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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.88% at 47972 shrugging off stronger-than-expected monthly jobs data, and after major central banks struck a dovish tone on interest rates. The Federal Reserve stuck to its view that inflation would prove “transitory” and would likely not require a fast rise in interest rates. Following that, the Bank of England surprised markets by keeping rates on hold.

Extremely low interest rates to spur economic growth during the pandemic have pushed gold prices to new highs over the last two years, as easy monetary policy cuts the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. U.S. employment increased more than expected in October as the headwind from the surge in COVID-19 infections over the summer subsided, offering more evidence that economic activity was regaining momentum early in the fourth quarter. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 531,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report.

Physical gold demand in India, jumped as buyers took advantage of a slight dip in prices and bought the precious metal during the festival season. The Perth Mint's sales of gold products in October slipped about 39.5%, while silver sales fell 24.5%, the refiner said. Sales of gold coins and minted bars in October fell to 59,750 ounces from 98,753 ounces in September, but was up nearly 56% from a year earlier. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.31% to settled at 8176 while prices up 419 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47506 and below same could see a test of 47040 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 48226, a move above could see prices testing 48480.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 47040-48480.

* Gold prices gained shrugging off stronger-than-expected monthly jobs data, and after major central banks struck a dovish tone on interest rates.

* The Federal Reserve stuck to its view that inflation would prove “transitory” and would likely not require a fast rise in interest rates.

* U.S. employment increased more than expected in October as the headwind from the surge in COVID-19 infections over the summer subsided.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.33% at 64332 getting support after big central banks showed divergences with market hawks on interest rate and tapering outlooks. The Bank of England decided to leave interest rates and its quantitative easing program unchanged, defying consensus that it would be the first major central bank to raise interest rates. The Federal Reserve announced it would begin tapering its $120 billion monthly asset purchases but stressed once again that inflation would be transitory and would not require a fast hike in interest rates.

ECB President Christine Lagarde also pushed back against rate hike bets, stating that it would be very unlikely to raise interest rates in 2022. On a weekly basis, the precious metal pointed towards a 0.4% gain. Euro zone retail sales recorded an unexpected drop in September as Germany, the bloc's biggest economy, underperformed and non-food sales were also weak, data from Eurostat showed.

Retail sales, a proxy for consumer demand, in the 19 countries sharing the euro, fell 0.3% month-on-month in September and were up 2.5% from a year earlier, the European Union's statistics office said. U.S. employment increased more than expected in October as the headwind from the surge in COVID-19 infections over the summer subsided, offering more evidence that economic activity was regaining momentum early in the fourth quarter.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.97% to settled at 9609 while prices up 212 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 63578 and below same could see a test of 62824 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 64783, a move above could see prices testing 65234.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 62824-65234.
* Silver rose getting support after big central banks showed divergences with market hawks on interest rate and tapering outlooks.
* The Federal Reserve announced it would begin tapering its $120 billion monthly asset purchases but stressed once again that inflation would be transitory
* The Bank of England decided to leave interest rates and its quantitative easing program unchanged.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -2.26% at 6053 as OPEC and its allies decided to stick with a plan to raise oil output modestly and gradually. Saudi's oil output will surpass 10 million barrels per day for the first time since the onset of the pandemic weighed on oil prices. OPEC and its allies agreed to stick to plans to raise oil output by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) from December, despite calls from the United States for extra supply to cool rising prices.

The White House said Washington would consider a full range of tools at its disposal to guarantee access to affordable energy. Oil stocks will see "tremendous" builds at the end of 2021 and early 2022 because of slowing consumption, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said. Oil prices, which had previously been up by more than $2 per barrel, began paring gains as OPEC+ met. Top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia are confident higher oil prices will not elicit a fast response from the U.S. shale industry, OPEC+ sources said. U.S. companies have pledged to preserve capital and prioritize investor returns.

President Joe Biden, speaking at a climate summit in Glasgow, blamed a surge in oil and gas prices on a refusal by OPEC nations to pump more crude. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.12% to settled at 5201 while prices down -140 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5936 and below same could see a test of 5820 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6119, a move above could see prices testing 6186.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5820-6186.
* Crude oil dropped as OPEC and its allies decided to stick with a plan to raise oil output modestly and gradually.
* OPEC+ rebuffs U.S. calls for speedier oil output increases
* Saudi's oil output will surpass 10 million barrels per day for the first time since the onset of the pandemic.

