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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 1.82% at 53893 as the dollar slipped after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank might scale back the pace of its interest rate hikes as soon as December. But Powell also cautioned that the fight against inflation was far from over. Market participants now see a 91% chance of a 50-basis-point hike at the central bank's upcoming December meeting. Investors' attention now turns to the U.S. Labor Department's non-farm payrolls (NFP) data due on Friday, after U.S. private payrolls number signalled weakness in the labour market. However, recent hawkish remarks from several Fed policymakers, with Louis Fed President James Bullard and his New York counterpart John Williams warning about a higher terminal level, brought uncertainty around the rate path. Meanwhile, the latest data showed US GDP growth was revised higher to 2.9% in Q3 from initial estimates of 2.6%. India witnessed a decline in both gold and silver imports in October, according to the latest by the Commerce ministry. The import of the yellow metal declined 17.38% to about $24 billion during April-October due to a fall in demand, according to the data of the commerce ministry. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 11.49% to settle at 16767 while prices are up 962 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 53311 and below same could see a test of 52728 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 54206, a move above could see prices testing 54518.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 52728-54518.
* Gold gains as the dollar slipped after Fed’s Powell said central bank might scale back the pace of its interest rate hikes as soon as December.
* But Powell also cautioned that the fight against inflation was far from over.
* Traders see 91% chance of 50 bps rate hike in December


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 3.07% at 65409 as dollar index extended losses below 105, the lowest in near five months, after fresh data showed PCE inflation slowed in October and factory activity shrank for the first time in over two years, strengthening the case for the Fed to slow the pace of interest rate increases. U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in 2-1/2 years in November as higher borrowing costs weighed on demand for goods, but a measure of prices paid by factories for inputs fell for a second straight month, supporting views that inflation could continue trending lower. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said that its manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 last month. That was the first contraction and also the weakest reading since May 2020, when the economy was reeling from the initial wave of COVID-19 infections, and followed 50.2 in October. U.S. consumer spending increased solidly in October, while inflation moderated, giving the economy a powerful boost at the start of the fourth quarter as it navigates a high interest rate environment. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, jumped 0.8% after an unrevised 0.6$ increase in September, the Commerce Department said. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 15.8% to settle at 19192 while prices are up 1948 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 64594 and below same could see a test of 63780 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 65939, a move above could see prices testing 66470.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 63780-66470.
* Silver rallied as dollar index extended losses below 105, the lowest in near five months
* U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in 2-1/2 years in November as higher borrowing costs weighed on demand for goods
* U.S. consumer spending increased solidly in October, while inflation moderated


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.55% at 6673 on prospects of a recovery in demand and further supply cuts from OPEC+. China has signaled a softening stance in the fight against the coronavirus following massive protests earlier this week, sparking hopes that the world's top crude importer could be swifter in reopening its economy while offering an upbeat outlook for oil demand. Investors also cautiously awaited an OPEC+ meeting on Dec. 4 amid recent speculation of more production cuts, despite little likelihood of a policy change, Reuters reported citing a source with direct knowledge of the matter. On top of that, the latest EIA report showed that US crude inventories slumped by nearly 13 million barrels last week, the most since June 2019. In other related news, the European Commission has asked the bloc’s 27 member states to approve a price cap on Russian oil of $60 a barrel. OPEC oil output has fallen in November, led by top exporter Saudi Arabia and other Gulf members, after the wider OPEC+ alliance pledged steep output cuts to support the market amid a worsening economic outlook. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)pumped 29.01 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, the survey found, down 710,000 bpd from October. In September, OPEC output had been the highest since 2020. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -26.16% to settle at 8664 while prices are up 102 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6530 and below same could see a test of 6388 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6796, a move above could see prices testing 6920.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6388-6920.
* Crude oil jumped on prospects of a recovery in demand and further supply cuts from OPEC+.
* U.S. oil output climbs to highest since March 2020 – EIA
* OPEC oil output drops in November after cut pledged


