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Gold

Gold settled up by 0.95% at 75,003, driven by expectations of less restrictive monetary policy and heightened geopolitical risks, which supported safe-haven demand. The Federal Reserve's significant rate cut has boosted the appeal of gold, and there are indications that another 50 basis point reduction could happen by year-end. Atlanta Fed President Bostic highlighted faster-than-expected progress in inflation control and labor market cooling, suggesting a potential normalization of monetary policy sooner than anticipated. Traders are now looking forward to the PCE report and further speeches from Fed officials for clues about the central bank’s next moves. In addition to monetary policy factors, rising tensions in the Middle East, including Israeli strikes on Lebanon, have increased gold's safe-haven appeal. However, gold demand in India remains subdued due to high prices near record levels, despite slight improvements. Indian dealers offered a discount of up to $17 an ounce, down from last week's $22 discount. Chinese dealers also widened discounts to $12-$14 over global spot prices, compared to last week's $8.6-$10. In Hong Kong, gold traded at a discount of $1 to a $0.6 premium, while in Japan, it was sold at a $1 discount amid weak demand India's gold demand in the June quarter fell 5% year-on-year, but it is expected to improve in the second half of 2024 due to a correction in local prices following a significant reduction in import duties. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping by -14.83%. Gold is currently supported at 74,550, with a break below potentially testing 74,100 levels. Resistance is seen at 75,250, and a move above could lead to prices testing 75,500.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 74100-75500.
* Gold gained as prospects of less restrictive monetary policy and elevated geopolitical risks magnified support for safe-haven assets.
* Fed’s Bostic noted that inflation progress and labor market cooling have occurred faster than expected
* Traders are now awaiting the PCE report and additional speeches from several Fed officials.


Silver
Silver surged by 3.54% to settle at 92,393, fueled by expectations of further U.S. rate cuts, stimulus measures from China, and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The U.S. Federal Reserve's significant 50 basis point rate cut, combined with comments from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee about more cuts over the next year, bolstered silver's appeal. Meanwhile, China’s central bank introduced its largest stimulus since the pandemic, aimed at revitalizing the economy. Geopolitical risks intensified as Israel launched strikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, further increasing demand for safe-haven assets like silver. Fed Chair Jerome Powell tempered expectations by stating the central bank is not rushing to ease policy and that half-percentage point cuts will not become the norm. Additionally, concerns that other major central banks may not ease as aggressively as the Fed put downward pressure on the dollar, indirectly supporting silver prices. India’s silver imports are set to nearly double this year due to rising demand from the solar panel and electronics sectors. Investors are also betting on higher returns from silver compared to gold, pushing imports to 4,554 metric tons in the first half of 2024, up sharply from 560 tons in the same period last year. This surge in imports, combined with depleted inventories from 2023, has led industrial buyers to stockpile the metal. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing by 3.82%. Silver is currently supported at 90,140, with a break below potentially testing 87,890. On the upside, resistance is seen at 93,695, and a move above this could push prices toward 95,000.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 87890-95000.
* Silver prices surged amid hopes of further U.S. rate cuts and China stimulus measures
* China's cenbank unveils most aggressive stimulus since pandemic
* Fed’s Goolsbee said he expects many more cuts over the next year.


Crudeoil
Crude oil prices rose by 1.44% to settle at 5983, driven by news of monetary stimulus from China and concerns about potential supply disruptions due to escalating conflict in the Middle East and another hurricane threatening U.S. offshore oil production. China's central bank announced its most significant stimulus measures since the COVID-19 pandemic to stimulate the economy and reach its growth targets. Meanwhile, U.S. oil producers began evacuating staff from Gulf of Mexico oil platforms as another hurricane threatened offshore oilfields, further supporting prices. On the demand front, the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its 2024 oil demand growth forecast downward by 70,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 900,000 bpd, citing a slowdown in Chinese demand and increased adoption of electric vehicles. U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 1.63 million barrels in the week ending September 13, exceeding market expectations. Additionally, crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, decreased by 1.979 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles showed minimal increases. China’s crude oil imports in August were down 7% year-on-year, reflecting weak refining margins and subdued fuel consumption. However, imports recovered somewhat from recent lows, reaching 49.10 million metric tons, up from July's 42.34 million tons. Despite this, China’s annual demand growth has slowed considerably since the pre-pandemic years. Technically, the crude oil market is under short covering, with open interest dropping by 7.18% to 13,113 contracts while prices increased by 85 rupees. Crude oil is now finding support at 5919, with a further downside test at 5855 possible. Resistance is expected at 6058, and a move above this level could push prices toward 6133.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5855-6133.
* Crude oil jumped on news of monetary stimulus from China and concerns in the Middle East could hit supply.
* US refineries are planning their lightest maintenance in three years, likely boosting oil demand in the coming months.
* A slowdown in Chinese demand as the main driver of weaker global demand growth.


