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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.07% at 57215 as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s latest remarks sounded less hawkish than markets anticipated. He said that more rate hikes will likely be needed and that the terminal rate could peak higher if the jobs market remains strong, but maintained that disinflation has begun. Latest data showed that the US economy added 517K jobs in January, the most since July and well above the market expectations of 185K. Investors now look ahead to a slew of US economic data and more Fed commentary on Wednesday for further guidance. Gold is highly sensitive to the rates outlook as higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and vice versa. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari was among the latest officials to warn that the US central bank will likely have to hike rates to at least 5.4% to rein on inflation, with the latest jobs report for January potting to a still very tight labor market. Physical gold demand in India ticked up last week, as jewellers resumed purchases after staying away for a couple of weeks hoping for an import duty cut in the government budget amid the wedding season. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.34% to settle at 16415 while prices are down -42 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 57006 and below same could see a test of 56797 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 57404, a move above could see prices testing 57593.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 56797-57593.
* Gold steadied as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s latest remarks sounded less hawkish than markets anticipated.
* Fed’s Kashkari was among the latest officials to warn that the US central bank will likely have to hike rates to at least 5.4% to rein on inflation
* Commerzbank sees gold price of $1,850/oz by mid-year and of $1,950/oz by year’s end


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.15% at 67633 boosted by a weaker dollar and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, while markets awaited more economic data for guidance on future rate hikes. Investors' focus now turns to the U.S. Labor Department's weekly jobless claims report on Friday ahead of the January inflation numbers next week. At the same, recession concerns pressured prices further, as investors worried about low demand for the metal as an industrial input for goods with high electricity conduction needs, which was reflected in its sharp underperformance to gold in January. Still, projections of weak supply limited the fall, as COMEX inventories remained under pressure and LBMA stockpiles plunged amid outflows to India. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the U.S. central bank has more work to do when it comes to taming inflation. Chinese inflation data for January due later this week may also shed more light on a potential economic recovery after the country relaxed most anti-COVID restrictions. ECB's Joachim Nagel joined a chorus of policymakers calling for even more tightening in the spring to bring inflation back to the 2% target, while board member Isabel Schnabel also said that the rate hikes delivered by the ECB so far were having little impact on inflation. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.2% to settle at 14345 while prices are up 104 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67267 and below same could see a test of 66901 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67945, a move above could see prices testing 68257.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 66901-68257.
* Silver gains boosted by a weaker dollar and comments from Fed Chair Powell, while markets awaited more economic data for guidance on future rate hikes.
* The dollar index eased after Powell avoided hardening his tone on inflation despite a resilient labour market.
* Investors' focus now turns to the U.S. Labor Department's weekly jobless claims report on Friday ahead of the January inflation numbers next week.


Crude oil

"Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.71% at 6472 as investor concern eased about U.S. interest rate hikes and an industry report pointed to a drop in U.S. crude inventories. Comments from U.S. Federal
Reserve Chair Jerome Powell were seen as less hawkish than feared, boosting risk appetite and weighing on the dollar. Stocks of crude oil in the United States dropped by 2.184 million barrels in the week ended February 3rd, 2023, following a 6.330 million barrels rise in the previous week, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed. It was the first decline in crude oil inventories since the week ended December 23rd, 2022, compared with market expectations of a 2.15 million barrels increase. Russia's daily crude oil production so far this month has been in line with January's output of between 9.8 million barrels per day (bpd) and 9.9 million bpd, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Novak also told reporters that Moscow would come up with counter-measures by the start of March to the European Union's embargo on Russian oil products introduced last week. He said earlier that European Union moves to add what he called ""exemptions"" to its price cap on oil products showed that Russian oil was still in demand. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.09% to settle at 6237 while prices are up 109 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6409 and below same could see a test of 6345 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6510, a move above could see prices testing 6547."
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6345-6547.
* Crude oil rose as investor concern eased about U.S. interest rate hikes and an industry report pointed to a drop in U.S. crude inventories.
* API said to report crude stocks fall about 2.2 million barrels
* Iranian official sees OPEC+ sticking to policy at next meeting