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -3.55% at 415.3 on near record output and expectations U.S. utilities will keep stockpiling gas for a couple more weeks. That price decline came despite forecasts for seasonally colder weather expected to boost heating demand in mid November. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. utilities added 63 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Oct. 29. Last week's injection boosted stockpiles to 3.611 trillion cubic feet (tcf), which is 2.7% below the five-year average of 3.712 tcf for this time of year.

Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states averaged 95.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 94.1 bcfd in October. On a daily basis, output reached 96.4 bcfd on Thursday, its highest since hitting a record high of 96.6 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 98.5 bcfd this week to 95.8 bcfd next week as the weather turns milder before jumping to 104.9 bcfd in two weeks when the weather turns seasonally cold. The forecasts for this week and next week were higher than Refinitiv projected on Thursday.

The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 10.7 bcfd so far in November, up from 10.5 bcfd in October. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.2% to settled at 4392 while prices down -15.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 408.5 and below same could see a test of 401.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 423.8, a move above could see prices testing 432.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 401.7-432.3.
* Natural gas eased on near record output and expectations U.S. utilities will keep stockpiling gas for a couple more weeks.
* That price decline came despite forecasts for seasonally colder weather expected to boost heating demand in mid November.
* EIA said U.S. utilities added 63 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Oct. 29.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.79% at 731.9 as the US dollar index rose after the dovish stance of UK central bank, and the NDRC also further indicated rising coal supply. However downside seen limited as low stockpiles in exchange warehouses lent some support to the metal, following sharp drops in the recent weeks. On-warrant LME copper inventories edged up to 31,675 tonnes, but still hovered near their lowest since 1998 of 14,150 tonnes hit on Oct. 14. LME cash copper premium over the three-month contract were at $275 a tonne, indicating tight nearby supplies.

A rural community in Peru will lift its blockade of the country’s largest copper mine Antamina after protests forced miners to suspend operations, the Peruvian Ministry of Energy and Mines said. According to a report by the Chilean state copper commission Cochilco, the domestic copper production in September 2021 was 447,400 tonnes, a decline of 7% compared to 479,800 tonnes mined in September 2020. Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine, produced 82,600 tonnes of copper in September 2021, a 12% decrease compared to September 2020 (94,100 tonnes).

Collahuasi, the world’s second largest copper mine, produced 46,100 tonnes of copper in September 2021, which is 14% less compared to 53,400 tonnes of copper mined in September 2020. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.96% to settled at 4736 while prices down -5.85 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 725.9 and below same could see a test of 719.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 736.9, a move above could see prices testing 741.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 719.8-741.8.
* Copper dropped as the US dollar index rose after the dovish stance of UK central bank, and the NDRC also further indicated rising coal supply.
* Peru community to suspend Antamina protest that rattled markets
* According to a report by Cochilco, the domestic copper production in September 2021 was 447,400 tonnes, down by 7%.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.14% at 273.1 as In China, the National Development and Reform Commission expressed that the coal supply will continue to increase, easing the concerns of electricity shortage. The COVID cases in Europe surged amid a comparatively low vaccination coverage and loosening public health control.

The economic development in the Eurozone has been negatively impacted by the resurging pandemic coupled with the unresolved energy crisis. Meanwhile, the recent data released in the Eurozone also lacked highlights, which concerned the market. On the fundamentals, the power rationing in Inner Mongolia has resulted in tight zinc ore supply in local areas.

While the disrupted transportation on the back of COVID has raised the costs of both capital and time when transporting from one province to another, which weighed on the TCs further. And the smelters were also unlikely to resume peak production amid shrinking profits. Total zinc inventories across seven Chinese markets stood at 134,400 mt as of November 5, down 6,300 mt from November 1 and 9,200 mt from October 29. The inventory in Shanghai declined as downstream buyers restocked goods on dips. Guangdong saw a slight decrease in stocks as power rationing in Guangxi loosened and the arrivals of cargoes increased.

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.61% to settled at 1166 while prices down -3.15 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 269.5 and below same could see a test of 266 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 275.5, a move above could see prices testing 278.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 266-278.
* Zinc dropped as In China, the NDRC expressed that the coal supply will continue to increase, easing the concerns of electricity shortage.
* The power rationing in Inner Mongolia has resulted in tight zinc ore supply in local areas.
* Economic development in the Eurozone has been negatively impacted by the resurging pandemic coupled with the unresolved energy crisis.

