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Gold

Gold extended its upward momentum, settling 0.11% higher at 130107 as markets increasingly priced in a potential Federal Reserve rate cut. Investor focus now shifts to the Fed’s updated economic projections and Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary, which are expected to offer clearer insight into the policy path heading into 2026. Ahead of the decision, the JOLTS job openings report remains key for gauging labor market dynamics. Gold has rallied nearly 60% this year, supported by sustained central bank buying, solid ETF inflows, and strong safe-haven interest. China’s central bank raised its gold reserves for the 13th consecutive month to 74.12 million troy ounces, while global central banks added 53 tonnes in October, led by Poland and Brazil. ETF demand also remained firm, with global gold ETFs marking their sixth straight month of inflows, totaling $5.2 billion in November and pushing AUM to $530 billion, the highest on record. In physical markets, Indian gold prices neared record highs, dampening retail demand and widening dealer discounts to $22 per ounce. China saw mixed premiums and discounts amid volatility, while Singapore and Hong Kong traded in tight premium ranges. Fresh buying interest was evident with open interest rising 3.06% to 13,404 as prices gained 145 rupees. Immediate support is placed at 129320, below which prices could slide toward 128530. Resistance is seen at 130680, and a breakout above this zone may open the door for a test of 131250.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 128530-131250.

* Gold remained in range as investors priced in a Federal Reserve rate cut.

* Updated economic projections and comments from Chair Powell should provide greater clarity on the policy path into 2026.

* Global physically backed gold ETFs registered their sixth consecutive monthly inflow, adding US$5.2bn in November.

Silver

Silver jumped 3.48% to 188064 as investors positioned themselves ahead of an expected U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, although uncertainty persists regarding the 2026 policy outlook, with expectations of a possible “hawkish cut” from Chair Jerome Powell. The metal recently surged to record highs, supported by dwindling visible inventories, renewed ETF inflows, and expectations of another supply deficit this year. Industrial demand—especially from solar and green technologies—continues to strengthen the medium-term bullish outlook. Silver-backed ETFs added nearly 200 tonnes, pushing total holdings to their highest levels since 2022. A significant volume of silver moved into London last month, tightening availability in other markets, while Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories fell to their lowest in a decade. Chinese exports spiked to a record 660 tonnes in October, further reshuffling global supply flows. Meanwhile, U.S. macro data showed steady inflation trends, with the PCE index rising 0.3% and personal spending also up 0.3%. Liquidity concerns persist globally as borrowing costs remain elevated, and traders monitor potential U.S. tariffs after silver’s inclusion in the U.S. critical minerals list. LBMA data showed London vault silver stocks rising 3.5% to 27,187 tonnes in November. The market saw short covering, reflected in a 7.12% drop in open interest to 12,806 as prices rallied 6,322 rupees. Key support lies at 182555, and a break below could drag prices toward 177045. Resistance is positioned at 191120, and a sustained move above this level may trigger a rise toward 194175.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 177045-194175.

* Silver makes record high as investors prepared for an expected interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve.

* Prices gains supported by low visible exchange inventories, renewed ETF accumulation, and expectations of another market deficit this year.

* Strong industrial demand from solar and other green technologies further underpins the medium-term case for higher prices.

Crude Oil 

Crude oil fell 1.65% to 5246 as concerns over a widening supply glut overshadowed persistent geopolitical risks. Market participants now await forthcoming IEA and OPEC+ reports for clearer insight into supply-demand expectations. The IEA had earlier projected a substantial 2026 surplus, while OPEC+ recently shifted its Q3 outlook from deficit to surplus. Additional weight came from Iraq restoring production at Lukoil’s West Qurna-2 oilfield, representing roughly 0.5% of global supply, helping offset risk premiums tied to stalled Ukraine peace efforts and escalating U.S.–Venezuela tensions. Fitch Ratings cut its 2025-2027 price assumptions, citing oversupply concerns and production growth outpacing consumption. Supply developments remained robust globally: U.S. production rose to a record 13.84 million bpd, with New Mexico and offshore Gulf output also hitting multi-year highs. China’s November crude imports surged nearly 5% year-on-year to 12.38 million bpd, the highest since August 2023. U.S. crude inventories rose for a second week by 0.574 million barrels, while gasoline stocks jumped 4.52 million barrels. The EIA’s latest outlook upgraded U.S. 2025 output expectations and reinforced concerns of a deeper 2026 surplus, echoed by the IEA, which now sees global supply growth outstripping demand by more than 4 million bpd in 2026. The market saw long liquidation, with open interest dropping 8.35% to 11,863 as prices declined 88 rupees. Immediate support is at 5210, and a break below may open the way toward 5175. Resistance stands at 5306, and a move above could push prices toward 5367.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5175-5367.

* Crude oil dropped as expectations of a supply glut outweighed geopolitical risks.

* Further weighing on prices, reports indicated that Iraq has restored production at Lukoil’s West Qurna-2 oilfield.

* In mid-October, the IEA projected a sizeable surplus for 2026, while OPEC+ last month revised its Q3 outlook from a deficit to a surplus.