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -4.86% at 201.7 on a slow rise in output as warmer weather thaws frozen oil and gas wells, liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports decline and on forecasts for mostly mild weather to keep heating demand low through late February. That price decline came despite a growing belief in the market that Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas would start pulling in more gas in coming weeks to produce LNG for export. Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas was on track to start receiving small amounts of natural gas from pipelines on Wednesday after receiving no gas on Tuesday, Refinitiv Eikon data showed. Freeport was on track to pull in about 37 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) of pipeline gas on Wednesday. The plant pulled in an average of 34 mmcfd from Jan. 26, when federal regulators approved the company's plan to start cooling some pipes, through Monday. On a daily basis, gas production hit a two-week high of 97.9 bcfd on Tuesday, up from a five-week low of 93.9 bcfd last week when extreme cold cut output by freezing oil and gas wells – known as freeze-offs – in several states, including Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Pennsylvania. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 10.59% to settle at 40764 while prices are down -10.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 194 and below same could see a test of 186.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 215.1, a move above could see prices testing 228.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 186.3-228.5.
* Natural gas dropped on a slow rise in output as warmer weather thaws frozen oil and gas wells
* Pressure also seen as LNG exports decline and on forecasts for mostly mild weather to keep heating demand low through late February.
* Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas was on track to start receiving small amounts of natural gas from pipelines


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.52% at 771.7 after reports Glencore's Antapaccay copper mine in Peru has resumed normal operations after closing for 11 days due to attacks by protesters in the South American nation. Pressure also seen on demand concerns and a firmer dollar more than offset supply disruptions. Despite subdued imports, the latest data pointed to a bigger-than-usual inventory build-up in China over the Lunar New Year holiday. Copper inventories in SHFE warehouses jumped by 61.8% since January 20 to 226,509 tonnes on February 3. On top of that, the dollar index rose to a nearly four-week high on expectations of prolonged hawkish monetary policy by the Fed. On the supply side, the Las Bambas mine in Peru officially halted production on February 1. The copper mine accounts for 2% of the metal worldwide and has been operating at a reduced rate since December 7, after Congress removed and arrested President Castillo. In corporate headlines, Europe's largest copper producer Aurubis reported an almost 24% loss in quarterly earnings because of high energy prices and inflation but maintained upbeat estimates for its full-year profits. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.2% to settle at 3972 while prices are down -4.05 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 766.6 and below same could see a test of 761.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 778.4, a move above could see prices testing 785.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 761.5-785.1.
* Copper dropped after reports Glencore copper mine in Peru has reopened with increased security
* Pressure also seen on demand concerns and a firmer dollar more than offset supply disruptions.
* Copper inventories in SHFE warehouses jumped by 61.8% since January 20 to 226,509 tonnes on February 3.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -2.06% at 278.15 as investors reassessed their expectations of the speed and scale of any Chinese demand recovery after the country removed its strict COVID-19 restrictions. Glencore's zinc production in 2022 was 938,500 mt, down 16% from 1.12 million mt in 2021. The global zinc market deficit climbed to 119,500 tonnes in November from a revised deficit of 39,400 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 72,400 tonnes in October. During the first 11 months of 2022, ILZSG data showed a deficit of 228,000 tonnes versus a deficit of 163,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. China's foreign exchange reserves rose to USD 3.184 trillion at the end of January 2023, up from USD 3.128 trillion in the previous month and above market expectations of USD 3.152 trillion. The country's foreign exchange reserves were the largest since March last year as the dollar fell against other major currencies, amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will reduce the pace of policy tightening. Refined zinc output stood at 511,200 mt in January, down 14,600 mt or 2.77% MoM, and down 6,400 mt or 1.23% YoY. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -10.94% to settle at 2125 while prices are down -5.85 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 275 and below same could see a test of 271.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 282.8, a move above could see prices testing 287.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 271.8-287.4.
* Zinc dropped as investors reassessed their expectations of the speed and scale of any Chinese demand recovery.
* Refined zinc output stood at 511,200 mt in January, down 14,600 mt or 2.77% MoM, and down 6,400 mt or 1.23% YoY.
* China's foreign exchange reserves rose to USD 3.184 trillion at the end of January 2023, up from USD 3.128 trillion in the previous month