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -2.39% at 554.8 on prospects of a recovery in demand and further supply cuts from OPEC+. China has signaled a softening stance in the fight against the coronavirus following massive protests earlier this week, sparking hopes that the world's top crude importer could be swifter in reopening its economy while offering an upbeat outlook for oil demand. Investors also cautiously awaited an OPEC+ meeting on Dec. 4 amid recent speculation of more production cuts, despite little likelihood of a policy change, Reuters reported citing a source with direct knowledge of the matter. On top of that, the latest EIA report showed that US crude inventories slumped by nearly 13 million barrels last week, the most since June 2019. In other related news, the European Commission has asked the bloc’s 27 member states to approve a price cap on Russian oil of $60 a barrel. OPEC oil output has fallen in November, led by top exporter Saudi Arabia and other Gulf members, after the wider OPEC+ alliance pledged steep output cuts to support the market amid a worsening economic outlook. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)pumped 29.01 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, the survey found, down 710,000 bpd from October. In September, OPEC output had been the highest since 2020. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 9.49% to settle at 8657 while prices are down -13.6 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 541 and below same could see a test of 527.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 577.4, a move above could see prices testing 600.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 527.3-600.1.
* Natural gas dropped amid forecasts for less cold weather and lower U.S. gas demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
* Meanwhile investors remained concerned about possible coal supply disruptions.
* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 99.6 bcfd so far in November, up from a monthly record 99.4 bcfd in October.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.99% at 691.55 as measures to stimulate construction and industrial activity coincided with looming supply concerns. Authorities in top consumer China lifted a ban on equity refinancing for listed property developers, shortly after the country’s top banks extended $162 billion in fresh credit lines for the sector. Additionally, the PBoC cut its reserve ratio by 25bps after rapidly increasing covid cases in the country drove the government to trigger strict lockdowns and business curbs. Concerns of upcoming shortages also supported copper futures to hover nearly 15% above the 20-month low of $3.2 hit in July. Commodity trader Trafigura warned that global copper stocks have fallen to record lows, with current inventories enough to supply world consumption for just 4.9 days. Freeport-McMoran was also vocal about shortage risks, stating that low prices do not reflect the tightness of the physical market. Copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer of the metal, rose 2.2% year-on-year to 485,447 tonnes in October, the country's statistics agency INE said. The world's refined copper market showed a 10,000 tonne deficit in September, compared with 13,000 tonnes in August, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. World refined copper output in September was 2.16 million tonnes, while consumption was 2.17 million tonnes. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.29% to settle at 5215 while prices are up 6.75 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 686.5 and below same could see a test of 681.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 694.8, a move above could see prices testing 698.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 681.4-698.
* Copper rose as measures to stimulate construction and industrial activity coincided with looming supply concerns.
* PBoC cut its reserve ratio by 25bps after rapidly increasing covid cases drove the government to trigger strict lockdowns and business curbs.
* Chile copper output up 2.2% in October; industrial output drops 9.2%


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.31% at 271.05 as investors' mood improved amid hopes that China could soon relax some covid restrictions. The country announced measures to boost elderly vaccination while covid cases fell for the first time in more than a week. The global zinc market deficit rose to 103,000 tonnes in September from a revised deficit of 90,200 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 101,100 tonnes in August. During the first nine months of 2022, ILZSG data showed a deficit of 43,000 tonnes versus a deficit of 101,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. China imported 1,007 mt of refined zinc in October, down 77.55% on the month and 97.54% on the year. Still, concerns persist about the possibility of further supply disruptions in Europe amid uncertainty around shortages of energy. Numerous European zinc producers had to either shut down their smelters entirely or cut production down this year due to high energy costs and low inventories. Meanwhile, the Budel smelter of Nyrstar was planning to resume production partially this month, and giant Glencore said it expects to resume production in the first quarter of 2023. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.01% to settle at 3298 while prices are up 0.85 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 269.4 and below same could see a test of 267.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 272.6, a move above could see prices testing 274.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 267.7-274.1.
* Zinc rose as investors' mood improved amid hopes that China could soon relax some covid restrictions.
* China announced measures to boost elderly vaccination while covid cases fell for the first time in more than a week.
* Global zinc market deficit rises to 103,000 T in September – ILZSG


