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2026-06-09 11:23:09 am | Source: choiceInstitutionalEquities
Add Bajaj Auto Ltd for the Target Rs. 11,250 by Choice Institutional Equity
Add Bajaj Auto Ltd for the Target Rs. 11,250 by Choice Institutional Equity

Key Conference Call Highlights

Industry update & Performance

* Q4FY26 financial performance remained strong with revenue crossing ~INR 160 Bn, EBITDA at ~INR 33.2 Bn and EBITDA margin sustained at ~20.8%; PAT grew ~34% YoY, supported by strong operating leverage and favourable product mix

* Broad-based growth continued across domestic 2Ws, 3Ws and exports, with Q4FY26 volumes growing ~24% YoY, translating into revenue growth of ~32% YoY and EBITDA growth of ~36% YoY

* Domestic motorcycle industry growth remained skewed towards 125cc+ and 150cc+ categories, with Pulsar portfolio interventions and 10+ launches supporting sequential market share gains

* Premium motorcycle portfolio comprising KTM and Triumph delivered record domestic sales of ~43k units in Q4FY26, up ~43% YoY, driven by healthy demand and rapid network expansion

* 3W business maintained strong momentum with Q4FY26 volumes growing ~28% YoY across both ICE and EV segments

* BJAUT retained leadership in electric three-wheelers with market share of ~36.9% during Q4FY26.

* Demand outlook for domestic motorcycles remains moderately positive, though near-term growth is expected to soften to ~7–9% due to inflationary pressure, price hikes and weaker rural sentiment

* Temporary supply-side constraints including manpower shortage, LPG-related issues and logistics disruptions impacted volumes by ~10–15% during the quarter

Update on EVs and exports:

* Export volumes remained robust at ~600k+ units for the second consecutive quarter, registering ~25% YoY growth led by strong traction in Latin America and Asian markets

* The management continues to target an export run-rate of ~220k+ units per month, supported by strong positioning across key overseas geographies

* Chetak EV volumes crossed ~100k units in Q4FY26 with market share improving to ~23%, while distribution network expanded to ~850+ cities

* Combined EV portfolio across 2Ws and 3Ws achieved double-digit EBITDA margin, contributing ~20%+ to domestic revenues

* Chetak EV business approached breakeven level during the quarter, supported by scale benefits and improving operational efficiencies

* PLI incentives for FY26 estimated at ~INR 9 Bn, supported by rapid EV portfolio scale-up and localisation initiatives

Capacity, investments and balance sheet:

* FY26 capex stood at ~INR 5 Bn, equally split between ICE and EV businesses, reflecting a balanced investment strategy across technologies

* Additional investments of ~INR 23 Bn deployed towards the financing subsidiary and KTM-related initiatives to strengthen ecosystem capabilities and future growth avenues

* The company announced 100% payout of FY26 profits, including dividend of ~INR 150/share and buyback worth ~INR 563.3 Bn

* Balance sheet remained robust with cash surplus of ~INR 180 Bn+ and free cash flow generation exceeding ~INR 80 Bn, providing strong financial flexibility for future investments

* Other highlights:

* Q4FY26 witnessed modest net cost inflation impact of ~40 bps, partly offset through favourable currency movement with realisation at ~INR 90.6/USD and richer product mix

* Management expects commodity inflation pressure of ~3.5–4.0% of revenue in Q1FY27E, with pricing actions offsetting nearly ~40% of the impact so far

 

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