-year to 6.172 million tonnes in August. In contrast, China’s aluminium production reached a record 3.98 million tonnes in August, up 4.7% year-on-year, while January-August output rose 3.9% to 31.12 million tonnes. Strong margins have encouraged Chinese smelters to maximise production despite the national capacity ceiling. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 17.25% to 3,603 contracts while prices gained Rs1.5, indicating stronger participation alongside the price rise. Aluminium is currently finding support near Rs347.4, and a break below this level could lead to Rs346.2. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs349.4, while a sustained move above this level could trigger a move toward Rs350.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 346.2-350.2.

* Aluminium gains amid tight supply conditions.

* Global aluminium output falls 1.7% year on year in August – IAI

* The US-Iran war has disrupted aluminum supply from the region, with GCC production falling 44% year-on-year in July.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled higher by 0.81% at Rs20,750, supported by a hand-to-mouth supply situation, reduced carry-forward stocks and concerns that dry conditions and El Nino could affect the newly sown crop. Lower-than-expected sowing expansion in key growing regions has raised concerns over upcoming production, while continued dryness during early crop development could adversely affect yields and provide further price support. However, the recent revival of monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka has eased immediate crop stress, while improved reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have supported water availability during the vegetative phase. Re-sowing in North Karnataka has also been completed following rainfall, with crop conditions improving. These developments have reduced crop failure concerns and created a softer undertone as traders assess whether improved weather will translate into higher production. Carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, compared with more than 20 lakh bags last season, indicating a tighter availability buffer. EU regulations on Maximum Residue Limits have resulted in rejection of non-IPM compliant lots, while rising demand for IPM-certified turmeric is supporting compliant stocks. Farmer selling during the peak harvest window remains an additional pressure factor. India’s turmeric exports declined 10% year-on-year to 13,489 tonnes in July 2026 from 15,071 tonnes, although cumulative April-July exports increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes from 63,020 tonnes. Exports to Turkey, Sri Lanka and Nigeria recorded strong growth of 431%, 644% and 983%, respectively, while shipments to Switzerland and Zambia also increased sharply. In Nizamabad, spot turmeric ended at Rs20,222.7, down 0.25%. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 0.18% to 36,855 contracts while prices gained Rs166, indicating limited unwinding of bearish positions. Turmeric is finding support near Rs20,484, and a break below this level could expose Rs20,218. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs20,908, while a sustained move above this level could lead to Rs21,066.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 20218-21066.

* Turmeric gained amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation, and fears of lower overall output for the upcoming harvest.

* Continued dry conditions during the early growth and development stages could adversely affect yields, thereby further supporting prices.

* India’s turmeric exports declined 10% YoY to 13,489 tonnes in July-2026 from 15,071 tonnes in July-2025.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20222.7 Rupees dropped by -0.25 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled marginally lower by 0.07% at Rs22,310 as profit booking emerged after the recent gains, with tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds providing underlying support. Although overall physical crop availability remains stable, export-grade high-purity bold seed supplies are shrinking, while arrivals at major markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan have started to decline. However, upside remained capped by aggressive farmer selling ahead of the next season, supported by favourable weather that enabled faster harvesting and drying. Rising NCDEX warehouse stocks have reduced the urgency for spot procurement, while large industrial spice grinders continue to adopt hand-to-mouth buying and avoid aggressive bulk purchases. European and North American buyers have returned selectively for residue-compliant and high-specification lots, although geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to affect logistics and demand from traditional markets. Blight outbreaks in parts of Gujarat have reduced the quality and quantity of harvestable crop, while improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria could weigh on Indian export premiums. Current estimates place India’s cumin production at 90-92 lakh bags, down from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42-45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. China’s production is estimated at 70,000-80,000 tonnes, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce around 9,000-10,000 tonnes, 10,000-11,000 tonnes and 10,000-12,000 tonnes, respectively. India’s jeera exports declined 32% year-on-year to 9,318 tonnes in July 2026, while cumulative April-July exports fell 27% to 53,462 tonnes. Exports to Singapore surged 889%, while China-bound shipments declined 88%. In Unjha, spot jeera ended at Rs22,004.25, down 0.25%. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 2.31% to 6,840 contracts while prices fell Rs15. Jeera is finding support near Rs22,220, and a break below this level could extend weakness toward Rs22,130. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs22,430, while a sustained move above this level could lead to Rs22,550.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 22130-22550.

* Jeera settled flat on profit booking after gained amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* India’s jeera exports declined 32% YoY to 9,318 tonnes in July-2026 from 13,779 tonnes in July-2025.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22004.25 Rupees dropped by -0.25 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views