Natural gas

Natural gas fell sharply by 6.06% to 421.7 as forecasts shifted toward milder weather over the next two weeks, reducing heating demand expectations. Near-record U.S. production, abundant storage levels, and lower global gas prices added further pressure to the market. Europe confirmed plans to fully phase out Russian LNG by 2027, underscoring ongoing supply diversification efforts, while U.S. LNG exports surged 40% year-on-year in November to 10.7 million tonnes. Total U.S. LNG exports for 2025 have already reached around 15 billion cubic meters, supported by rising output. According to the EIA, U.S. utilities withdrew 12 bcf of gas for the week ending November 28, marking the third straight weekly draw but coming in below expectations. Speculators cut their net long positions by more than 23,000 contracts, signaling weakening sentiment, while the U.S. gas rig count slipped to 129. Storage levels stood at 3,923 bcf, only 0.5% below last year but still 5.1% above the five-year average. The EIA’s latest outlook showed both output and demand trending toward fresh records, projecting dry gas production to rise to 107.1 bcfd in 2025 and 107.4 bcfd in 2026. Consumption is also set to climb to 91.6 bcfd in both 2025 and 2026, reflecting expectations of robust industrial and power-sector use. LNG exports are projected to increase sharply to 14.7 bcfd next year and 16.3 bcfd in 2026. Fresh selling dominated the session, with open interest rising 8.3% to 17,823 as prices dropped 27.2 rupees. Immediate support lies at 414.2, and a break below could extend declines toward 406.6. Resistance is positioned at 434.8, and a move above this level may open the path toward 447.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 406.6-447.8.

* Natural gas fell on forecasts for less cold weather, near-record output, ample amounts of gas in storage

* Milder weather forecasts through December 23rd have eased pressure on demand.

* Average gas output in the Lower 48 states has risen to 109.7 bcfd so far in December, above

Copper

Copper declined by 1.63% to 1079.2 as profit booking emerged amid persistent demand concerns from China, where policymakers signaled that supporting domestic consumption will remain a priority in 2026, though stimulus is expected to remain measured. While Citi upgraded its price outlook, projecting an average of USD 13,000 per ton in Q2 next year and raising its bull-case target to USD 15,000, the near-term sentiment was dampened by uncertainty around Chinese demand. SHFE copper inventories fell 9.2% to 88,905 tons, highlighting some tightening in local supply. Meanwhile, Rio Tinto raised its 2025 production forecast due to operational ramp-ups at Oyu Tolgoi, while Goldman Sachs also upgraded its price projections for early 2026. On the supply front, China’s smelters plan to cut refined output by more than 10% in 2026 as negative processing fees intensify, while Chile reported a 7% year-on-year decline in October output. The global refined market showed a 51,000-ton deficit in September compared with a surplus in August, although the January–September period still held a modest surplus of 94,000 tons. China’s copper imports fell for a second month to 427,000 tons as elevated global prices curbed buying, and Yangshan premiums continued to weaken, reflecting slower appetite for imports. Technical indicators reflect fresh selling pressure, with an 8.51% rise in open interest to 8,637 as prices dropped by 17.85 rupees. Support lies at 1,071.8, and a break below could extend declines toward 1,064.3. Resistance is positioned at 1,090.3, and a move above this level may lead to a test of 1,101.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1064.3-1101.3.

* Copper dropped on profit booking as investors weighed demand uncertainties from China.

* Large withdrawals from LME warehouses last month were likely driven by concerns over potential US levies on refined copper next year.

* There is an expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed, with 2–3 more cuts anticipated in 2026.

Zinc

Zinc declined by 1.11% to 310.55 as profit-taking set in following a strong rally, while renewed concerns over a slower pace of U.S. rate cuts and uncertainty around Chinese demand weighed on sentiment. Investors in China pared back expectations for near-term stimulus after key leadership meetings signaled a more measured policy stance. Nevertheless, losses were limited by tighter on-warrant availability in LME warehouses and improving activity indicators from the euro zone, where November business activity expanded at the fastest pace in over two years. Global fundamentals offered mixed cues. The zinc market surplus narrowed to 20,300 tons in September from 32,700 tons in August, according to ILZSG, although the refined zinc market still posted a cumulative surplus of 120,000 tons in the first nine months of 2025. Production disruptions also provided support, with multiple zinc mines in Central and Southwest China preparing for December maintenance shutdowns, curbing concentrate output. SHFE zinc inventories dropped 4.17% from last week, reflecting tightening domestic supply, though rising LME stocks—now up 60% since early November to 54,325 tons—capped upside momentum. China’s refined zinc production fell 4% month-on-month in September but surged over 20% year-on-year, while exports in October jumped nearly 244% amid weaker domestic demand and higher overseas premiums. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, reflected in a 10.89% decline in open interest to 3,223 as prices fell by 3.5 rupees. Support is at 309.4, with a break below exposing 308.1. Resistance is seen at 312.6, and a move beyond this level could push prices toward 314.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 308.1-314.5.

