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Gold

Gold settled 0.73% higher at 154,882, supported by a softer dollar after U.S. inflation data matched expectations and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged in September. U.S. consumer inflation rose 0.1% in July, in line with estimates, after declining 0.4% in June, while weaker employment data further reduced expectations for a near-term rate hike. Markets are now pricing a 48% probability of a September rate hike, down from 60% before the jobs report, although Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee maintained a cautious stance, highlighting greater concern over persistent inflation than labour-market weakness. Physical demand remained mixed across major Asian markets. In India, gold discounts widened to as much as $47 an ounce from $44 last week as retail buyers stayed cautious after prices reached a more than one-month high. Chinese premiums moderated to $3-$5 an ounce from $5-$8, while Hong Kong and Singapore markets remained relatively subdued; Japan showed a slight improvement in demand, with bullion trading around spot. London vault holdings rose 0.77% month-on-month to 9,464 tonnes at the end of June, valued at approximately $1.2 trillion and equivalent to around 757,145 gold bars. India’s unofficial gold inflows increased following higher import tariffs, while net gold imports fell 23% year-on-year to 98.1 tonnes in the June quarter and overall demand declined 6% to 131.4 tonnes. Globally, second-quarter gold demand was steady at 1,268.9 tonnes as central-bank purchases surged to 289 tonnes, offsetting 45 tonnes of ETF outflows. Technically, fresh buying emerged as open interest increased 0.66% to 10,344 contracts while prices gained Rs 1,117. Gold has support at 154,055, followed by 153,220, while resistance is placed at 155,780; a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 156,670. Near-term bias remains positive while dollar movements and physical demand will guide further price direction.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 153220-156670.

* Gold rose supported by a softer dollar after a U.S. inflation reading matched expectations.

* Prices gained buoyed by weaker-than-expected employment data that led traders to scale back U.S. rate-hike bets.

* Demand from central banks in first half was the lowest since 2022

Silver

Silver settled 0.92% higher at 237,835, supported by U.S. inflation data that broadly matched expectations and reduced concerns about an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike. Core consumer prices increased 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year in July, strengthening expectations that the Fed may maintain a cautious monetary policy stance. Investors also monitored developments around the Strait of Hormuz, with Pakistan’s defense minister indicating that the United States and Iran were close to an arrangement for reopening the key waterway, while President Donald Trump claimed the United States had total control over the strait, keeping geopolitical uncertainty elevated. Silver continued to receive fundamental support from industrial applications, particularly solar-panel manufacturing, electricity-grid investment, electronics and electric vehicles. Chinese imports of silver-bearing ores surged 62.5% year-on-year in June to 219,000 tonnes, while Perth Mint silver sales jumped over 65% month-on-month to 486,043 ounces and increased 7.5% year-on-year. COMEX speculative net long positions rose by 2,679 contracts to 11,067 contracts for the week ending August 4, indicating improving bullish expectations despite silver’s relatively lower market liquidity. London silver vault holdings increased 1.7% month-on-month to 28,082 tonnes at end-June, valued at $53.1 billion and equivalent to approximately 936,052 bars. The global silver market is expected to remain in structural deficit for a sixth consecutive year, with the 2026 deficit projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces from 40.3 million in 2025. Total demand is forecast to decline 2%, while industrial fabrication may fall 3%, partly offset by an 18% rise in coin and bar demand. Global supply is also projected to decline 2%, maintaining underlying tightness. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined 1.9% to 10,670 contracts while prices gained Rs 2,176. Silver has immediate support at 235,990, followed by 234,150, while resistance is placed at 240,180. A sustained move above 240,180 could extend the upside toward 242,530, keeping the near-term bias positive while geopolitical developments, industrial demand and global supply tightness remain key drivers.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 234150-242530.

* Silver climbed as US inflation data broadly matched expectations and reduced concerns about an imminent Fed rate hike.

* The annual inflation rate in the US slowed for a second consecutive month to 3.4% in July 2026, from 3.5% in June

* Traders are now pricing in a 48% chance of a hike in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 0.15% lower at 7,928, pressured by downward revisions to global oil demand forecasts for 2026, a sharp build in U.S. crude inventories and continued uncertainty surrounding efforts to end the Iran war. Ongoing attacks on shipping in the Middle East added geopolitical risk, but the impact was offset by concerns over weaker consumption and increasing U.S. oil availability. Iranian sources said there were no discussions with the United States to extend the ceasefire, while separate attacks involving the United States and Iran-aligned Houthis were reported around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, two critical routes for Middle Eastern energy exports. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply to a one-week low of just eight vessels, compared with 125-140 vessels typically transiting the waterway daily before the war, highlighting significant disruption to regional trade flows. U.S. crude inventories surged by 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 million barrels in the week ended August 7, sharply exceeding expectations for a 1.4 million-barrel draw. Stocks at the Cushing delivery hub increased by 1.6 million barrels, while refinery crude runs rose 26,000 barrels per day and refinery utilization declined 0.3 percentage points. Gasoline inventories declined by 1 million barrels to 208.7 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell marginally by 10,000 barrels to 107.1 million barrels. Net U.S. crude imports increased by 1.77 million barrels per day, contributing to the substantial inventory build. OPEC reduced its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day, marking its fourth consecutive downward revision, although it raised its 2027 demand-growth outlook. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest declined 0.79% to 8,807 contracts while prices fell Rs 12. Crude oil has immediate support at 7,841, followed by 7,754, while resistance is placed at 8,032. A sustained move above 8,032 could trigger a recovery toward 8,136, whereas failure to hold 7,841 may extend downside pressure amid weakening demand expectations and elevated inventory levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7754-8136.

* Crude oil dropped after forecasters cut projections for 2026 global oil demand

* OPEC lowered its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2026 to 580,000 barrels per day

* IEA expects global oil supply to fall 4.3 mln bpd in 2026, versus a prior forecast for a 3.7 mln bpd decline.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 1.02% higher at 268.1, supported by rising daily LNG feedgas demand and forecasts for hotter weather and stronger natural gas consumption over the next two weeks. Average U.S. Lower 48 gas production increased to 111.1 billion cubic feet per day in August, compared with the monthly record of 110.7 bcfd in July, highlighting continued strong supply. Despite elevated production and relatively mild weather earlier in the year, natural gas inventories have remained above the five-year average since March. Storage was expected to remain around 6.6% above normal for the week ended August 7, only slightly lower than 6.7% previously. U.S. gas demand, including exports, is projected to decline from 115.0 bcfd this week to 112.2 bcfd next week, indicating some near-term moderation. Average flows to the nine major U.S. LNG export plants eased to 17.1 bcfd in August from 17.2 bcfd in July and 17.4 bcfd in June, although daily LNG feedgas was expected to rise to 17.4 bcfd, recovering from 16.4 bcfd previously. U.S. energy firms added 33 billion cubic feet of gas to storage during the week ended July 31, exceeding market expectations of 31 bcf and significantly above the five-year average injection of 23 bcf. Total inventories reached 3.117 trillion cubic feet, 0.4% below last year but 6.7% above the five-year average. The EIA expects both U.S. natural gas supply and demand to reach record levels in 2026. Dry gas production is forecast at 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is projected at 92.0 bcfd and 94.8 bcfd respectively. LNG exports are expected to rise to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined 5.75% to 42,947 contracts while prices gained Rs 2.7. Natural gas has support at 264.9, followed by 261.6, while resistance is placed at 270.8. A sustained move above 270.8 could extend gains toward 273.4, while strong production and above-normal inventories may limit the upside.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 261.6-273.4.

* Natural gas edged up on a daily rise in LNG export plants and forecasts for hotter weather.

* LNG feedgas flows rise to 17.4 bcfd on Wednesday from 16.4 bcfd Tuesday

* Midwest storm outages could trim gas-fired power burn this week

Copper

Copper settled 0.29% lower at 1,375.2, pressured by profit booking after a recent rally, although concerns over tight LME inventories and supply disruptions continued to provide underlying support. A temporary shutdown of a smelter in Indonesia added to supply concerns, while the LME cash copper premium over the benchmark surged to $196 per tonne, its highest since October, signalling tight nearby supply amid metal outflows toward the United States. However, demand indicators from China remained softer, with the Yangshan copper premium declining to a one-month low of $96 per tonne from $115 on July 22 as elevated prices reduced importer buying interest. Goldman Sachs sharply raised its 2026 refined copper deficit forecast outside the United States to 640,000 tonnes from 60,000 tonnes, highlighting increasing structural supply risks. Chilean production showed mixed trends in June, with Escondida output rising 45.8% year-on-year to 111,400 tonnes and Collahuasi production increasing 1.7% to 34,900 tonnes, while Codelco output declined 4.8% to 114,400 tonnes. COMEX speculative net long positions increased by 11,307 contracts to 77,796 contracts in the week ending August 4, indicating stronger bullish positioning. Meanwhile, China's manufacturing activity slowed to a four-month low in July, while the Politburo continued to rely on existing policy measures rather than broad-based stimulus. The global refined copper market recorded an 18,000-tonne surplus in May after a 145,000-tonne deficit in April, while the January-May surplus reached 221,000 tonnes. China's July unwrought copper imports declined 11.5% year-on-year to 425,000 tonnes, while refined copper output rose 2.5% to a record 1.334 million tonnes, contrasting with a 2.3% decline in copper product output to 2.16 million tonnes and indicating weaker downstream activity. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest declined 3.63% to 9,973 contracts while prices fell Rs 3.95. Copper has support at 1,370.8, followed by 1,366.4, while resistance is placed at 1,383.1; a sustained move above 1,383.1 could extend gains toward 1,391.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1366.4-1391.

* Copper dropped on profit booking after temporary shutdown of a smelter in Indonesia added to worries about tight inventories

* The premium of the LME cash copper contract over the benchmark hit $196 a ton, its highest since October, signalling tightness for nearby supply.

* Yangshan copper premium fell to its one-month low of $96 a ton from a peak of $115 a ton on July 22, indicating weaker demand from Chinese importers.

Zinc

Zinc settled 0.56% higher at 395.55, supported by tight mine supply, declining overseas inventories and strengthening LME calendar spreads, which continued to signal near-term market tightness. LME zinc inventories fell to 95,000 tonnes, while canceled warrants remained at a quarterly high and on-warrant stocks slipped below key levels, increasing the risk of a potential supply squeeze. The LME cash zinc contract remained around $60 per tonne above the three-month forward contract, easing from more than $73 a week earlier but staying in steep backwardation. Minmetals Resources reported zinc production of 105,800 tonnes and retained its full-year production guidance at 215,000-235,000 tonnes. Supply disruptions also remain a concern, with a Southwest China mine expected to reduce zinc concentrate production by approximately 1,000 tonnes of contained zinc in August, while a Central China smelter plans around half a month of maintenance, potentially reducing output by 1,000-1,500 tonnes. Glencore reported first-half own-sourced zinc production of 365,600 tonnes, down 21% year-on-year, while maintaining its 2026 guidance at 700,000-740,000 tonnes. Boliden zinc concentrate production declined 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes, while MMG produced 55,500 tonnes in the second quarter. In contrast, Mitsui Mining and Smelting plans refined zinc production of 108,200 tonnes in the first half of fiscal 2026/27, up 3.2% year-on-year. The global refined zinc surplus narrowed sharply to 8,700 tonnes in May from 43,400 tonnes in April, although the January-May surplus stood at 163,000 tonnes compared with 44,000 tonnes a year earlier. China's refined zinc output rose 10% year-on-year to 641,000 tonnes in May, highlighting robust smelter activity. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased 3.47% to 2,806 contracts while prices gained Rs 2.2. Zinc has support at 393.3, followed by 390.9, while resistance is placed at 398.4. A sustained move above 398.4 could extend gains toward 401.1, while tight inventories and mine supply concerns may continue to support the near-term outlook.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 390.9-401.1.

* Zinc gained as tight mine supply and low overseas inventories offer solid support for prices.

* Minmetals Resources zinc output hit 105,800 tonnes, and the company maintained its full year output guidance of 215,000 235,000 tonnes.

* LME inventories fell and share of canceled warrants stayed at quarterly high, on warrant stocks slipped, stoking squeeze risks.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 1.01% lower at 352.9, pressured by easing concerns over future Gulf supply after Emirates Global Aluminium reaffirmed plans to restore full-scale production at its war-damaged Al Taweelah smelter during the first quarter of 2027. The smelter, which was shut following an Iranian strike in March, is currently operating at only 18% capacity. EGA managed to limit the impact on sales by arranging export routes outside the Strait of Hormuz, with first-half sales declining 32% to 939,000 tonnes. However, downside remained limited as Norsk Hydro announced reduced feedstock production at its Brazilian plant, while global visible inventories continued to decline sharply. LME aluminium stocks fell to 254,900 tonnes from 262,650 tonnes on August 3 and have dropped substantially from 416,775 tonnes at the end of March, leaving a significantly thinner inventory buffer. European physical premiums eased to $487 per tonne from a May peak of $621, although they remain 36% higher since the war began. Aluminium output outside China declined 6.7% year-on-year in July, mainly due to lower operating rates at Middle Eastern smelters. Global primary aluminium production fell 1.5% year-on-year to 5.98 million tonnes in June, with Gulf production plunging one-third to 332,000 tonnes from 507,000 tonnes a year earlier. Alcoa also reduced its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000-300,000 tonnes to 9.5-9.6 million tonnes following operational disruptions in Western Australia. Japanese aluminium inventories declined 7.8% month-on-month to 220,300 tonnes at the end of June. Meanwhile, China's July exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis rose 18.6% year-on-year to 643,000 tonnes, although they declined 9.6% month-on-month, while January-July exports increased 16.7% to 4.04 million tonnes. Rising exports of semi-manufactured products are helping offset Gulf supply losses. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest declined 11.97% to 4,119 contracts while prices fell Rs 3.6. Aluminium has support at 345.9, followed by 338.8, while resistance is placed at 359.2. A sustained move above 359.2 could extend gains toward 365.4, while low visible inventories may restrict deeper downside.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 338.8-365.4.

* Aluminium fell after EGA reaffirmed it would resume full-scale production at its war-damaged smelter in the first quarter of 2027.

* However downside seen limited as Norsk Hydro's announcement of reduced feedstock production at its Brazilian plant.

* The physical premium European buyers pay above the LME price for primary aluminium has eased to $487 a ton from a May peak of $621.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 1.06% lower at 20,864, pressured by improved monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, which eased concerns over crop damage and supported expectations of better production. Filling of key reservoirs in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh also ensured reliable water availability during the vegetative phase, reducing crop failure speculation. Good rainfall across major growing regions during the past five to six days is expected to accelerate sowing, while re-sowing in North Karnataka has been completed following improved rainfall. Turmeric acreage is expected to rise 16.05% year-on-year from 2025 and remain above the five-year average of 1.88 lakh hectares, although the final sowing pace will depend on rainfall distribution and potential El Nino effects. Despite improved weather, structurally tight supplies remain supportive as carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, down from more than 20 lakh bags last season. Farmer selling during the peak harvest period has increased near-term availability, while stockists remain cautious. European Union Maximum Residue Limit regulations have led to rejection of non-IPM compliant lots, discounting commercial-grade turmeric, whereas stronger demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric is supporting compliant stocks. Export demand remains broadly stable, with India's May turmeric exports declining 1% year-on-year to 18,960 tonnes from 19,205 tonnes, while April-May exports were nearly unchanged at 33,999 tonnes. Demand from Oman, China, Yemen and Italy remained strong, with April-May exports to China surging 4,631% to 2,021 tonnes, while shipments to Oman rose 310% to 1,019 tonnes and Yemen increased 48% to 393 tonnes. In Nizamabad, spot turmeric ended at Rs 20,355.4, down 0.21%. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest declined 0.39% to 17,705 contracts while prices fell Rs 224. Turmeric has support at 20,624, followed by 20,382, while resistance is placed at 21,154. A sustained move above 21,154 could extend gains toward 21,442, while failure to hold 20,624 may trigger further correction.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 20382-21442.

* Turmeric dropped as revival of monsoon activity in mid-July eased dry-weather fears.

* Re-sowing completed in North Karnataka following rainfall, crop conditions improve.

* Filling up of key reservoirs in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh ensured reliable water supply for the vegetative phase, dampening crop failure speculation.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20355.4 Rupees dropped by -0.21 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled 0.21% lower at 20,895, pressured by aggressive farmer selling as growers liquidated stocks to generate cash flow for Kharif sowing. Favorable weather across North-West India enabled faster harvesting and drying, accelerating arrivals, while rising NCDEX warehouse stocks reduced the urgency for spot procurement. However, downside remained limited as supplies of premium-quality bold seeds tightened rapidly, with daily arrivals at Unjha in Gujarat and Rajasthan beginning to taper significantly. Blight outbreaks in key Gujarat pockets also reduced the quality and quantity of the harvestable crop. Demand remained cautious as large industrial spice grinders delayed bulk purchases, while domestic processors and stockists preferred hand-to-mouth buying. Geopolitical instability in the Middle East continued to affect logistics and demand from traditional buyers, while improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria weighed on Indian export premiums. European and North American buyers, however, returned selectively for residue-compliant and high-specification lots. India's cumin production is estimated at 90-92 lakh bags this season, sharply below 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42-45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. Outside India, China production is estimated at 70,000-80,000 tonnes, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan may produce around 9,000-10,000 tonnes, 10,000-11,000 tonnes and 10,000-12,000 tonnes respectively. India's jeera exports declined 26% year-on-year to 17,177 tonnes in May, while April-May exports fell 22% to 33,431 tonnes. However, shipments to Singapore, Yemen, Mexico and Kenya increased sharply, indicating improving demand from emerging markets. In Unjha, spot prices ended at Rs 20,582.45, down 0.15%. Technically, the market is under fresh selling as open interest increased 4.87% to 5,946 contracts while prices declined Rs 45. Jeera has support at 20,820, followed by 20,750, while resistance is placed at 21,000. A sustained move above 21,000 could extend gains toward 21,110, whereas failure to hold 20,820 may increase selling pressure.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20750-21110.

* Jeera dropped as farmers are aggressively liquidating Jeera stocks to generate immediate cash flow for the Kharif sowing season.

* Favorable weather in North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting and drying faster than expected.

* NCDEX warehouse stocks have shown a steady build-up, reducing the urgency for spot procurement by traders.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20582.45 Rupees dropped by -0.15 percent.

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