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.14% at 211.1 amid forecasts for less cold weather and lower U.S. gas demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. U.S. spot natural gas prices at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana rose in November to their highest since 2008 as soaring prices around the world kept demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports strong. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to a record 99.5 bcfd in November, up from 99.2 bcfd in October. But on a daily basis, output was on track to drop about 2.1 bcfd to a preliminary 98.3 bcfd on Thursday. Traders, however, noted first of the month preliminary data was unreliable and is often revised higher. With colder weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 115.9 bcfd this week to 123.6 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday. At the same time, investors continue to monitor the situation at the Freeport LNG plant. The plant's restart has been delayed from November to mid-December. Still, a request to restart the plant needs to be submitted, raising questions about another delay, which would mean more gas in the domestic market. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.26% to settle at 7131 while prices are down -0.3 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 209.6 and below same could see a test of 208.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 212.8, a move above could see prices testing 214.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 208.1-214.5.
* Aluminium dropped amid profit booking as China’s operating aluminium capacity rose slightly.
* China's factory activity contracted at a faster pace in November, an official survey showed.
* LME Inventories were down 14.2% from 587,100 tonnes on Oct. 26.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.04% at 952 as mentha exports during Apr-Sept 2022 has dropped by 13.84 percent at 1,107.20 tonnes as compared to 1,285.12 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 238.04 tonnes in August 2022 showing a drop of 7.30%. In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 250.97 tonnes in September 2021 showing a drop of 12.07%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 17.2 Rupees to end at 1113.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.76% to settle at 913 while prices are down -0.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 948.5 and below same could see a test of 945 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 955.1, a move above could see prices testing 958.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 945-958.2.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 17.2 Rupees to end at 1113.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha prices dropped as exports during Apr-Sept 2022 has dropped by 13.84 percent
* In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes Mentha was exported showing a drop of 7.30%.
* However, Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.31% at 7160 amid lower demand from domestic spice-makers and stockists amid availability of Turmeric supply form Marathwada region. Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years. Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar said unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, Turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares as compared to last year same period 19,376 hectares, down by 12.67%. Turmeric exports during Apr- Sept 2022 has rose by 14.65 percent at 88,384.27 tonnes as compared to 77,091.52 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 13,990.65 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,147.89 tonnes in August 2022 showing a rise of 15.16%. In the month of September 2022 around 13,990.65 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,598.15 tonnes in September 2021 showing a rise of 11.05%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7363.2 Rupees dropped -15 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.41% to settle at 8310 while prices are down -22 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7094 and below same could see a test of 7028 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7236, a move above could see prices testing 7312.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7028-7312.
* Turmeric dropped amid lower demand from domestic spice-makers and stockists amid availability of supply.
* As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares, down by 12.67% till date from last year.
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7363.2 Rupees dropped -15 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 2.21% at 25235 amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. As per Gujarat Government, around 77,037 hectares of sowing has been completed as on 21st November 2022 in Jeera key growing regions in Gujarat and according to this data, normal area (three years average) in Gujarat likely to be around 421,457 hectares. Jeera exports during Apr- Sept 2022 has dropped by 21.28 percent at 1,09,587.28 tonnes as compared to 1,39,218.38 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 18,081.78 tonnes jeera was exported as against 24,448.33 tonnes in August 2022 showing a drop of 26.04%. In the month of September 2022 around 18,081.78 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,828.07 tonnes in September 2021 showing a rise of 21.94%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 324.35 Rupees to end at 24835.95 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.18% to settle at 5373 while prices are up 545 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 24815 and below same could see a test of 24400 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25530, a move above could see prices testing 25830.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 24400-25830.
* Jeera prices gained amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market.
* Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 324.35 Rupees to end at 24835.95 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 2.44% at 32380 on reports that North Indian cotton’s quality has diminished due to extended monsoon. markets were receiving nearly a third lower in supplies than normal. Cotton supply is expected to remain around 38.7 million bales which was 39.2 million bales during 2021-22. Export demand from neighboring countries and winter season demand in domestic market is increased usually in Oct-Dec. India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season that started on Oct. 1, up 12% from a year ago after farmers expanded the crop area. India’s cotton output for the season ended September 30, 2022, fell to 307.5 lakh bales (against 360.13 lakh bales estimated at the beginning of the season in October last year. This is the lowest since 2007-08, when the production was 307 lakh bales. WASDE report said world trade is projected to be nearly 1 million bales lower from September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam. The agency lowered its U.S. exports forecast by 100,000 bales to 12.5 million bales, while also cutting export estimates for Australia, Brazil, India, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Greece and Mexico. "In the 2022/23 world balance sheet this month, consumption is 3.0 million bales lower and ending stocks are 3.1 million bales higher," the USDA said. In spot market, Cotton gained by 310 Rupees to end at 32940 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.83% to settle at 2837 while prices are up 770 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 31850 and below same could see a test of 31310 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 32750, a move above could see prices testing 33110.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 31310-33110.
* Cotton prices gained on reports that North Indian cotton’s quality has diminished due to extended monsoon.
* Cotton supply is expected to remain around 38.7 million bales which was 39.2 million bales during 2021-22.
* Data from CFTC showed that speculators cut their net short position on cotton futures
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 310 Rupees to end at 32940 Rupees.

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