Add Sobha Ltd for the Target Rs. 1,840 by Choice Institutional Equities
Key Conference Call Highlights
Macro Environment:
* Inquiries remain stable across SOBHA’s projects, with demand momentum holding positive despite the Middle East crisis/AI concerns
* Demand remains strong in the sub-INR 30 Mn segment, with stable pricing and steady momentum across NCR and Bengaluru
* There is a significant increase in price of raw materials (event-led). Effect on margin is to be seen in the next 1 year. Price increases so as to counter the effect will depend on the demand-supply dynamics
* The management is seeing an increase in inquiries in the Kerala market in the backdrop of the uncertainty in Middle East
Operations:
* FY26 sales were led by Bangalore (INR 45 Bn, 55%), followed by NCR (INR 24.55 Bn, (30%). Kerala contributed INR 8.08 Bn (10%) and other cities INR 3.96 Bn (5%)
* Launched projects of 6.04 msf in FY26. More launches were delayed due to internal and external factors during Q4FY26
* SOBHA marked its entry into Greater Noida with Sobha Rivana (~2.57 msf) achieving ~25% pre-sales (INR 5 Bn) within 2 weeks of its launch. Initial sales were not very impressive as they were impacted by late-quarter launch timing. The Management expects steady momentum and potential price hike over time
* For its larger projects, the management is focusing on phased launches in order to optimize pricing and sustain absorption for large developments
* Commercial strategy is back-ended, with limited exposure in Phase 1 of township projects and more meaningful rental/commercial development planned in subsequent phases
Launches:
* Project Hoskute of 5.3 msf and GVD of INR 70 Bn to be launched in Q1FY27
* Sobha Crescent Phase 1 in Gurgaon, which was launched in April ’26, has seen a good response (50% or units worth INR 11 Bn sold till date)
* Plan to launch a couple of projects in Kerala in Q2FY27 ? Tentative FY27E launch schedule includes one project in Pune and Chennai each
Guidance:
* The management is guiding for 30% growth in pre-sales in FY27E, broadly in line with FY26 trajectory
* For FY27E, sales are expected to be roughly 45–50% from sustenance and 50-55% from new launches
* Plan to launch projects of 20.67 msf and 10 msf in FY27Ein the next 6–8 quarters ? Margin expected to improve from Q2/Q3 FY27 as key projects near completion and get recognised
* Plan to do business development of 10 msf by investing ~INR 11 Bn every year with visibility for the next 2 years
* Business development is focussed on Mumbai (MMR) and Hyderabad with a calibrated scale-up approach. SOBHA is adopting a cautious Mumbai strategy by starting with smaller and redevelopment projects as they want to build execution capability before scaling up
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