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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.6% at 47603 as a key Federal Reserve official’s hawkish comments reinforced bets for early tapering of the central bank’s bond-buying program. Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida suggested the central bank could begin tapering its asset purchases later this year. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits declined further last week, while layoffs dropped to their lowest level in just over 21 years in July as companies held on to workers amid a labor shortage. Investors also took note of the Bank of England’s decision to leave interest rates and its bond-buying program on hold. India's gold imports in July more than doubled from a year earlier to their highest level in three months as demand improved after states lifted lockdown restrictions, allowing retail consumers to make purchases for weddings. India imported 74 tonnes of gold in July, compared to 32 tonnes a year earlier. In value terms, July imports surged to $4.2 billion from $1.78 billion a year ago. Russia produced 79.05 tonnes of gold in the first four months of 2021, down from the 81.27 tonnes it produced in the same period in 2020, the finance ministry said. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.64% to settled at 12815 while prices down -289 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47424 and below same could see a test of 47245 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47861, a move above could see prices testing 48119.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 47245-48119.
* Gold fell as a key Federal Reserve official’s hawkish comments reinforced bets for early tapering of the central bank’s bond-buying program.
* Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida suggested the central bank could begin tapering its asset purchases later this year.
* India’s gold imports in July more than doubled from a year earlier to their highest level in three months as demand improved

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.89% at 66998 as the dollar crept higher on hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida cementing expectations for a hike in interest rate in early 2023. Clarida said that criteria for raising rates could be achieved by the end of 2022, warranting an action in early 2023. Although the labor market recovery is far from desired levels, inflation has exceeded the Fed's 2 percent goal. Clarida said he expects the labor market to have reached the maximum employment goal by the end of 2022. "Given this outlook and so long as inflation expectations remain well anchored at the 2% longer-run goal … commencing policy normalization in 2023 would, under these conditions, be entirely consistent with our new flexible average inflation targeting framework," he added. The U.S. trade deficit surged to a record high in June as efforts by business to rebuild inventories to meet robust consumer spending drew in more imports. The Commerce Department said that the trade gap increased 6.7% to $75.7 billion in June, an all-time high. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits declined further last week, while layoffs dropped to their lowest level in just over 21 years in July as companies held on to workers amid a labor shortage. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.04% to settled at 9303 while prices down -603 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66559 and below same could see a test of 66119 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67582, a move above could see prices testing 68165.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 66119-68165.
* Silver settled down as the dollar crept higher on hawkish comments from Fed’s Richard Clarida cementing expectations for a hike in interest rate in early 2023.
* The U.S. trade deficit surged to a record high in June as efforts by business to rebuild inventories to meet robust consumer spending drew in more imports.
* Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida suggested the central bank could begin tapering its asset purchases later this year.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.79% at 5122 on rising Middle East tensions, while fresh movement restrictions imposed by countries to counter a surge in COVID-19 cases threatened the demand recovery. Israeli jets struck what its military said were rocket launch sites in Lebanon early in response to two rockets fired towards Israel from Lebanese territory, in an escalation of cross-border hostilities amid heightened tensions with Iran. Offsetting the Mideast tensions, concerns over the recovery of global oil demand grew amid a surge in coronavirus cases. Japan is poised to expand emergency restrictions to more prefectures while China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, has imposed curbs in some cities and cancelled flights, threatening fuel demand. U.S. crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub fell last week to the lowest since January 2020, Energy Information Administration data showed. Crude inventories at Cushing fell to 34.9 million barrels, EIA data showed. U.S. crude stocks and distillate inventories rose while gasoline inventories fell, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories rose by 3.6 million barrels in the week to July 30 to 439.2 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 3.1 million-barrel drop. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 543,000 barrels in the last week, EIA said. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.92% to settled at 6202 while prices up 40 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5049 and below same could see a test of 4977 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5170, a move above could see prices testing 5219.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4977-5219.
* Crude oil gained on rising Middle East tensions, while fresh movement restrictions imposed by countries to counter a surge in COVID-19 cases threatened the demand recovery.
* Offsetting the Mideast tensions, concerns over the recovery of global oil demand grew amid a surge in coronavirus cases.
* U.S. crude stocks and distillate inventories rose while gasoline inventories fell, the Energy Information Administration said.

