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Gold

Gold prices extended gains yesterday, rising 0.96% to settle at 1,05,792, supported by growing expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut this month. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point cut on September 17. Political pressure has also intensified, with former President Trump continuing his criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not reducing rates earlier. Market participants are now closely awaiting U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, which will provide clearer cues on the Fed’s next move. Investment flows further reinforced bullish sentiment, as SPDR Gold Trust holdings rose 1.01% to 977.68 tons, the highest level since August 2022. Demand for physical gold in India also showed slight improvement, as jewellers stocked up ahead of the festive season, despite elevated prices. Indian dealers charged premiums of up to $4 per ounce over domestic prices, compared to last week’s range of discounts to small premiums. With Dussehra and Diwali approaching in October, seasonal demand is expected to remain supportive. In China, gold traded at par to a $5 premium, while in Hong Kong and Singapore, dealers reported premiums up to $2.50 per ounce. Technically, gold is in fresh buying as open interest rose 4.05% to 17,641. Support is at 1,04,925, with further downside risk toward 1,04,065. Resistance is seen at 1,06,280, and a break above could push prices toward 1,06,775.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 104065-106775.

* Gold gains as mounting expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut this month lifted demand.

* Trump has criticised the Fed and its chair, Jerome Powell, for months for not lowering interest rates.

* Traders are currently pricing in a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut on September 17.

Silver

Silver prices eased slightly yesterday, settling down by -0.11% at 1,24,530 on profit booking, after recently rallying past the 1,25,000 mark. The pullback came as traders locked in gains, though overall sentiment remains firm amid mounting bets on U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts. Markets are currently pricing in nearly a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction later this month, with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly hinting at readiness to ease policy if labor market risks persist. Meanwhile, safe-haven demand continues to underpin silver amid concerns over Fed independence and uncertainty tied to Trump’s tariff policies. On the industrial front, strong demand remains a key driver, particularly from China’s solar sector, where exports of solar cells surged over 70% in the first half of 2025, with India leading as a major buyer. Silver-backed exchange-traded products (ETPs) also saw robust investor appetite, recording net inflows of 95 million ounces in the first half of 2025, pushing global holdings to 1.13 billion ounces, just 7% below the record peak of February 2021. Technically, silver is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping -3.14% to 20,027. Support lies at 1,23,300, and a break below could test 1,22,075. Resistance is seen at 1,25,500, with further gains possible toward 1,26,475 if momentum strengthens.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 122075-126475.

* Silver dropped on profit booking after prices rallied over 1,25,000 as traders increased bets on US Federal Reserve rate cuts.

* San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the central bank is prepared to ease policy given risks to the labor market.

* Demand was bolstered by China’s solar boom, with solar cell exports surging over 70% in the first half of the year

Crude oil

Crude oil prices moved higher yesterday, settling up by 1.46% at 5,786 amid renewed geopolitical concerns and supportive supply-side fundamentals. The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with recent drone strikes reportedly disabling around 17% of Russia’s oil processing capacity, added to fears of tighter global supplies. This development comes at a time when the market is closely tracking signs of demand resilience in China, where private survey data indicated the fastest manufacturing expansion in five months during August, providing some relief to near-term consumption outlook. On the supply-demand balance, U.S. inventory data lent additional support to prices. Crude stockpiles fell by 2.392 million barrels to 418.3 million, exceeding market expectations of a 2-million-barrel draw. Stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, dropped by 838,000 barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories also declined, signaling tighter product balances. Meanwhile, OPEC’s latest monthly report pointed to a stronger demand outlook for 2026, raising its global oil demand forecast by 100,000 barrels per day to 1.38 million bpd. Technically, the crude oil market is under short covering, with open interest falling by -4.45% to 11,435 as prices gained 83 points. Immediate support is placed at 5,713, with further downside risk towards 5,639 if breached. On the upside, resistance is seen at 5,843, and a break above this could push prices toward the next level at 5,899.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5639-5899.

* Crude oil rose amid growing concerns that ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict could further disrupt global supplies.

* Prices are also supported by signs of economic resilience in China.