* Zinc dropped on profit-taking from a blistering rally, worries about the prospect of slower U.S. rate cuts.

* In China, some investors have scaled back expectations for near-term stimulus measures following a top Chinese leadership meeting.

* Global zinc market surplus declined to 20,300 metric tons in September from 32,700 tons in August

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 0.97% lower at 275.55 as traders booked profits following a 7.25% rise in SHFE-monitored inventories compared to last Friday. Sentiment remained pressured by persistent concerns over demand in China, the world’s largest metals consumer. However, the downside stayed limited amid expectations that Chinese smelters are approaching government-imposed capacity ceilings, which may restrict future supply growth. Market support also stemmed from improving demand prospects and constrained global output. According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium production rose only 0.6% year-on-year in October to 6.294 million tonnes. Japanese port stocks fell 3.6% in October to 329,100 tonnes, while operational troubles at major refineries tightened supply further. Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter suspended one potline due to electrical issues, and Century Aluminium also curtailed two-thirds of its Iceland output. On the trade front, China’s unwrought aluminium exports reached 542,000 tonnes in July, while October imports rose 10.4% year-on-year to 350,000 tonnes, reflecting persistent demand strength across transportation, construction, and packaging sectors. Cumulatively, imports during January–October climbed 6.1% to 3.36 million tonnes. Forecasts remained mixed, with Goldman Sachs projecting LME prices to ease to $2,350/t in Q4 2026, while ANZ raised its short-term target to $2,900/t on resilient manufacturing and auto demand. Technically, the market is experiencing long liquidation as open interest dropped 6.93% to 2,955, alongside a 2.7-rupee price decline. Aluminium holds support at 274.6, with a breach opening the path to 273.5, while resistance is placed at 277.4, above which prices may retest 279.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 273.5-279.1.

* Aluminium dropped on profit booking after SHFE inventories rose 7.25% from last Friday.

* Pressure also seen as concern about demand in top metals consumer China weighed on the market.

* Global primary aluminium output in October rose 0.6% year on year to 6.294 million tonnes - IAI

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled slightly lower by 0.19% at 14406 as higher acreage, supported by favourable rains during the current sowing season, weighed on prices. However, the downside remained limited due to yield losses in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, with Erode witnessing large inflows from these regions. Continuous rains in Erode have also triggered disease outbreaks, as excessive humidity hampers turmeric preservation. Recent heavy rainfall in Nanded damaged nearly 15% of the crop area, adding to supply concerns. Stocks with farmers in Warangal are almost exhausted, with no fresh arrivals for the past two days, while low inflows and cautious selling continue to lend firmness to prices. On the production front, current dry weather conditions favour timely planting, and preliminary estimates suggest a 15–20% increase in acreage, as alternative crops offer lower profitability. For 2024–25, turmeric acreage stood at 3.30 lakh hectares, up 10% from last season. Exports also remained supportive, rising 4.02% to 96,679.67 tonnes during Apr–Sep 2025. September exports were up 7.59% year-on-year but slipped 3.58% month-on-month. In Nizamabad, a key spot market, prices fell 0.21% to 14,855.05. Technically, the market is under long liquidation with open interest down 2.62% to 7,245. Turmeric has support at 14318, below which a test of 14228 is likely, while resistance is placed at 14510, and a break above could take prices towards 14612.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14228-14612.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* However downside seen limited as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* Due to continuous rains in Erode, disease outbreaks have started emerging in some areas.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14855.05 Rupees dropped by -0.21 percent.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled slightly higher by 0.17% at 20845 as weather-related delays and uneven rainfall continue to hinder sowing progress, keeping prices firm. In Gujarat, sowing stood at 2,60,925 hectares, marginally lower by 0.45% from last year, with farmers struggling to begin operations due to unprepared fields. Arrivals at Unjha remain extremely low, and good-quality cumin continues to fetch higher prices. Export demand from Gulf countries and China has improved mildly but remains highly price-sensitive amid logistical challenges and tight supplies in India and the Middle East. However, upside remains capped as foreign buyers remain inactive after the retail season, with ongoing export requirements being met through existing stocks. Low arrivals during Diwali and GST rate reduction to 5% have provided support by boosting FMCG and domestic demand. Farmers still hold nearly 20 lakh bags, but only 3–4 lakh bags are likely to be traded, leaving a heavy carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year's 1.10 crore bags. Gujarat’s output is estimated at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan’s at 48–50 lakh bags. Globally, output in China, Turkey, Syria and Afghanistan has declined due to adverse weather, yet India’s export demand remains weak. Apr–Sep 2025 exports fell 14.51% to 1,01,898.64 tonnes, though September exports rose 2.20% YoY and 22.93% MoM. Technically, the market is under short covering with open interest down 3.48% to 2,580. Jeera has support at 20670, below which 20470 may be tested, while resistance is at 21000, and a break above could take prices to 21130.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20470-21130.

* Jeera gains as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* However upside seen limited due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 2,60,925 hectares down by 0.45% compared to last years 2,62,115 hectares.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20901.3 Rupees dropped by -0.06 percent.

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