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Gold

Gold futures surged 2.06% to 132469 after the US Federal Reserve delivered its third consecutive 25 bps rate cut and maintained guidance for only one additional cut in 2026. The decision brought borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022, though the committee remained divided, with three dissenting votes. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the need to assess the impact of the recent easing cycle, while President Donald Trump criticized the cut as too small and indicated he may replace Powell, naming Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett as potential candidates. The Fed also raised its GDP growth projections for 2025 and 2026, underscoring a resilient economic backdrop. Strong official demand continued to support gold, with the People’s Bank of China adding to its reserves for the thirteenth straight month, lifting holdings to 74.12 million troy ounces. Central banks purchased 53 tonnes in October, marking the strongest monthly addition since late 2024. ETF inflows remained robust, with global gold ETFs posting a sixth consecutive monthly increase, adding US$5.2 billion in November and pushing AUM to a record US$530 billion. Physical markets, however, saw mixed activity: India faced weak demand due to high domestic prices and widening discounts, while China saw volatility-driven fluctuations. Indonesia’s new gold export duties also added to global market dynamics. Technically, the market is in short covering, with open interest falling 3.56% to 13255 while prices jumped 2673 rupees. Support is placed at 130865, with further downside toward 129265, while resistance lies at 133320, above which prices may test 134175.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 129265-134175.

* Gold gains after Fed delivered an expected third consecutive interest rate cut and maintained its outlook for just one cut in 2026.

* President Trump says Fed’s 25bp cut should have been “At Least Doubled”

* The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps to a range of 3.5%–3.75% in its December 2025 meeting.

Silver

Silver surged 5.41% to 198942, marking a fresh record high as the global market tightened sharply amid deepening supply deficits and plunging inventories. London silver stocks have fallen to their lowest levels since 2025, reflecting rapid drawdowns and heightened physical market stress. China’s announcement of strict silver export controls for 2026 has further accelerated demand as fabricators scramble to secure material ahead of restrictions. Structural supply constraints persist, with mine production and recycling essentially flat for more than a decade, while industrial demand—driven by solar PV, electronics, EV components, and battery technologies—continues to escalate. The global deficit is projected to widen to nearly 125 million ounces in 2025, marking the fifth straight year of shortage and bringing the cumulative gap since 2021 to close to 800 million ounces. The Federal Reserve’s latest 25 bps cut to the 3.50%–3.75% range maintained an accommodative stance, though Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the threshold for future rate cuts remains high. Simultaneously, liquidity concerns increased as Chinese inventories hit decade lows and exports surged to a record 660 tons in October. Despite a recent 3.5% rise in LBMA silver inventories to 27,187 tonnes, borrowing costs in London remain elevated. Technically, the market is in fresh buying territory, with open interest up 2.07% to 12532 while prices jumped 10207 rupees. Support stands at 192830, with deeper downside toward 186715, while resistance is seen at 202140, above which prices may target 205335.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 186715-205335.

* Silver notched record high of 197000 amid concerns over a market deficit.

* Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the bar for further interest rate cuts is very high.

* Fed keeps the door open for further monetary easing after reducing interest rates by 25 bps to 3.50%-3.75%.

Crude oil

Crude oil futures declined 1.2% to 5179 as sentiment weakened following reports that President Trump’s proposed Ukraine peace plan includes restoring Russian energy flows to Europe, a development that eased supply risk premiums. This softening came after recent concerns triggered by the US interception of a sanctioned tanker near Venezuela, which had temporarily raised fears of disrupted shipments. The broader market tone remained bearish, with rising OPEC+ output expected to exceed subdued demand and contribute to an oversupplied market. November data showed Russian production rising marginally to 9.367 million bpd, while Kazakhstan also remained above its OPEC+ quota. In the US, crude inventories fell by 1.812 million barrels, smaller than expected, while Cushing stocks increased by 308,000 barrels. Gasoline and distillate inventories surged by 6.397 million and 2.502 million barrels respectively, reinforcing supply-side pressure. The IEA, in its latest report, trimmed supply growth estimates for 2025–2026, citing sanctions on Russia and Venezuela, but slightly lifted demand projections due to stronger macroeconomic indicators. OPEC+ output rose to 43.06 million bpd in November, although the group maintained firm demand expectations for 2026, projecting average requirements of around 43 million bpd. Technically, crude oil is under fresh selling pressure, supported by a 0.59% rise in open interest to 11849 as prices slipped 63 rupees. Immediate support is placed at 5131, with further downside potential toward 5084. Resistance is seen at 5254, and a breakout above this could carry prices toward 5330.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5084-5330.

* Crude oil dropped following reports that President Trump’s Ukraine peace plan proposal includes restoring Russian energy to Europe

* IEA lifted its 2026 global oil demand growth forecasts while trimming its supply growth predictions in its latest monthly oil market report.