* Ukrainian drone attacks have shut down facilities accounting for at least 17% of Russia's oil-processing capacity.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices edged higher yesterday, settling up by 0.23% at 261.9, marking the fifth consecutive daily gain – the longest winning streak since February. The recent rally has been supported by forecasts of stronger demand this week and strength across broader energy markets. However, upside momentum remains capped due to near-record output, abundant storage levels, and milder weather expectations, which could limit demand growth going forward. Analysts noted that record production has enabled U.S. energy firms to inject roughly 5% more gas into storage compared to the five-year seasonal average, underscoring ample availability. Despite this, storage data showed a smaller-than-expected injection of 18 bcf during the week ended August 22, versus market expectations of 26 bcf, providing some support to prices. U.S. inventories remain about 5% above the five-year average, keeping supply-side comfort intact. On the production front, average dry gas output in the Lower 48 states dipped slightly in early September, while LNG feedgas demand also eased. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its latest outlook, projected dry gas production to rise from 103.2 bcfd in 2024 to a record 106.4 bcfd in 2025 before easing to 106.1 bcfd in 2026. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.27% to 28,244. Support is seen at 255.6, below which prices may test 249.4, while resistance is placed at 266, with further upside potential towards 270.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 249.4-270.2.

* Natural gas gains as forecasts pointed to stronger demand this week, alongside gains in other energy markets.

* Upside limited due to near-record output, ample storage levels, and expectations of milder weather that could cap demand.

* Average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 107.6 billion cubic feet per day so far in September.

Copper

Copper prices moved higher yesterday, settling up by 1.04% at 907.2, supported by strong Chinese demand even as global trade tensions and a firmer dollar limited broader upside. A private PMI survey showed China’s factory activity expanded at its fastest pace in five months, driven by rising new orders, reinforcing expectations of resilient consumption from the world’s top copper consumer. On the inventory side, data showed mixed trends. LME copper stocks rose to a three-month high of 158,900 mt, while SHFE copper inventories edged down 2.39% to 79,748 mt, reflecting steady demand in China. International copper inventories decreased slightly by 427 mt to 12,428 mt, while COMEX stocks surged to 277,843 mt, their highest since January 2004. Meanwhile, supply data indicated Chile’s copper output increased marginally by 0.3% year-on-year in July to 445,214 mt, while Peru posted a stronger 7.1% year-on-year rise in June, led by output from the Las Bambas mines. Market forecasts also supported sentiment. Citi raised its 0-3 month copper price outlook to $9,200 per tonne from $8,800, while Chile’s Cochilco maintained its forecast at $4.30 per pound for 2025 and 2026, citing limited concentrate supply and sustained Chinese demand. Technically, copper is under fresh buying as open interest rose 2.66% to 6,944 alongside higher prices. Support is at 899.1, below which prices could test 890.9, while resistance is placed at 911.7, with further upside potential towards 916.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 890.9-916.1.

* Copper prices rose supported by robust Chinese demand.

* China's factory activity in August expanded at the quickest pace in five months on the back of rising new orders.

* LME copper inventories rebounded overall last week, with the latest inventory, hitting a three-month high.

Zinc

Zinc prices edged higher yesterday, settling up by 0.94% at 274.75, supported by expectations of capacity cuts by Chinese miners and refiners. Sentiment also improved after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled a likely rate cut in September, easing global credit conditions and weakening the dollar, which in turn supported base metals. On the supply side, Beijing’s pledge to curb capacity to address deflationary pressures has further fueled bets of output reductions, lending strength to zinc prices. Global fundamentals continue to show a mixed picture. Earlier, Teck Resources’ Red Dog mine reported a 20% drop in Q1 output, while Nyrstar announced a 25% annual cut, adding to supply concerns. LME zinc inventories have fallen sharply by 130,000 tonnes since the beginning of the year to 42,000 tonnes, although SHFE stocks posted a slight weekly rise of 1.3%. Meanwhile, the euro zone’s recent uptick in new orders, expanding at the fastest pace in 15 months, provided demand-side support. However, global refined zinc market dynamics remain somewhat bearish, with ILZSG data showing a deficit of 27,200 tons in June, but a surplus of 47,000 tons during the first half of 2025. China’s refined zinc production surged by 23% YoY in July, with smelters ramping up output following routine maintenance across several provinces.  Technically, the market is under fresh buying, as open interest jumped 6.27% to 3,611 alongside higher prices. Zinc now finds support at 273.3, below which it may test 271.7, while resistance is seen at 275.9, with a breakout potentially taking prices to 276.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 271.7-276.9.

* Zinc gained amid likelihood of capacity cuts by Chinese miners and refiners.

* The developments were consistent with lower LME inventories, dropped by 130,000 tonnes since the start of the year to 42,000 tonnes.

