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Gold

Gold prices edged lower by 0.29%, settling at 130,078 as traders booked profits and adopted a cautious stance ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Markets are awaiting key U.S. data releases, including the delayed September PCE report, which may offer clearer cues on the Fed’s policy path. The November ADP report showed an unexpected 32,000 job loss versus expectations of a 10,000 gain, marking the sharpest hiring slowdown since 2023. This further supported dovish expectations, with rate futures now pricing in nearly a 90% probability of a 25 bps cut next week. Geopolitical tensions also lent mild support, as U.S.–Russia talks on the Ukraine conflict concluded without progress. Central banks continued their strong buying trend, adding a net 53 tonnes of gold in October— the highest monthly addition since November 2024. Poland and Brazil led purchases, while China extended its buying streak to a 12th month, reaching 2,304 tonnes. Russia was the only net seller, trimming 3 tonnes. However, high global prices weakened physical demand across key Asian hubs. Indian dealers offered discounts up to $18/oz despite the wedding season, while China saw mixed premiums and discounts due to the removal of VAT exemption on gold purchases. Singapore and Hong Kong traded near par to small premiums. Technically, fresh selling pressure is evident as open interest increased 0.11% to 13,025 while prices fell 384. Support is placed at 129,360, with a break exposing 128,645. Resistance is at 130,795, above which 131,515 may be tested.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 128645-131515.

* Gold fell as investors booked profits and turned slightly cautious, awaiting clearer signals ahead of FOMC meeting.

* November ADP reading showed an unexpected loss of 32,000 private sector jobs, far below expectations for a 10,000 gain.

* However, Geopolitical tensions offered some support, after US-Russia talks on the Ukraine war ended without progress.

Silver

Silver prices retreated sharply by 2.31%, settling at 178,138 as traders booked profits and reassessed the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook for 2026. Weak U.S. labor market data strengthened expectations of a 25 bps rate cut next week. ADP data showed an unexpected decline in private payrolls, while Challenger job cuts rose 25% year-on-year, with U.S. employers announcing 71,321 layoffs in November—the highest for the month since 2022. Although layoffs eased from October’s 153,074, the trend reflects mounting labor market stress and supports the case for monetary easing. Despite the price decline, silver fundamentals remain supportive. Silver-backed ETFs added nearly 200 tonnes, pushing global holdings to their highest level since 2022. A record amount of silver flowed into London last month, easing tightness in the key OTC hub, while inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses dropped to their lowest since 2015. China exported more than 660 tonnes of silver in October—the highest ever—to counter domestic shortages, yet liquidity concerns persist. London vault holdings climbed to 26,255 tonnes in October, rising 6.8% month-on-month after an inflow of 1,674 tonnes helped ease borrowing rates, though they remain elevated. Technically, fresh selling pressure is evident with open interest rising 5.59% to 14,599 as prices fell 4,214. Immediate support stands at 175,705, with a further downside test likely at 173,265. Resistance is now placed at 181,735, and a break above this level could push prices toward 185,325.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 173265-185325.

* Silver dropped on profit booking as markets continued to gauge the Federal Reserve's rate outlook for the upcoming year.

* US-based employers announced 71,321 job cuts in November 2025, the highest for the month since 2022.

* Data showed silver-backed ETFs added about 200 tons, lifting total holdings to the highest level since 2022.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices edged higher by 0.50% to 5,383, supported by persistent geopolitical risks as hopes for a Russia–Ukraine peace resolution faded. Russia’s firm stance on retaining captured territories and Ukraine’s unwillingness to concede has diminished expectations of any ceasefire. Additional support came from Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, including a hit on the Druzhba pipeline in Tambov—the fifth such attack—though flows to Hungary and Slovakia reportedly remained unaffected. However, the upside remained capped by concerns of weak global demand and rising oversupply. U.S. crude inventories increased by 0.574 million barrels last week, against expectations of a draw, while gasoline stocks surged by 4.52 million barrels. Distillate inventories also fell less than forecast. At the same time, U.S. oil production climbed to a record 13.84 million bpd in September, with New Mexico and offshore Gulf output also hitting multi-year highs. Globally, the IEA and Fitch Ratings signaled widening market surpluses, with supply projected to outpace demand significantly in 2026. OPEC+ maintained its Q1 2026 production levels, reflecting caution amid fears of a deepening supply glut. Technically, the market witnessed short covering as open interest dipped 0.68% to 13,203 while prices gained 27. Crude oil now finds support at 5,326, with further weakness likely toward 5,269. Resistance stands at 5,419, and a move above this level could open the path toward 5,455.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5269-5455.

* Crude oil soared as expectations of an end to the Russia-Ukraine war dimmed.

* Gains also seen supported by Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil assets and stalled peace talks.