Naturalgas
Natural gas prices fell by -1.51% to settle at 234.1, driven by forecasts of lower-than-expected demand over the next two weeks. The market was also impacted by forecasts that Tropical Storm Helene would miss the key producing regions in the western and central Gulf of Mexico as it strengthens into a hurricane. As a result, oil companies like Shell, which had paused production ahead of the storm, began restoring operations as the storm path shifted. LSEG data showed gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 102.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August. On a daily basis, output dropped to a four-month low of 99.6 bcfd. Gas flows to U.S. LNG export plants eased slightly to 12.8 bcfd from 12.9 bcfd in August. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that U.S. natural gas production would decline to 103.4 bcfd in 2024 from a record 103.8 bcfd in 2023, with demand rising to a record high of 89.9 bcfd. U.S. utilities added 58 billion cubic feet of gas to storage, pushing total stockpiles to 3,445 Bcf, which is 194 Bcf higher than last year and 274 Bcf above the five-year average. Technically, the market is seeing fresh selling, with open interest rising by 1.33%. Natural gas prices are currently supported at 230.6, with a potential test of 227 if this level breaks. On the upside, resistance is expected at 240.2, and a move above could push prices toward 246.2, marking a key short-term technical range.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 227-246.2.
* Natural gas slid on forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
* Some firms, like Shell, started restoring oil and gas production as the forecasted storm movements shifted away.
* Gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to an average of 102.0 (bcfd) so far in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August.


Copper
Copper prices surged by 1.91% to settle at 836.45, driven by China's announcement of economic easing measures to support growth. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) revealed plans to cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points before the end of the year, along with reductions in key lending rates. These steps follow the U.S. Federal Reserve’s earlier 50 basis point rate cut, boosting the global economic outlook and improving copper's demand prospects. Additionally, copper inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses dropped by 11.1%, indicating tightening supply. In August, China's refined copper exports fell 56% month-on-month but remained 50% higher than in August 2023. Meanwhile, refined copper production in China increased by 0.9% year-on-year, reaching 1.12 million metric tons. Despite these gains, China's unwrought copper imports declined to a 16-month low, with August shipments totaling 415,000 metric tons, a 12.3% drop from the previous year. However, copper concentrate imports remained strong, up 3.2% year-on-year for the first eight months of 2024. Global copper market dynamics showed a surplus of 95,000 metric tons in June, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), reflecting a growing supply amid weaker demand. Chile's state miner Codelco also reported a 10.7% decline in July copper production. Technically, the market is seeing fresh buying with open interest rising by 8.94%. Copper prices are currently supported at 829.6, with a break below potentially testing 822.7. On the upside, resistance is seen at 840.3, and a move above this level could push prices toward 844.1, marking a key technical range for traders.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 822.7-844.1.
* Copper rallied after China unveiled a slate of easing measures to support the economy.
* PBOC Gongsheng said in a rare briefing that the PBOC will cut the RRR by 50 basis points before the year ends.
* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 11.1% from last Friday.