* Euro zone businesses saw new orders increase in August for the first time since May 2024.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices inched higher yesterday, settling up by 0.26% at 255.5, supported by upbeat economic signals from China and optimism over potential U.S. interest rate cuts. A private survey showed China’s factory activity in August expanded at the fastest pace in five months, driven by rising new orders, boosting sentiment for industrial metals. However, upside momentum was capped amid concerns over U.S. tariffs, which weighed on factory activity across parts of Asia. On the supply-demand balance, the global primary aluminium market recorded a surplus in June, with production at 6.09 million tons outpacing consumption of 5.91 million tons, leaving a 183,100-ton excess. Still, in the first half of 2025, a marginal deficit of 36,700 tons was noted, highlighting mixed fundamentals. According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminium output in July rose 2.5% year-on-year to 6.37 million tons. On the supply front, disruptions have emerged, with Guinea cancelling mining licenses that feed Emirates Global Aluminium, while South32 announced the closure of its Mozal smelter in Mozambique, Africa’s second largest. In addition, Chinese production remains bound by its 45-million-ton annual cap, and European markets continue to face tightness due to Russian sanctions. Technically, aluminium is under fresh buying, with open interest gaining 0.88% to 4,011 while prices edged up by 0.65. Support is placed at 254, below which levels of 252.5 may be tested, while resistance is seen at 256.8, with a breakout potentially extending gains towards 258.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 252.5-258.1.

* Aluminium gains amid upbeat economic data from China, and optimism about U.S. interest rate cuts.

* However upside seen limited amid worries about U.S. tariffs, which helped to dampen factory activity in parts of Asia.

* The global primary aluminium market experienced a supply surplus in June.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled down by -2.21% at 12,230 as higher acreage expectations weighed on sentiment. Favourable monsoon conditions this season have supported timely sowing, with preliminary estimates indicating a likely 15–20% increase in turmeric acreage, as competing crops offer relatively lower profitability. For the 2024-25 season, turmeric cultivation has already reached 3.30 lakh hectares, about 10% higher than last year’s 3 lakh hectares. However, the downside remains somewhat limited as farmer-held stocks in Warangal are nearly exhausted, and no fresh arrivals have been reported in the last two days, tightening near-term supply. In spot markets, quality differentiation continues to play a key role. At Duggirala, fresh arrivals are drawing strong buyer interest, with new crops commanding a premium over older inventory due to superior quality. Market activity remains steady, with daily inflows of 1,000–1,200 bags (70 kg each), and nearly 50–55% of the new crop has already been traded. Harvesting is ongoing, and arrivals are expected to continue into June, ensuring robust trading activity. On the export front, India shipped 47,949.56 tonnes during April–June 2025, up 3.12% YoY. However, June exports dropped by 7.93% YoY and by a steep 28.21% MoM, reflecting demand volatility in overseas markets. Technically, the market is under long liquidation with open interest slipping -1.02% to 17,480. Immediate support is placed at 11,960, with further weakness likely toward 11,690 if selling pressure persists. On the upside, resistance is seen at 12,520, and a break above could lift prices toward 12,810.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 11690-12810.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* However downside seen limited as turmeric stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly depleted.

* Market participants are closely monitoring weather patterns and crop conditions.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13459 Rupees dropped by -1.54 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled down by -0.21% at 19,240, weighed by subdued domestic and export demand following the conclusion of the retail season. Traders highlighted that comfortable supplies and weak overseas buying interest have dampened sentiment, as the current export demand is being easily met from existing stockpiles. Farmers are still holding nearly 20 lakh bags of cumin, of which only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a sizeable carry-forward stock of around 16 lakh bags. Production prospects remain steady, with the current season expected to witness output of 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, but still sufficient to meet domestic needs. Globally, production is limited in key origins such as Turkey, Syria, and Afghanistan, but reduced export demand from India has prevented any significant price recovery. In China too, output estimates have been revised down to 70–80 thousand tonnes from earlier 1 lakh tonnes due to adverse weather. On the trade front, India’s jeera exports dropped sharply by 19.57% YoY during April–June 2025 to 59,247.76 tonnes. However, June shipments rose 10.26% YoY to 16,322.06 tonnes but fell steeply by 29.67% compared to May, reflecting inconsistent demand trends.  Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling -1.72% to 4,296. Immediate support is seen at 19,140, with further weakness possible toward 19,030. On the higher side, resistance is placed at 19,320, and a break above may lift prices toward 19,390.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19030-19390.

* Jeera prices dropped due to weak domestic and export demand post retail season.

* Only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags

* Total arrivals witnessed a marginal increase to 12,000 bags (55 kg each) as against 11,800 bags on the previous day.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19596.1 Rupees dropped by -0.34 percent.

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