Nickel 

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.32% at 1488.9 as Nickel output from the Philippines, the second-largest producer, is expected to be 10% lower than the annual average due to frequent rainfalls and fewer vessels coming in.

However upside seen limited as the new energy sector was currently on the bearish side due to the oversupply of nickel sulphate and rising market shares of LFP batteries. While the stainless steel sector believed that nickel prices still carried support amid high costs of NPI. In spite of easing prices, the fundamental outlook for the metal remains bullish on growing concerns over supplies coupled with firm demand.

The latest data showed nickel production at Russian miner Nornickel fell 23% from a year earlier to 129,858 tons in the first three quarters of the year; and Vale SA cut its production guidance for this year to 165,000-170,000 tonnes from 200,000 previously projected amid a strike at its Canadian mine while its Brazilian mine at Onca Puma is suspended by the court.

Elsewhere, recent data showed China's imports of nickel pig iron, a cheap substitute of refined nickel, fell in September. The US jobless claims in the week of October 30 dropped 14,000 to 269,000, the lowest since March, 2020, which indicated a motivated economy after the public health situation improved.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.82% to settled at 1548 while prices up 4.8 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1473.1 and below same could see a test of 1457.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1504.1, a move above could see prices testing 1519.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1457.3-1519.3.
* Nickel gains as Nickel output from the Philippines, is expected to be 10% lower than the annual average.
* However upside seen limited as the new energy sector was currently on the bearish side due to the oversupply of nickel sulphate.
* Data showed nickel production at Russian miner Nornickel fell 23% from a year earlier to 129,858 tons in the first three quarters of the year.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -2.32% at 204.6 as rising coal output in China eased worries about the metal's supply. Aluminium smelting is an energy-intensive process and China is the world's biggest producer of the metal. China's daily coal output hit 11.2 million tonnes on Wednesday, rising around 1 million tonnes from early October, close to a record high this year amid a raft of measures to ramp up production, according to the country's state planner.

Expectations that Russia will remove taxes on aluminium exports and boost global supplies have triggered an inventory sell-off that has slashed prices of the metal on the physical market in Europe and the United States. As the drawdown in aluminium stocks, estimated at around 1 million tonnes in Europe and up to half a million tonnes in the United States, accelerates prices are likely to fall further.

The total inventory of aluminium ingots and rods this week is 1.15 million mt, flat from last week. The actual inventory accumulation trend is coming to an end. If the total inventory of aluminium ingots and rods declines in the next week, aluminium prices are likely to rebound from low levels. The US jobless claims in the week of October 30 dropped 14,000 to 269,000, the lowest since March, 2020, which indicated a motivated economy after the public health situation improved.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.24% to settled at 3353 while prices down -4.85 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 201.4 and below same could see a test of 198.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 207.9, a move above could see prices testing 211.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 198.2-211.2.
* Aluminium prices fell as rising coal output in China eased worries about the metal's supply.
* Expectations that Russia will remove taxes on aluminium exports and boost global supplies have triggered an inventory sell-off
* Aluminium smelting is an energy-intensive process and China is the world's biggest producer of the metal.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.29% at 939.7 as demand from consumer side is extremely weak and industrial demand is also not picking up. Prices got support in last few weeks as due to crop failure and low recovery of oil, availability of Mentha oil will be low and demand from industries are expected to improve ahead of winter season.

Speculation are also high that production this year will be lower as compare with last year because of two important factors. Major physical market player expects demand to sluggish for next few week as cash crunch seen in spot market, while expectations are high about demand improvement ahead of winter season starts.

China is one of the biggest buyer for Indian Mentha, no much buying inquiry from China as mainland China and Hong Kong markets were shut. Speculation are also high that production this year will be lower as compare with last year because of two important factors. Firstly damages due to rain in key area and secondly farmers for the last 2 years where sowing mentha but due to not getting much profit at intervals there had been shift to other crops also. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 22 Rupees to end at 1062.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.88% to settled at 1013 while prices down -2.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 936.9 and below same could see a test of 934 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 943.8, a move above could see prices testing 947.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 934-947.8.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 22 Rupees to end at 1062.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as demand from consumer side is extremely weak
* Prices got support in last few weeks as due to crop failure and low recovery of oil
* Availability of Mentha oil will be low and demand from industries are expected to improve ahead of winter season.
 

