Add Bajaj Auto Ltd for the Target Rs. 11,250 by Choice Institutional Equity
Key Conference Call Highlights
Industry update & Performance
* Q4FY26 financial performance remained strong with revenue crossing ~INR 160 Bn, EBITDA at ~INR 33.2 Bn and EBITDA margin sustained at ~20.8%; PAT grew ~34% YoY, supported by strong operating leverage and favourable product mix
* Broad-based growth continued across domestic 2Ws, 3Ws and exports, with Q4FY26 volumes growing ~24% YoY, translating into revenue growth of ~32% YoY and EBITDA growth of ~36% YoY
* Domestic motorcycle industry growth remained skewed towards 125cc+ and 150cc+ categories, with Pulsar portfolio interventions and 10+ launches supporting sequential market share gains
* Premium motorcycle portfolio comprising KTM and Triumph delivered record domestic sales of ~43k units in Q4FY26, up ~43% YoY, driven by healthy demand and rapid network expansion
* 3W business maintained strong momentum with Q4FY26 volumes growing ~28% YoY across both ICE and EV segments
* BJAUT retained leadership in electric three-wheelers with market share of ~36.9% during Q4FY26.
* Demand outlook for domestic motorcycles remains moderately positive, though near-term growth is expected to soften to ~7–9% due to inflationary pressure, price hikes and weaker rural sentiment
* Temporary supply-side constraints including manpower shortage, LPG-related issues and logistics disruptions impacted volumes by ~10–15% during the quarter
Update on EVs and exports:
* Export volumes remained robust at ~600k+ units for the second consecutive quarter, registering ~25% YoY growth led by strong traction in Latin America and Asian markets
* The management continues to target an export run-rate of ~220k+ units per month, supported by strong positioning across key overseas geographies
* Chetak EV volumes crossed ~100k units in Q4FY26 with market share improving to ~23%, while distribution network expanded to ~850+ cities
* Combined EV portfolio across 2Ws and 3Ws achieved double-digit EBITDA margin, contributing ~20%+ to domestic revenues
* Chetak EV business approached breakeven level during the quarter, supported by scale benefits and improving operational efficiencies
* PLI incentives for FY26 estimated at ~INR 9 Bn, supported by rapid EV portfolio scale-up and localisation initiatives
Capacity, investments and balance sheet:
* FY26 capex stood at ~INR 5 Bn, equally split between ICE and EV businesses, reflecting a balanced investment strategy across technologies
* Additional investments of ~INR 23 Bn deployed towards the financing subsidiary and KTM-related initiatives to strengthen ecosystem capabilities and future growth avenues
* The company announced 100% payout of FY26 profits, including dividend of ~INR 150/share and buyback worth ~INR 563.3 Bn
* Balance sheet remained robust with cash surplus of ~INR 180 Bn+ and free cash flow generation exceeding ~INR 80 Bn, providing strong financial flexibility for future investments
* Other highlights:
* Q4FY26 witnessed modest net cost inflation impact of ~40 bps, partly offset through favourable currency movement with realisation at ~INR 90.6/USD and richer product mix
* Management expects commodity inflation pressure of ~3.5–4.0% of revenue in Q1FY27E, with pricing actions offsetting nearly ~40% of the impact so far
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SEBI Registration no.: INZ 000160131