Zinc
Zinc prices surged by 3.23% to settle at 275, driven by China’s wide-ranging stimulus measures aimed at reviving its struggling economy. The People’s Bank of China announced its largest stimulus since the pandemic, boosting sentiment and supporting metal prices. In contrast, inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange-monitored warehouses increased by 4.8%, reflecting higher arrivals of imported zinc ingots and post-holiday restocking in Shanghai, while Guangdong’s inventory rose significantly due to weak downstream demand. China's refined zinc imports for August 2024 reached 26,500 metric tons, up 44.24% month-on-month, but down 9.01% year-on-year. Cumulative refined zinc imports from January to August totaled 267,000 metric tons, a 30.72% increase year-on-year, while exports remained minimal, resulting in net imports of 24,600 metric tons. On the supply side, Swedish miner Boliden delayed its Odda zinc smelter expansion to 2025, potentially tightening future supplies. In the global market, the zinc surplus shrank to 14,000 metric tons in July from 36,400 tons in June, with a cumulative surplus of 254,000 tons in 2024, compared to 466,000 tons during the same period last year. China's refined zinc production declined by 0.68% in August due to the impact of heavy rains and power rationing in key smelting regions, although some smelters resumed operations after maintenance, mitigating the overall decline. Technically, the zinc market is under fresh buying pressure, with open interest rising by 39.44% to settle at 2,694 contracts as prices gained 8.6 rupees. Support is seen at 269.9, with potential for further downside to 264.8, while resistance is likely at 277.7, with a break above possibly testing 280.4.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 264.8-280.4.
* Zinc gains after China unleashed wide-ranging stimulus measures to boost its flagging economy.
* Refined zinc imports in August 2024 were 26,500 mt, up 8,200 mt or 44.24% MoM
* China unexpectedly leaving benchmark lending rates unchanged at the monthly fixing.


Aluminium
Aluminium prices surged by 2.46% to settle at 235.45, driven by optimism over further stimulus measures from China following a significant U.S. interest rate cut. The global primary aluminium output for August increased by 1.2% year-on-year to 6.179 million tons, with China’s production estimated at 3.69 million tons, according to data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). Despite China keeping its benchmark lending rates unchanged, a rate cut is expected as part of a broader policy package aimed at stimulating the economy. In July, global aluminium production reached 5.937 million tons, while consumption was 5.809 million tons, leading to a supply surplus of 127,900 tons. Year-to-date, the surplus has grown to 930,000 tons, reflecting a steady rise in output. Additionally, aluminium stocks at Japan’s three major ports increased by 9.2% in August, reaching 327,300 metric tons. China’s aluminium output for August hit a 21-year high of 3.73 million tons, up 2.5% year-on-year, as strong prices and steady profitability kept smelters operating at full capacity. Smelters in the Yunnan province, in particular, benefited from ample hydropower supply, supporting the increased production. Global daily production for July also increased, with the IAI reporting a rise to 199,800 tons from 199,400 tons in June. Technically, the market is experiencing fresh buying, with open interest rising by 7.95%. Aluminium prices are currently supported at 232.1, with a potential test of 228.8 if support levels break. On the upside, resistance is seen at 237.4, and a move above this could push prices towards 239.4, providing key levels for traders to monitor.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 228.8-239.4.
* Aluminium gains on optimism about further stimulus from China following a jumbo U.S. interest rate cut.
* China exported 143,268 tons of alumina last month, down 1.9% from a year earlier.
* China's Aug aluminium imports up 1.9% y/y.


Cottoncandy
Cottoncandy prices saw a slight increase of 0.02%, settling at 58,750, driven by a revised cotton production forecast for India. The USDA lowered India’s cotton production forecast for the 2024-25 season to 30.72 million bales, down due to excessive rains and pest issues, while ending stocks were reduced to 12.38 million bales. Acreage under cotton cultivation is also down by 9% this Kharif season, with the total area reaching 110.49 lakh hectares compared to 121.24 lakh hectares last year. Despite this, the upside in prices was capped as raw cotton arrivals began in Punjab mandis, signaling the harvest season’s commencement. Cotton exports for the 2023-24 crop year are projected to rise by 80% to 28 lakh bales, primarily driven by increased demand from consuming nations like Bangladesh and Vietnam. This is a significant rise from the 15.50 lakh bales exported in the previous year. On the other hand, imports have also risen to 16.40 lakh bales, compared to 12.50 lakh bales last year. Closing stocks by the end of September 2024 are expected to fall to 23.32 lakh bales, down from 28.90 lakh bales the previous year. Domestic cotton consumption is estimated at 317 lakh bales for the year. Globally, the U.S. cotton production forecast for 2024/25 was lowered to 14.5 million bales, a reduction of 600,000 bales due to lower yields. The global cotton production outlook also saw a decrease of 1.2 million bales, primarily due to smaller crops in India, Pakistan, and the U.S. Technically, the market is experiencing fresh buying with a 28.21% increase in open interest. Cottoncandy is supported at 58,340, with a potential test of 57,920 if prices fall. Resistance is seen at 59,040, with a move above potentially leading to 59,320.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 57920-59320.
* Cotton gains as USDA has lowered India's cotton production forecast for the 2024-25 to 30.72 million bales
* Cotton exports for the 2023-24 crop year or season ending September are estimated at about 80 per cent at 28 lakh bales
* The U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2024/25 shows lower production, exports, and ending stocks compared to last month.
* In the global 2024/25 cotton balance sheet, beginning stocks, production and consumption are increased.