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 0.2% at 5453 on some low level buying after prices dropped as Soyabean production is estimated to rise by 14 per cent to nearly 119 lakh tonnes this year on higher sowing area and likely improvement in productivity, according to industry body SOPA. In its estimate, Soyabean Processors Association of India (SOPA) said that the total area under soybean for the year 2021 is 119.984 lakh hectares.

The government's area estimate is 123.677 lakh hectares. In last year's Kharif (summer sow) season, total soyabean acreage stood at 118.383 lakh hectare. China's soybean imports from Brazil in September fell 18% from a year earlier, customs data showed, as poor crush margins limited demand. The world's top buyer of soybeans brought in 5.936 million tonnes of the oilseed from Brazil last month, versus 7.25 million tonnes in the corresponding year-ago period, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

Private exporters reported the sale of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year, the U.S. Agriculture Department said. Separate sales of 222,350 tonnes of soybeans for delivery during unknown time periods also were reported. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -33 Rupees to 5674 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.09% to settled at 59955 while prices up 11 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5426 and below same could see a test of 5398 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5476, a move above could see prices testing 5498.

Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 5398-5498.
* Soyabean gained on some low level buying after prices dropped as Soyabean production is estimated to rise by 14 per cent to nearly 119 lakh tonnes
* India's edible oil producers' body urges members to cut prices to help consumers
* CME lowers soybean futures (s) maintenance margins by 14.5% to $2,650 per contract from $3,100 for November 2021
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -33 Rupees to 5674 Rupees per 100 kgs.
 

Soya oil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -1.73% at 1234.9 on profit booking after prices seen supported as the vegetable oil market faces a significant squeeze due to lower output. India slashed its base import tax on crude palm oil, crude soyoil and crude sunflower oil to zero from 2.5%, as the world's biggest vegetable oil buyer tries to cool near-record price rises.

The Govt. has decided to impose stock limits on edible oils and oilseeds up to March 31, 2022. This decision has been taken to soften the prices of edible oils in the country and provide relief to consumers. The Ministry said that the stock limits will be decided by the respective state governments depending on local conditions. It has however decided to give exemption to importers and exporters subject to conditions.

Oilseeds output is also expected to be down a tad at 23.38 mt as soyabean production was affected by the patchy rains in the key producing States of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, respectively. Favorable weather over the weekend boosted U.S. harvest, while exports remain capped by terminals on the U.S. Gulf Coast that continue to struggle with power outages and hurricane-led damage as the country heads into its busiest export season. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1291.8 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.87% to settled at 36350 while prices down -21.8 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1229 and below same could see a test of 1223 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1243, a move above could see prices testing 1251.

Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1223-1251.
* Ref soyoil dropped  on profit booking after prices seen supported as the vegetable oil market faces a significant squeeze due to lower output.
* Oilseeds output is also expected to be down a tad at 23.38 mt as soyabean production was affected.
* India’s Sept edible oil stocks at ports and pipelines rose 3.24 percent mom: SEA
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1291.8 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -1.84% at 1111.9 as expectations of higher end stocks for October and rumours of poorer exports weighed on sentiment. However downside seen limited as supply constraints due to the rainy season and strength in rival oils supported the market.

Prices are seen rising as the rainy season and coronavirus-linked labour shortage are slowing output in Malaysia. October export data improved amid tight supply worries. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) estimated Oct. 1-15 production declined 0.2% from the month before in some parts of Malaysia.

The Indian Vegetable Oils Producers Association says it is seeing early signs of demand shifting from palm oil to soft oils after India's duty cut made soft oil more attractive. Malaysia's crude palm oil production in 2021 is forecast to decline by 700,000 tonnes to 18.4 million tonnes due to a labour shortage and erratic weather conditions, state agency the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) said.

Neighbouring Indonesia has not faced such labour issues and has expanded its planted area by about 200,000 hectares this year, MPOC chief executive Wan Zawawi Wan Ismail said. Production in the world's largest palm oil producer is projected to rise by 2.5 million tonnes to 45.5 million tonnes, he said. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 7.5 Rupees to end at 1147.7 Rupees.

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.74% to settled at 4587 while prices down -20.9 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1103 and below same could see a test of 1094.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1123.8, a move above could see prices testing 1135.8.

Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1094.2-1135.8.
* Crude palm oil dropped as expectations of higher end stocks for October and rumours of poorer exports weighed on sentiment.
* However downside seen limited as supply constraints due to the rainy season and strength in rival oils supported the market.
* The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association estimated Oct. 1-15 production declined 0.2% from the month before in some parts of Malaysia.
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 7.5 Rupees to end at 1147.7 Rupees.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.05% at 7596 following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. However upside seen limited amid prospects of better crop this kharif season along with tepid demand.

The areas where turmeric has been sown have received adequate rainfall and are expected to produce well in the next season. Due to favorable weather, production is likely to be higher in 2021-22 (July-June) season. Besides, heavy carryover stocks and slack in bulk demand are keeping prices under pressure.

In the first 4 months of FY 2021-22, turmeric exports declined by 26% to 53,000 tonnes as compared to the same period last year, but almost at the same level as the 5-year average. Support is expected on the news that due to June and July floods almost 10% crop washed away so we can see 10-15 % less sowing also farmers had shown interested in other crops as prices where more.

Pressure also seen as the lockdown restrictions were eased the key Turmeric growing states, including Maharashtra and Telangana reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals, which augmented physical market supplies and pressurized prices. In the first 6 months of 2021, turmeric exports declined by 3% to 77,300 tonnes compared to the same period last year, but could be higher in the coming months. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7165.8 Rupees gained 36.65 Rupees.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.78% to settled at 5255 while prices up 4 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7560 and below same could see a test of 7526 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7634, a move above could see prices testing 7674.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7526-7674.
* Turmeric settled flat following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
* However upside seen limited amid prospects of better crop this kharif season along with tepid demand.
* The areas where turmeric has been sown have received adequate rainfall and are expected to produce well in the next season.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7165.8 Rupees gained 36.65 Rupees.
 

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.52% at 15360 as domestic festive demand is now picking up also the export inquiries to support price. However upside seen limited as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keeping prices under pressure at higher levels.

Jeera production in Syria and Turkey was limited due to bad weather, which increases demand for Indian cumin. As of now Exports of Jeera for Apr-Aug was down by 12% Y/Y at 1.24 lakh tonnes but expected improve in coming months as Rupee weakness will support exports. During last two months, the prices were higher compared to last year despite sufficient stocks with traders.

Sowing can see drop as farmers preferred to have other crop against Jeera. Weather in key sowing area will be crucial in next few months. The export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export of cumin in a big way. Purchase of cumin seeds from African and Middle East countries will be diverted from other countries to India this year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -13.35 Rupees to end at 14700 Rupees per 100 kg.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.23% to settled at 3870 while prices up 80 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 15320 and below same could see a test of 15285 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 15410, a move above could see prices testing 15465.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 15285-15465.
* Jeera gains as domestic festive demand is now picking up also the export inquiries to support price.
* However upside seen limited as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keeping prices under pressure at higher levels.
* India's cumin exports will increase due to less supply from Afghanistan-Syrian
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -13.35 Rupees to end at 14700 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -1.18% at 32690 on profit booking as India’s cotton production in 2021-22 season is likely to be 360.13 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 382.64 lakh running bales of 160 kg each), which is more by 7.13 lakh bales than the previous season’s crop of 353 lakh bales, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) has said in its first estimate for the new season beginning October 1, 2021. As per report, the loose cotton production figures for the 2020-21 crop year were less by 25 per cent at 5.45 lakh bales of 170 kg each, since the said crop year was a pandemic year.

The preliminary yearly Balance Sheet projected by the CAI Crop Committee estimates total cotton supply till end of the 2021-22 Season i.e. upto September 30, 2022 at 445.13 lakh bales of 170 kg each, which consists of the opening stock of 75.00 lakh bales at the beginning of the season, crop for the season estimated at 360.13 lakh bales, and imports for the season estimated at the same level as in the last year i.e. at 10 lakh bales. Cotton exports could be lower at 50 lakh bales this season (October 2021-September 2022) compared with 75-80 lakh bales last season. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -20 Rupees to end at 32850 Rupees.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.45% to settled at 3331 while prices down -390 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 32420 and below same could see a test of 32160 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 33030, a move above could see prices testing 33380.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 32160-33380.
* Cotton prices dropped on profit booking as India's cotton output to increase by 7.13 lakh bales this season
* Cotton exports could be lower at 50 lakh bales this season compared with 75-80 lakh bales last season.

* SIMA said cotton production this year is estimated to be 360 lakh bales
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -20 Rupees to end at 32850 Rupees.

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