* OPEC says OPEC+ raised output in November, leaves demand view steady

Natural gas

Natural gas futures extended sharp losses, settling 9.39% lower at 381.1 amid persistent pressure from near-record U.S. output, comfortable storage levels, and subdued global prices. Production in the Lower 48 states averaged 109.6 bcfd so far in December, matching November’s all-time high. Although daily output has eased to around 108.4 bcfd after touching a record 111.3 bcfd on November 28, overall supply conditions remain exceptionally strong. Robust output has enabled operators to maintain storage at healthy levels, with inventories currently 5% above the seasonal norm. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reaffirmed expectations of record production and demand in 2025, projecting dry gas output rising to 107.7 bcfd next year and 109.1 bcfd in 2026. Consumption is also expected to climb to 91.8 bcfd in 2025 before moderating in 2026. These estimates are broadly consistent with prior forecasts, underscoring a structurally well-supplied market. Storage withdrawals for the week ended December 5 came in at 177 bcf, marking the fourth week of the withdrawal season. Total stocks now stand at 3,746 bcf—0.7% below last year but still 2.8% above the five-year average, reinforcing the oversupply narrative. From a technical standpoint, the market is under renewed selling pressure, reflected in a substantial 31.66% jump in open interest to 22,188 contracts as prices declined by 39.5 rupees. Immediate support is placed at 368.3, with a breach potentially opening the way toward 355.5. Resistance is now situated at 405.6, and a breakout above this level may trigger further upside toward 430.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 355.5-430.1.

* Natural gas dropped amid near-record output, ample amounts of gas in storage and lower prices around the world.

* US energy firms withdrew 177 bcf of natural gas from domestic storages for a total stock of 3,746 bcf.

* U.S. natural gas output and demand will both rise to record highs in 2025 – EIA

Copper

Copper futures rallied 2.42% to 1111.85, supported by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s quarter-point rate cut and ongoing outflows of copper toward U.S. warehouses, which reinforced concerns about tightening supply elsewhere. A softer dollar post-Fed decision added to the positive momentum. On the macro front, China signaled continued fiscal support and an accommodative monetary stance for 2026, although mixed economic indicators persist, with consumer inflation rising while factory-gate prices remain in deflation. LME data reflected a significant rise in China-origin copper stocks, which climbed to 130,225 tons in November from 100,400 tons, supported by a favorable arbitrage that encouraged exports. The share of Chinese copper on LME warrant rose to 85%. Despite these flows, fundamentals tightened as the global refined copper market posted a 51,000-ton deficit in September versus a 41,000-ton surplus in August, according to the ICSG. For January–September, the surplus narrowed sharply to 94,000 tons from 310,000 tons a year earlier. China’s refined copper imports fell for the second straight month in November to 427,000 tons, reflecting demand pressure from high prices and declining Yangshan premiums. However, smelters’ decision to cut 2026 output by 10% is expected to tighten refined supply further.  Technically, the market is in short-covering mode, reflected by a 12.33% drop in open interest to 7,339 as prices advanced 26.25 rupees. Immediate support stands at 1093, with a break potentially exposing 1074. Resistance is positioned at 1122.5, and a sustained move above this level could open the path toward 1133.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1074-1133.

* Copper rose as Fed cut interest rates, while continuing outflows to U.S. copper stocks supported worries about tighter supply.

* China to keep fiscal deficit, flexibly use monetary tools in 2026

* Chinese copper stocks on the LME increased to 130,225 tons at the end of last month from 100,400 tons in October.

Zinc

Zinc futures gained 3.17% to settle at 320.1, supported by a softer U.S. dollar following the Federal Reserve’s rate cut and tightening availability of deliverable metal at LME warehouses. The bullish tone was reinforced by stronger eurozone business activity in November, which expanded at its fastest pace in two and a half years. On the fundamental side, the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 20,300 tons in September from 32,700 tons in August, according to ILZSG, reflecting improving demand–supply balance. Expectations of another Fed rate cut further buoyed sentiment. However, the upside remained capped as LME zinc stocks surged to 54,325 tons, marking a notable 60% increase since early November. Domestic dynamics in China added mixed cues. Several zinc mines are set to undergo routine maintenance in December, reducing concentrate output, while SHFE-monitored zinc inventories fell 4.17% from last week. Meanwhile, China’s refined zinc exports surged sharply in October to 8,519 tons, up 243.8% month-on-month, driven by domestic smelters shifting to overseas markets amid LME tightness and subdued local demand. Production trends show volatility: China’s refined zinc output dropped 4% in September month-on-month yet rose over 20% year-on-year, with cumulative nine-month production up nearly 9%.  Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, indicated by a 10.51% rise in open interest to 3,439 alongside a 9.85-rupee price increase. Key support stands at 313.2, with a break exposing 306.3. Resistance is pegged at 324.4, and a move above this level may open the path toward 328.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 306.3-328.7.

* Zinc prices rose supported by a softer dollar after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates.

* Global zinc market surplus declined to 20,300 metric tons in September from 32,700 tons in August.

* A zinc mine in Central China is planning a routine maintenance shutdown in December, resulting in fewer production days.

