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We attended JLR’s annual analyst meet. KTAs:

1) JLR gave guidance for FY27, of GBP26bn revenue (13.5% YoY growth on a low base of FY26 that was hit by supply issues; lower than FY25 level), 4% EBITM (FY25/26: 0.7/8.5%), and <10% EBITDAM (FY25: 14.3%; on multiple cost headwinds—US tariffs, inability to pass on luxury tax in China, higher warranty costs, forex pressure); JLR targets FCF breakeven in FY27 (FY26: -GBP2.2bn).

2) Demand outlook across geographies is stable (NA and UK healthy, China stabilizing, core demand strong in ME).

3) JLR is doubling down on its growth strategy for NA—its most promising market (strong brand presence, resilient demand despite the macro volatility); JLR will see NA-specific product enhancements, and is evaluating product and technology partnerships.

4) Range Rover, Defender, and Discovery to follow a multi-powertrain pathway (MHEV/HEV/PHEV/BEV), given the different pace of EV adoption across geographies; Jaguar to be a pure EV brand.

5) JLR targets reduction in cash breakeven to 300kpa units, while delivering GBP1.7bn savings via enterprise missions over the next 2Y (also focusing on reducing VME + warranty costs). We cut JLR’s FY27E/FY28E volume by 11/8%, and EBITM by 190/95bps to 4%/5.7% due to cost headwinds. We accordingly cut our SoTP-based TP by 11.4% to Rs390 (JLR accounts for 19% of this) from Rs440. We retain ADD, given a robust India PV outlook.

Guides to double-digit revenue growth, though EBITM guidance subdued

JLR guides in FY27 revenue of ~GBP26bn (implies a 13.5% YoY growth) and EBITM of ~4%; the management, however, guided to <10% EBITDAM (14.3% in FY25) due to multiple cost headwinds in the form of continued tariff pressure in US (10%/15%; limited pricing actions as most players in NA have not taken price hikes), inability to pass on luxury tax in China (due to a competitive landscape), higher warranty costs, forex pressure (depreciation of US$ against GBP); JLR also targets FCF breakeven in FY27 vs -GBP2.2bn in FY26, amid continued investments and capex spends.

Doubling down on the North America growth story

North America (NA) represents the most compelling growth opportunity, with resilient luxury demand despite macro volatility (44% of NA demand sits above US$50k/unit, of which 58% is SUV, playing directly to JLR's strengths). Backed by strong brand appeal, an established consumer base, high repurchase rates, and robust product momentum, JLR is doubling down on NA at an enterprise level. This includes optimizing the product portfolio to meet regional requirements without compromising its global appeal, debottlenecking supply capacity to ensure unconstrained availability, and introducing NAspecific product enhancements to sharpen competitiveness. Strategic partnerships will further accelerate growth and address whitespaces, most notably the recent collaboration with Stellantis for delivering new Defender products designed for the NA market.

Strong India PV momentum to offer cushioning

During the Q4 earnings call, TMPV guided to 10% FY27 domestic PV industry growth aided by strong underlying demand sentiment. TMPV aims to outpace the industry led by a healthy orderbook (capacity expansion underway to meet this), leaner channel inventory (20 days; 4-8 weeks of wait time), new product launches (2 new nameplates; 4 facelifts each in ICEs, EVs). While TMPV indicated persistent commodity pressure with margin hit of 3.5-4% in Q1FY27, it took 0.5%/1.5% price hikes in Apr/Jul-26. This margin pressure to be partly offset by cost reduction, operating leverage, better product-mix.

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