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GCPL is likely to post 5% organic consol. revenue growth with high single-digit volume growth. We expect GCPL’s domestic business to log a mid-single-digit organic growth (mostly driven by volume), while its Raymond portfolio (~9% domestic sales contribution) would aid in 17% reported growth. We reckon its international business would see a 10% drop, given Rs700mn worth business restructuring in the Africa cluster; organic growth would clock in a mid-single digit. Backed by better GM, we see EBITDA margin expansion of 115bps (to 21.2%), leading to 11% EBITDA growth, though higher tax would slow down earnings growth to ~6%. As we roll over from Dec-24E to Mar-25E, our TP increases to Rs1,350/sh from Rs1,325/sh, based on 50x P/E (20% premium to its last 5YF avg P/E, given improved execution). We maintain ADD.

Consolidated revenue grew in a mid-single digit, UVG at a high single digit GCPL’s consolidated revenue is likely to see 5% growth, with ~17% growth in the domestic and 10% decline in the international businesses. We believe organic growth would remain in a mid-single digit, with 6% growth in the India and 5% growth in the international businesses. In India, Home care is likely to see a mid-single digit growth, aided by placement of new molecule-based incense sticks, despite muted seasonality. Personal care reported a healthy 26% growth, aided by 9% domestic sales contribution from the Raymond portfolio; adjusted organic growth would come in at ~5% YoY. Domestic underlying volume growth (UVG) would maintain at double digits. In the international business, we see Indonesia revenue growing 12%, with 13% constant currency growth. The Africa cluster would see 15% revenue decline, as the Nira devaluation maintains its influence and with the East Africa reorganization having a negative impact of Rs700mn on the topline. The organic Africa business is likely to see double-digit constant currency growth, with a high single-digit volume growth.

Better margin to aid EBITDA growth, but higher taxes to slow down earnings We see gross margin (GM) expansion remaining healthy at ~370bps YoY, to 56.6%. Higher ATL thrust is likely to keep A&P spends at ~Rs3bn, up 32% YoY and 175bps YoY as a % of sales, to 8.8%. EBITDA margin expansion would be limited at ~115bps YoY, to 21.2%. Backed by margin expansion, EBITDA growth would register at ~11% YoY; this along with higher other income will lead to 13% PBT growth. However, given the higher tax rate, earnings growth is anticipated to be slower, at ~6%. Q4FY24 may see an impairment charge on account of the ongoing impairment testing in the Africa cluster.

Better execution reflects in valuation; we maintain ADD, on limited upside GCPL’s exceptional management prowess of getting the basics right and its appetite for category disruptions is its forte. We now see actions falling into place, which will help GCPL outshine, though macro/seasonality risks remain. As we roll over our estimates from Dec-25 to Mar-26, our new TP stands at Rs1,350, based on 50x P/E; maintain ADD.

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