* Ukraine struck the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia’s Tambov region, the fifth attack on the route supplying Hungary and Slovakia.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices slipped 0.58% to 447.4 as concerns over ample supplies outweighed support from colder weather forecasts. Pressure persisted as U.S. storage levels remain about 5% above the seasonal average, while declining gas prices in Europe and Asia—due in part to speculation that potential Ukraine peace talks could ease sanctions on Russia—kept global sentiment weak. Still, downside remained limited by record LNG feedgas flows. Meteorologists expect below-normal temperatures across the U.S. through December 9, with the coldest spell around Thursday, before a return to warmer conditions next week. LSEG data showed Lower-48 output rising to 109.7 bcfd so far in December, surpassing November’s record, although daily production recently dipped from the 111.3 bcfd high. Strong output has enabled robust storage, with inventories at 3,923 bcf after a 12 bcf withdrawal last week—just 0.5% below last year but well above the five-year norm. The EIA projected U.S. gas production to climb to 107.1 bcfd in 2025, with consumption also hitting record highs. LNG exports are expected to surge to 14.7 bcfd in 2025 and 16.3 bcfd in 2026, up from the current record of 11.9 bcfd. Technically, natural gas is under long liquidation, with open interest down 14.23% to 24,555 as prices eased 2.6. Support is placed at 438.6, with further weakness toward 429.9. Resistance is now at 455.8, and a breakout could lift prices toward 464.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 429.9-464.3.

* Natural gas fell as worries about abundant supplies.

* Pressure also seen ample amounts of gas in storage and lower gas prices in Europe and Asia.

* US energy firms withdrew 12 billion cubic feet of natural gas from domestic storages for a total stock of 3,923 bcf.

Copper

Copper edged lower by 0.27% to 1073.6 as traders booked profits, easing the panic around tight supplies that recently fueled a sharp rally. LME data showed an additional 7,775 warrant cancellations in South Korea after over 50,725 tons were cancelled in Asia a day earlier, amplifying concerns over near-term availability. This pushed the LME cash–three-month spread to a premium of around $88/ton, reflecting strong immediate demand. Goldman Sachs lifted its average LME copper forecast for H1 2026 to $10,710 amid persistent supply strain. Chinese smelters and miners are struggling in 2026 contract talks, with miners holding an advantage as TC/RCs remain negative. Meanwhile, U.S.-bound shipments increased as traders took advantage of elevated Comex prices, further supported by volatility after a brief CME trading halt. Global supply remains pressured: Chile’s October output fell 7% YoY, SHFE inventories dropped 11.46% weekly, and LME stocks are down 42% this year. Although the global copper cathode market shows a surplus for 2025, a 500,000-ton concentrate deficit looms for 2026. The ICSG reported a 51,000-ton refined copper deficit for September, reversing August’s surplus, even as China’s refined output rose 8.9% YoY. Technically, copper is under long liquidation, with open interest slipping 0.07% to 8,140 as prices eased by 2.95. Support is placed at 1063.6, with a break opening downside toward 1053.5. Resistance is at 1085.5, and a move above this could lift prices toward 1097.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1053.5-1097.3.

* Copper dropped on profit booking as panic over tight supplies that caused a price spike had started to ease.

* LME logs 7,775 new warrant cancellations in S Korea after 50,725t a day earlier.

* Goldman Sachs, raised its average LME copper price forecast for the first half of 2026 to $10,710 from $10,415.

Zinc

Zinc edged lower by 0.24% to 308.25 as traders booked profits after recent gains driven by tightening availability in LME-registered warehouses. Sentiment earlier remained supported by stronger eurozone business activity, which expanded at its fastest pace in over two years, along with expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut and a softer dollar. The global zinc market surplus narrowed to 20,300 tons in September from 32,700 tons in August, according to ILZSG data, offering additional support. Supply concerns intensified as mines in Central and Southwest China are set for maintenance shutdowns in December, likely reducing zinc concentrate output. SHFE inventories also declined 4.42% week-on-week, although rising LME stocks — now at 49,925 tons, up 47% since early November — capped further upside. China’s refined zinc exports surged 243% in October amid LME tightness and subdued domestic demand. Despite this, weak Chinese economic indicators raised demand concerns. Globally, refined zinc production is projected to rise 2.7% to 13.8 million tons in 2025, while inventories outside China remain extremely low. Chinese refined output showed mixed trends, falling in September but expected to rise again in October due to resumed production in several provinces. Technically, zinc remains under fresh selling pressure with open interest up 5.25% to 3,349 as prices slipped 0.75. Support is placed at 305.9 and below that at 303.6, while resistance stands at 310.6, with a breakout opening the path toward 313.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 303.6-313.

* Zinc dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid tighter availability of metal in warehouses registered with the LME.

* Data showed business activity in the euro zone expanded in November at its fastest pace in two and a half years.