Aluminium

Aluminium futures gained 1.41% to settle at 280.7, supported by sharply higher Japanese import premiums for Q1 2026 at $190–$203 per ton, a notable 121%–136% jump from the current quarter. Market sentiment also improved on expectations of additional stimulus measures in China, the world’s top metals consumer. LME warehouse data indicated a shift in stock composition, with Russian-origin aluminium rising to 53% of available inventories, while Indian-origin material held steady at 40%. Fundamental cues remained mixed. Concerns about Chinese demand persisted, yet the downside was tempered by structural supply constraints as smelters near state-imposed capacity ceilings, limiting production expansion. International Aluminium Institute data showed global primary aluminium output rising only 0.6% year-on-year in October to 6.294 million tonnes, indicating subdued supply growth. Additional supply pressures emerged from operational disruptions, including potline suspension at Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter and Alcoa’s decision to shut its Kwinana refinery in Australia. Japanese port stocks declined 3.6% month-on-month to 329,100 tonnes, adding to the tightening narrative. Trade data showed strong Chinese activity: October imports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products rose 10.4% year-on-year to 350,000 tonnes, following a hefty September surge. Technically, the market is in fresh buying territory, evidenced by a 6.38% rise in open interest to 3,117 alongside a 3.9-rupee price increase. Support is placed at 278, with further downside risk toward 275.2 if breached. Resistance stands at 282.5, and a breakout above this level could open a move toward 284.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 275.2-284.2.

* Aluminium rose as producers sought sharply higher Japan Q1 premiums of $190–$203 per ton.

* Support also seen amid concerns that Chinese smelters are nearing government-imposed capacity limits, constraining supply.

* Global primary aluminium output in October rose 0.6% year on year to 6.294 million tonnes – IAI

Turmeric

Turmeric futures edged higher by 0.73% to 15124 as arrivals continued to remain below normal and demand stayed firm in both domestic and overseas markets. Farmers and stockists have significantly reduced their holdings, offering strong underlying support ahead of the new crop cycle. Continuous rainfall across major producing states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Erode has led to waterlogging, crop disease outbreaks, and an estimated 15–20% damage to rhizomes. These adverse weather conditions have delayed arrivals to February–March, while IPM and EU/US-compliant material is expected only after May 2026. Carry-forward stocks are at record lows, tightening availability and keeping prices elevated. International demand remains robust, particularly from Europe and the USA, even as Indonesia reported below-normal crop quality this season. Although upside potential is slightly limited due to a likely 15–20% increase in acreage driven by favourable sowing weather, immediate supplies remain constrained. Turmeric acreage for 2024–25 stands at 3.30 lakh hectares, up 10% from the previous year. Exports during Apr–Sep 2025 rose 4.02% to 96,679.67 tonnes, with September shipments up 7.59% year-on-year. Spot prices at Nizamabad strengthened by 1.18% to 15191.7. Technically, the market is in short covering mode, supported by a 5.68% drop in open interest to 6305 while prices advanced by 110 rupees. Immediate support is placed at 14848, with further downside risks toward 14574, whereas resistance is seen at 15448, and a sustained break above could push prices toward 15774.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14574-15774.

* Cotton gains as farmers are facing the prospect of poor crop yield due to heavy rains

* However upside seen limited as market demand was weak and payment flow remained slow.

* 15-20% crop damage has been reported from the major growing areas due to excessive rain and water logging.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15191.7 Rupees gained by 1.18 percent.

Jeera

Jeera futures declined by 1.37% to 20925 as comfortable supplies and muted export interest weighed on prices, although the downside remained limited due to delayed sowing and weather-related disruptions. Gujarat’s sowing stood at 2,60,925 hectares, marginally lower than last year, as uneven rainfall delayed field preparation. Arrivals at Unjha remained low, with premium-quality cumin fetching better prices. Export demand from Gulf nations and China has improved slightly but remains highly price-sensitive. India and Middle Eastern supply-chain disruptions are keeping availability tight. Traders note that the post-festival slowdown and subdued foreign buying continue to pressure the market, while low arrivals provide intermittent support. GST reduction to 5% is expected to aid FMCG-linked domestic and export demand. Farmers are estimated to hold nearly 20 lakh bags, but only 3–4 lakh bags may be traded this season, leaving a large carry-forward stock. Production forecasts indicate 90–92 lakh bags for the current season, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, with Gujarat pegged at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. Global output, particularly in China, Turkey, Syria, and Afghanistan, is also seen lower due to adverse conditions. Jeera exports for Apr–Sep 2025 fell 14.51% year-on-year, though September shipments rose both annually and monthly. Unjha spot prices slipped 0.22% to 21035. Technically, long liquidation is evident as open interest dropped 13.94% to 2037 alongside a 290-rupee price decline. Support is at 20760, with further weakness likely toward 20570, while resistance is at 21250, above which prices may test 21550.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20570-21550.

* Jeera dropped due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* However, downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 2,60,925 hectares down by 0.45% compared to last years 2,62,115 hectares.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21035 Rupees dropped by -0.22 percent.

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