Turmeric
Turmeric prices increased by 1.25% to settle at 14,530 due to concerns over crop damage caused by heavy rains in Nanded and Hingoli areas, with losses now expected to be higher than initially estimated. Total arrivals dropped to 14,915 bags, down from the previous session's 16,975 bags, with a sharp reduction in Sangli arrivals contributing to the decline. Sangli reported only 890 bags compared to 11,000 bags in the previous session. With five months remaining until harvest, the combination of reduced supply and unfavorable weather is expected to drive prices higher. However, upside potential remains limited due to news of increased turmeric sowing. In India, sowing in the Erode region has reportedly doubled compared to last year, while in Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh, sowing is up 30-35%. Nationwide, turmeric sowing is projected to increase from 3.25 lakh hectares last year to 3.75-4 lakh hectares this year. Despite the increased sowing, lower production estimates for the 2024 crop, combined with no outstanding stock, suggest tight availability in 2025. Turmeric exports for April-June 2024 fell by 19.52% compared to the same period in 2023, while imports surged by 485.40% in the same period, reflecting fluctuating supply-demand dynamics. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying with open interest rising by 1.59% to settle at 13,695 contracts as prices increased by 180 rupees. Support is seen at 14,318, with further downside testing possible at 14,106, while resistance is expected at 14,644, and a move above could push prices toward 14,758.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14106-14758.
* Turmeric gains amid reports of crop damage due to heavy rains in Nanded and Hingoli areas.
* Total arrivals were reported at 14,915 bags, lower than the previous session's 16,975 bags.
* Turmeric sowing on the Erode line is reported to be double as compared to last year
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14605.35 Rupees dropped by -0.32 percent.


Jeera
Jeera prices increased by 0.52% to settle at 26,810, supported by strong domestic and export demand, along with tight global supplies. Farmers are holding back their stocks, anticipating better prices, which has further bolstered the market. However, the upside is limited by expectations of higher production. Sowing in Gujarat has increased by 104%, while in Rajasthan, it has risen by 16%. Jeera production is expected to be 30% higher this season, reaching 8.5-9 lakh tonnes, driven by a significant rise in cultivation area. Globally, jeera production is also on the rise, with China’s output surging to over 55-60 thousand tons, nearly double its previous production. Other producing nations like Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan have also seen increased production due to high prices last season. As these new supplies enter the market, cumin prices are likely to face downward pressure. In terms of exports, jeera exports for April-June 2024 rose by 46.56% compared to the same period in 2023, reflecting strong international demand. However, exports in June 2024 saw a 29.12% drop compared to May, indicating some volatility in the market. Despite this, exports are expected to remain robust in the coming months. Technically, the market is experiencing short covering, with open interest dropping by 5.38% to settle at 2,478 contracts as prices increased by 140 rupees. Jeera is finding support at 26,560, with potential testing at 26,310 if breached. Resistance is likely at 27,000, and a move above could see prices testing 27,190.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 26310-27190.
*  Jeera gains amid robust domestic and export demand besides tight global supplies.
* Farmers holding back their stocks on expectation of better prices too bolstered prices.
* Turkey anticipates producing 12-15 thousand tons, while Afghanistan's output could double.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 26318.7 Rupees dropped by -0.02 percent.

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