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.42% at 308.5 amid forecasts for slightly less hot weather over the next two week than previously expected. However downside seen limited after the storage build came in smaller-than-expected as power generators burned lots of fuel to keep air conditioners humming during last week's hot weather. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 13 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended July 30. Last week's injection boosted stockpiles to 2.727 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 6.4% below the five-year average of 2.912 tcf for this time of year. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 91.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August from 91.6 bcfd in July. That was still well below the all-time high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 90.9 bcfd this week to 94.3 bcfd next week as power generators burn more fuel to meet rising air conditioning use. U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico fell from an average of 6.5 bcfd in July to 6.0 bcfd so far in August. That compares with a record 6.7 bcfd in June. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -18.31% to settled at 15072 while prices down -1.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 305 and below same could see a test of 301.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 312, a move above could see prices testing 315.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 301.6-315.6.
* Natural gas prices dropped amid forecasts for slightly less hot weather over the next two week than previously expected.
* However downside seen limited after the storage build came in smaller-than-expected as power generators burned lots of fuel to keep air conditioners humming
* The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 13 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended July 30.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.29% at 731.45 as support seen after German industrial orders rose more than expected in June. A senior Federal Reserve official said the conditions for raising U.S. interest rates could be met by the end of 2022. A Chinese health official said he expected a coronavirus outbreak in China to be largely under control within weeks. Industrial metals will likely fall in 2021 and 2022 with copper averaging $7,500 a tonne in the last quarter of next year. China's spot copper premium were at a two-week low of 295 yuan a tonne as of July 29. US July ISM manufacturing data was lower than expected, indicating that the growth in the manufacturing industry had been slowed down for two consecutive months. The sweeping pandemic caused by the Delta COVID-19 variant across the world intensified the global concerns about the economic recovery. Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, voted last week to reject the final salary proposal of BHP. Domestic copper stocks kept falling for a long time to a record low. The continuous short squeeze in LME market limited the increase in the SHFE/LME ratio, and imported copper could not flow into domestic market smoothly. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.49% to settled at 4892 while prices up 2.1 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 727.2 and below same could see a test of 722.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 734.5, a move above could see prices testing 737.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 722.8-737.4.
* Copper prices gained as support seen after German industrial orders rose more than expected in June.
* A senior Federal Reserve official said the conditions for raising U.S. interest rates could be met by the end of 2022.
* China's spot copper premium were at a two-week low of 295 yuan a tonne as of July 29.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.57% at 248.35 as the strengthened power curtailment cross China further limited the zinc ingot supply. The U.S. trade deficit surged to a record high in June as efforts by business to rebuild inventories to meet robust consumer spending drew in more imports. The Commerce Department said that the trade gap increased 6.7% to $75.7 billion in June, an all-time high. On the macro front, US is likely to increase interest rate for the first time in 2023, and announce cut-back program on debt purchasing within this year, according to Fed Vice Chair Clarida. The manufacturing PMI of major economies from the euro zone was basically in line with expectation, increasing expectations over reduced debt-purchasing. In the US, the growth rate of service industry recorded a new high, but the ADP employment data was only 330,000, greatly below the expected 683,000. China's factory activity growth slipped sharply in July as demand contracted for the first time in over a year in part on high product prices, a business survey showed, underscoring challenges facing the world's manufacturing hub. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 50.3 last month from 51.3 the month before, the lowest level since April 2020. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 32.6% to settled at 1989 while prices up 3.85 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 245.9 and below same could see a test of 243.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 249.9, a move above could see prices testing 251.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 243.5-251.5.
* Zinc prices rose as the strengthened power curtailment cross China further limited the zinc ingot supply.
* China's July factory activity growth slips to 15 – month low – Caixin PMI
* US is likely to increase interest rate for the first time in 2023, and announce cut-back program on debt purchasing within this year.
 

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.66% at 1470.2 as supply remains tight and LME inventory has fallen from an April peak, mainly due to disruptions at nickel mines in New Caledonia, Russia and Canada. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits declined further last week, while layoffs dropped to their lowest level in just over 21 years in July as companies held on to workers amid a labor shortage. The weekly unemployment claims report from the Labor Department, the most timely data on the economy’s health, also showed the number of people on state jobless rolls dropped in late July to its lowest level since March 2020, when mandatory closures of nonessential businesses were enforced to slow the first wave of COVID-19 cases. On the macro front, Jim Bullard, President of St. Louis Federal Reserve, said that inflation in the US might last longer than someone expected, but once again stressed that it was temporary. He believed that the debt cut-back could be finished by the first quarter of 2022. On the other hand, the US ADP employment data was far below expectation, and was the lowest since February, bringing more panics to the market. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.21% to settled at 1766 while prices up 9.7 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1457 and below same could see a test of 1443.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1482.7, a move above could see prices testing 1495.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1443.7-1495.1.
* Nickel prices gained as supply remains tight and LME inventory has fallen from an April peak, mainly due to disruptions
* Support also seen demand of nickel from stainless steel sector still exists amid tight nickel supply.
* The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits declined further last week

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.73% at 205.8 after data showed that China's social inventories of aluminium across eight consumption areas fell 26,000 mt on the week to 732,000 mt as of August 5. The decrease was mainly due to the low arrivals in Gongyi and Hainan. The arrivals in Henan was also affected by the inefficient truck transportation in the pandemic. The outbound quantity of aluminium billet decreased 7,100 mt or 13.4% to 46,100 mt last week, as downstream purchase was quiet amid the surging aluminium prices. The stocks of aluminium billet in five major consumption areas increased by 4,200 mt to 103,200 mt from the previous week, a slight increase of 4.2%. Asia's factories hit a rough patch in July as rising input costs and a new wave of coronavirus infections overshadowed solid global demand, highlighting the fragile nature of the region's recovery. Manufacturing activity rose in export powerhouses Japan and South Korea, though firms suffered from supply chain disruptions and raw material shortages that pushed up costs. China's factory activity growth slipped sharply in July as demand contracted for the first time in over a year, a private survey showed, broadly aligning with an official survey showing a slowdown in activity. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.39% to settled at 2124 while prices up 1.5 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 204.9 and below same could see a test of 204 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 206.4, a move above could see prices testing 207.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 204-207.
* Aluminium gains after data showed that China's social inventories of aluminium fell 26,000 mt on the week to 732,000 mt.
* The outbound quantity of aluminium billet decreased 7,100 mt or 13.4% to 46,100 mt last week
* Asian factory activity hit by rising costs, Delta variant

Mentha oil 

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.41% at 941 as average yield in Barabanki is improved by 5-6 kgs per acre due to better weather. Pressure seen arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Last week, prices rallied. The Lucknow-based Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants estimates that this adverse effect of rains on the crop is expected to reduce production by 30% in the last two weeks. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. Last month, support seen due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field. The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting. Due to drowning in the water, the rows have started to wither. With the harvesting of the crop, oil extraction work has also started. However upside seen limited In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -5.9 Rupees to end at 1051.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.18% to settled at 1125 while prices down -13.5 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 935.4 and below same could see a test of 929.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 950.3, a move above could see prices testing 959.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 929.7-959.5.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -5.9 Rupees to end at 1051.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki improved
* