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Gold

Gold prices edged marginally lower, settling down by 0.19% at 137,742, as investors positioned ahead of futures selling linked to the annual commodity index rebalancing, while a firmer U.S. dollar added pressure by making the metal more expensive for overseas buyers. The dollar hovered near a one-month high as markets assessed mixed U.S. economic data ahead of the nonfarm payrolls report, with job openings falling to a 14-month low, signalling some cooling in the labour market. Despite the near-term softness, the broader outlook for gold remains constructive. Major banks continue to upgrade long-term price targets, with HSBC and UBS projecting gold prices could approach $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, citing geopolitical risks, rising fiscal stress, and lower real yields. UBS also highlighted the potential for extreme volatility if political or financial risks intensify. Physical demand showed signs of revival, with gold trading at premiums in key hubs such as India and China for the first time in nearly two months, supported by a correction from record highs. Central bank demand remains a strong pillar, as China extended its gold-buying streak to 14 months, reinforcing bullion’s role as a hedge against currency risk. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 0.93% alongside a price decline of ?267. Gold has immediate support at 136,795, and a break below could test 135,845. On the upside, resistance is seen at 138,345, with a move above opening the path toward 138,945.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 135845-138945.

* Gold prices fell as investors braced for futures selling tied to a commodity index reshuffle, with a stronger U.S. dollar.

* U.S. dollar hovered near a one-month high as investors assessed mixed economic data ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report.

* U.S. job openings dropped to a 14-month low in November while hiring resumed its sluggish tone, pointing to ebbing labor demand.

Silver

Silver prices declined sharply, settling lower by 2.91% at 243,324, as traders positioned ahead of the annual commodity index rebalancing, which is expected to trigger substantial futures selling. Silver remains particularly exposed, with estimates indicating that nearly $6.8 billion worth of silver futures—around 12% of COMEX open interest—could be liquidated as part of the rebalancing exercise. Additional pressure came from a stronger U.S. dollar, while mixed U.S. economic data offered little clarity on the Federal Reserve’s policy path, even as markets continue to price in rate cuts later in the year. Despite the correction, silver continues to trade close to record highs, underpinned by tight physical availability and sustained investment interest. Geopolitical uncertainties, including developments in Venezuela and rising tensions in East Asia, are helping maintain underlying safe-haven demand. Supply-side constraints remain evident, with Chinese silver inventories falling to their lowest levels in nearly a decade following heavy exports, while liquidity conditions outside China remain tight despite rising London vault holdings. HSBC has sharply raised its medium-term silver price outlook, citing support from gold’s momentum and mild structural supply-demand deficits, although it cautions that prices could remain highly volatile. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, as open interest rose by 1.08% while prices dropped by ?7,281. Silver has support at 235,610, with a break below opening downside toward 227,905. Resistance is seen at 251,455, and a move above could test 259,595.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 227905-259595.

* Silver declined as traders positioned for annual commodity index rebalancing, which is expected to trigger heavy futures selling.

* Prices also retreated as the dollar strengthened, with mixed US economic data offering limited clarity on Fed’s policy outlook.

* Citigroup estimating that around $6.8 billion worth of silver futures could be sold.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices strengthened, settling higher by 2.42% at 5,163, as markets assessed developments related to Venezuela and ongoing discussions around proposed U.S. sanctions on countries doing business with Russia. Softer U.S. labor data also supported sentiment, reinforcing expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve stance and improving demand prospects. However, gains were capped by rising inventories at Cushing and sharp builds in gasoline and distillate stocks, highlighting continued oversupply concerns in refined products. On the supply side, OPEC crude production remained largely steady in December at just over 29 million barrels per day. A sharp decline in Venezuelan output to a two-year low of around 830,000 bpd—following U.S. actions against tankers—was offset by higher production from Iraq and some other members. U.S. inventory data showed a notable draw of 1.93 million barrels in crude stocks for the week ended December 26, the largest decline since mid-November, although total commercial stocks remain comfortably above historical averages at 423 million barrels. In contrast, gasoline and distillate inventories rose sharply, underscoring weak downstream demand. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling sharply by 20.27% as prices rose ?122. Crude oil has support at 5,087, with further downside toward 5,012. Resistance is seen at 5,205, and a move above could test 5,248.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5012-5248.

* Crude oil rose as markets weighed Venezuela news and progress on proposed US sanctions.

* OPEC’s crude production held steady in December as a slump in Venezuela’s output was offset by increases in Iraq and some other members.

* Venezuelan output declined by about 14% to 830,000 barrels a day as the US blocked and seized.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices declined sharply, settling lower by 4.57% at 306.7, as markets reacted to a modest rise in daily output and forecasts calling for mostly mild weather over the next two weeks, which is expected to keep heating demand below seasonal norms. The bearish sentiment persisted despite expectations of a larger-than-usual storage withdrawal and near-record LNG exports, as traders focused on near-term weather-driven demand weakness. Prices also softened even as forecasts indicate a brief return of colder conditions and higher consumption toward late January. Fundamentally, supply-demand data remains mixed. Average gas output in the Lower 48 states has eased to 109.1 bcfd so far in January from December’s record highs, while total gas demand, including exports, is projected to rise from 132.0 bcfd this week to 133.6 bcfd next week. Storage data showed a significant draw of 119 bcf for the week ended January 2, well above market expectations and the five-year average, pulling inventories down to 3.261 tcf. Although stocks are now below last year’s levels, they remain slightly above the five-year average, tempering bullish reactions. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 6.88% alongside a price decline of ?14.7. Natural gas has support at 298.4, and a break below could test 290. On the upside, resistance is placed at 320.9, with a move above potentially opening the path toward 335.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 290-335.

* Natural gas slid on a small rise in daily output and forecasts for the weather to remain mostly mild over the next two weeks.

* Global prices slid to multi-month lows on hopes Ukraine peace talks may ease Russia sanctions.

* US energy firms withdrew a larger-than-usual 119 bcf of natural gas from storage in the week ended January 2, 2025

Copper

Copper prices declined by 2.87% to settle at 1270.2, as investors engaged in profit booking after the recent rally to record highs driven by a tightening global market and concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper. The correction reflects near-term consolidation, even as underlying supply risks remain elevated. Rising Comex copper inventories contrasted with falling LME stocks, highlighting the ongoing shift of refined metal toward the United States amid tariff-driven arbitrage, which has tightened availability in other regions. On the fundamentals front, supply disruptions and policy expectations continue to shape sentiment. Capstone Copper announced a sharp reduction in output at its Mantoverde mine in Chile due to strike action, while Chile’s national copper output fell over 7% year-on-year in November. Production has also been affected by halted operations at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine. Despite these constraints, global refined copper posted a surplus of around 122,000 tons in the first ten months of 2025, with mine and refined output rising alongside strong growth in apparent demand. In China, copper imports declined for a second month, reflecting price sensitivity, although expectations of a 10% smelter output cut in 2026 are fuelling longer-term supply-tightening hopes. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling 3.78% alongside a price drop of ?37.55. Copper has support at 1229.7, with a break potentially testing 1189.2, while resistance is seen at 1312.3 and then 1354.4 on a sustained move higher.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1189.2-1354.4.

* Copper prices fell as investors booked profits, extending a pullback from recent record highs.

* Copper output in Chile, fell 7.18% year-on-year in November to 451,815 metric tons.

* Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecast for the first half of 2026 to $12,750 a metric ton from $11,525 a ton.

Zinc

Zinc prices eased by 0.74% to settle at 307.35, pressured by a stronger dollar index, which climbed to its highest level since early December as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook amid mixed U.S. economic data. U.S. labor indicators remained resilient, with a modest rise in initial jobless claims and a sharp drop in announced job cuts, reducing fears of a near-term slowdown and weighing on base metals sentiment. However, downside in zinc prices was limited by tightening inventories and persistent supply-side constraints. On the fundamentals front, zinc stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 4.3% from late December, underscoring a tightening physical market. Several Chinese mines are scheduled for routine maintenance shutdowns, including operations in central and southwest China, which are expected to reduce concentrate availability, with one mine alone likely to cut output by around 700 tons of metal content. China’s factory activity unexpectedly expanded in December, providing some support, while speculative buying reflected concerns over tighter near-term supply. That said, upside remained capped by lingering demand worries, particularly as China’s property investment and sales continued to deteriorate. At the same time, China’s refined zinc output rose sharply year-on-year in November, highlighting adequate smelting supply.  Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 16.54% alongside a price decline of ?2.3. Zinc has support at 304.4, below which prices may test 301.4, while resistance is seen at 310 and then 312.6 on a sustained move higher.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 301.4-312.6.

* Zinc dropped as dollar index rose, its highest level since December 9, as investors weighed mixed US economic data.

* Several Chinese miners are scheduled for routine maintenance shutdowns, which are expected to reduce production and tighten concentrate availability.

* China’s zinc output in November rose 13.3 percent year-on-year to 654,000 metric tons.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged lower by 0.42% to settle at 308.85, tracking weakness in silver and copper as investors engaged in profit booking ahead of the annual rebalancing of major commodity indexes. Despite the decline, losses were limited as sentiment remained supported by expectations of economic stabilization in China. Beijing reiterated its commitment to accommodative monetary policy, with the central bank signaling reserve requirement and interest rate cuts in 2026 to ensure ample liquidity, while intensifying counter-cyclical measures to boost domestic demand and stabilize growth. On the supply side, China again emphasized preventing overcapacity in aluminium production to curb deflationary pressures. With output set to breach the 45-million-ton cap this year, smelters are expected to restrain growth in 2026, prompting more domestic sales and contributing to a 9.2% annual drop in exports in November. Overseas expansion plans by Chinese smelters, particularly in Indonesia, continue to face challenges from high energy costs and regulatory risks. Inventory data were mixed, with SHFE stocks rising marginally, while aluminium stocks at major Japanese ports declined sharply, signaling tighter regional availability. Technically, aluminium is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 9.73% alongside a price decline of ?1.3. Support is seen at 304, with a break potentially testing 299, while resistance stands at 312.3 and then 315.6 on a sustained move higher.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 299-315.6.

* Aluminium fell tracking silver and copper weakness on profit booking ahead of index rebalancing.

* However, downside seen limited as investor optimism reflects early signs of economic stabilization after Beijing’s support for key sectors.

* China's central bank pledges to cut RRR, interest rate in 2026

Turmeric

Turmeric prices eased marginally, settling lower by 0.97% at 17,606, as sentiment was weighed by expectations of higher acreage supported by favourable rains during the current sowing season. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up about 4% year-on-year, with fresh production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. However, supply growth is expected to remain moderate, as unseasonal heavy rainfall during August–September led to waterlogging and disease issues, impacting yields across parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Around 15–20% yield losses have been reported in affected pockets, while quality concerns such as rhizome rot persist in low-lying areas. Downside in prices remains limited due to below-normal arrivals and strong domestic and export demand. Lower carry-forward stocks, along with reduced holdings by farmers and stockists, are providing a firm base ahead of new crop arrivals. Export demand remains supportive, particularly from Europe and the US, with April–October 2025 exports rising 2.05% year-on-year, despite a month-on-month decline in October. Imports fell sharply during the same period, reinforcing domestic tightness. Spot prices in Nizamabad also showed resilience, gaining 0.54%. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 0.96% as prices fell by ?172. Turmeric has support at 16,912, and a break below could test 16,216. Resistance is seen at 18,116, with a move above opening the path toward 18,624.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16216-18624.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth.

* However downside seen limited as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16750.4 Rupees gained by 0.54 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined by 1.03% to settle at 21,540, weighed down by comfortable supplies and subdued export demand amid adequate existing stocks. Export interest remains tepid, with current overseas demand largely being met from available inventories, and traders citing the end of the retail season and limited participation from foreign buyers as key factors pressuring prices. Jeera exports during April–October 2025 fell 13.21% year-on-year, underscoring weak international offtake. Spot prices in Unjha also eased by 0.39%, reflecting cautious buying sentiment. However, downside remains limited due to supply-side concerns linked to delayed sowing and weather-related disruptions. In Gujarat, jeera sowing as of December 29 stood at 3.99 lakh hectares, down 14.2% from last year, marking one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years due to uneven rainfall and unprepared fields. Arrivals at Unjha remain low, with good-quality cumin commanding premium prices. Although farmers are estimated to hold around 20 lakh bags, only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded, leaving substantial carry-forward stocks. Production for the current season is estimated lower at 90–92 lakh bags versus 1.10 crore bags last year, with reduced output also expected in key global producing regions due to adverse weather. Support is further aided by the GST cut to 5%, which may boost FMCG and domestic demand. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 7.73% alongside a price decline of ?225. Jeera has support at 21,340, with further downside toward 21,120, while resistance is seen at 21,840 and then 22,120.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21120-22120.

* Jeera dropped due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 398,596 hectares down by 14.20% compared to last years 464,570 hectares.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21971.85 Rupees dropped by -0.39 percent.

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