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.44% at 218.35 as fears of a global economic slowdown and rising output from China prompted investors to unwind some long positions. China's annual aluminum production in 2022 increased by 4.5% from a year earlier to a record high of 40.21 million tonnes thanks to newly launched capacity and softened power supply constraints. Still, fundamentals in the aluminum complex continued to be supported by prospects of more robust demand and historically low global inventories. China has taken significant steps to boost its economy and end the strict coronavirus-induced regime, lifting the outlook for metal demand and subduing some global recession concerns. On top of that, last year's output cuts at key European smelters, including Alcoa's San Ciprian smelter and Hydro's plant in Slovakia, offered prices a solid floor. The United States is preparing to impose a 200% tariff on Russian-made aluminum as soon as this week, as Washington looks to increase pressure on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. is also targeting the Russian metal as Moscow has been dumping aluminum on the U.S. market and harming American companies, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.04% to settle at 3452 while prices are down -3.2 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 216.6 and below same could see a test of 214.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 221.4, a move above could see prices testing 224.3.
Trading Ideas:                                                                                                         
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 214.7-224.3.
* Aluminum dropped as fears of a global economic slowdown and rising output from China prompted investors to unwind some long positions
* China's annual aluminum production in 2022 increased by 4.5% from a year earlier to a record high of 40.21 million tonnes
* U.S. plans 200% tariff on Russian aluminum
                               

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.35% at 1010.8 on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 18.10 percent at 1,485.25 tonnes as compared to 1,813.38 tonnes exported during Apr- 2022 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 141.82 tonnes in October 2022 showing a rise of 66.56%. In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 249.26 tonnes in November 2021 showing a drop of 5.23%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -5.3 Rupees to end at 1167.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.78% to settle at 892 while prices are up 3.5 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1006.1 and below same could see a test of 1001.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1014.7, a move above could see prices testing 1018.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1001.5-1018.7.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -5.3 Rupees to end at 1167.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices gained on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 18.10 percent at 1,485.25 tonnes
* In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 249.26 tonnes in November 2021


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -2.69% at 7080 in view of inferior quality of arrivals and fears of a higher crop. Prices are also lower as inventories with users and stockists are high. The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop. Yield is high in some areas and low in some areas, though Actually, we are wondering what the actual production could be in Maharashtra since the area under the crop has gone up rapidly this year. Turmeric exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has rose by 9.90 percent at 1,11,968.51 tonnes as compared to 1,01,882.03 tonnes exported during Apr-Nov 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 12,398.63 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 11,178.11 tonnes in October 2022 showing a rise of 10.92%. In the month of November 2022 around 12,398.63 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,255.64tonnes in November 2021 showing a rise of 1.17%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7149.85 Rupees dropped -83.1 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.84% to settle at 13805 while prices are down -196 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6958 and below same could see a test of 6836 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7246, a move above could see prices testing 7412.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6836-7412.
* Turmeric dropped in view of inferior quality of arrivals and fears of a higher crop.
* Prices are also lower as inventories with users and stockists are high.
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7149.85 Rupees dropped -83.1 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.44% at 32615 on profit booking after prices gained on amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties. Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected. Sowing In Gujarat, dropped by nearly -8% with 274,995.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 300,401.00 hectares. Prices gained to all time high amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. Jeera exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 17.40 percent at 133,250.24 tonnes as compared to 161,317.94 tonnes exported during Apr-Nov 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 11,235.11 tonnes jeera was exported as against 12,427.86 tonnes in October 2022 showing a drop of 9.60%. In the month of November 2022 around 11,235.11 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 10,838.83 tonnes in November 2021 showing a rise of 3.66%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -176.05 Rupees to end at 32074.65 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.34% to settle at 4365 while prices are down -145 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 32200 and below same could see a test of 31790 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 33075, a move above could see prices testing 33540.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 31790-33540.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties.
* Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected.
* Sowing in Gujarat, dropped by nearly -10% with 275,832.00 hectares against sown area of 2021-22 which was 307,135.00 hectares.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -176.05 Rupees to end at 32074.65 Rupees per 100 kg.

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