* Global zinc market surplus declined to 20,300 metric tons in September from 32,700 tons in August.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices remained unchanged at 278.25 as persistent concerns over China’s demand outlook kept sentiment cautious. However, the downside stayed limited due to worries that Chinese smelters are nearing government-imposed capacity ceilings, restricting supply growth. SHFE aluminium inventories fell 6.82% from last Friday, adding to the supportive tone. Global supply concerns also persisted, with disruptions at major facilities including the suspension of a potline at Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter and Alcoa’s decision to shut the Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia due to declining bauxite grades. Century Aluminium also curtailed two-thirds of output at its Iceland smelter after an equipment failure. Meanwhile, global primary aluminium production in October edged 0.6% higher year-on-year to 6.294 million tonnes, while stocks at Japan’s key ports dropped 3.6% to 329,100 tonnes. On the demand front, China’s aluminium imports rose 10.4% in October, supported by strong consumption from transportation, construction and packaging sectors, following a 35% surge in September. Exports in July also climbed to 542,000 tonnes. Market forecasts remained mixed, with Goldman Sachs projecting LME prices to ease to $2,350 per tonne in Q4 2026, while ANZ raised its short-term target to $2,900 amid resilient global demand. Technically, aluminium is under long liquidation, with open interest down 3.98% to 3,280. Support lies at 276.5 and then 274.7, while resistance is placed at 279.8, with a break above likely opening the path toward 281.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 274.7-281.3.

* Aluminium dropped as concern about demand in top metals consumer China weighed on the market.

* However, downside limited amid concerns that Chinese smelters are nearing government-imposed capacity limits, constraining supply.

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 6.82% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric futures extended their upward momentum, settling 0.69% higher at 14,586 as weather-related disruptions continued to impact supply prospects. Key growing regions in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka have reported yield losses due to persistent rains, leading to heavy arrivals in Erode. However, continuous rainfall in the Erode belt has triggered disease outbreaks and increased humidity, making crop preservation difficult. Additionally, recent heavy rainfall in Nanded has damaged nearly 15% of the standing turmeric crop, adding to supply concerns. Despite these short-term disruptions, the upside remains capped as market participants factor in a likely increase in acreage for the current sowing season. Favourable monsoon conditions and relatively lower profitability of alternative crops are encouraging farmers to expand turmeric cultivation. Preliminary estimates indicate acreage could rise by 15–20%, while for 2024–25, the total area has already climbed to 3.30 lakh hectares—10% higher than last season. On the supply side, turmeric stocks with farmers in Warangal are nearly exhausted, with no fresh arrivals reported for two consecutive days. Export demand remains encouraging, with shipments during April–September 2025 rising by 4.02% to 96,679.67 tonnes compared to last year. September exports grew 7.59% year-on-year, though showed a marginal monthly dip of 3.58%. Technically, fresh buying is evident with open interest rising 0.39% to 7,740 contracts while prices gained 100. Turmeric has support at 14,444, with further downside risk toward 14,302. Resistance is placed at 14,674, and a breakout above this could push prices toward 14,762.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14302-14762.

* Turmeric gained as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* Due to continuous rains in Erode, disease outbreaks have started emerging in some areas.

* However upside seen limited amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15026.35 Rupees gained by 1.01 percent.

Jeera

Jeera futures slipped marginally by 0.09% to settle at 21,580, as comfortable domestic supplies and subdued export interest weighed on prices. Adequate stocks and price-sensitive overseas buyers, particularly from the Gulf and China, kept export momentum restrained. However, the downside remained restricted due to weather-related delays in sowing and reduced acreage in Gujarat. As of 1 December 2025, jeera sowing in the state declined by 7.74% to 194,775 hectares against 211,121 hectares last year, with uneven rainfall leaving fields unprepared and resulting in one of the slowest sowing starts in recent years. Arrivals in the Unjha market continue to stay thin, supporting higher prices for quality material. While export demand has improved slightly, overall sentiment remains cautious due to logistical challenges in India and the Middle East. Traders note that the conclusion of the retail season and limited foreign inquiries have softened market confidence, though low arrivals and festive-period disruptions have offered intermittent support. The GST Council’s decision to cut tax to 5% is expected to aid FMCG exports and domestic demand. Farmers still hold roughly 20 lakh bags, with only 3–4 lakh bags expected to be traded this season, leaving nearly 16 lakh bags as carry-forward stock. Production estimates suggest a drop to 90–92 lakh bags versus 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat expected to produce 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan 48–50 lakh bags. Jeera exports for Apr–Sep 2025 fell 14.51% year-on-year, though September shipments rose 22.93% over August. Spot prices in Unjha gained 0.3% to 21,450.85. Technically, long liquidation is visible as open interest dropped 2.67% to 2,841. Support lies at 21,400, below which 21,230 may be tested. Resistance is placed at 21,740, with a breakout likely toward 21,910.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21230-21910.

* Jeera dropped due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing dropped by 7.74 to 194,775 hectares compared to 211,121 hectares last year.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21450.85 Rupees gained by 0.3 percent.

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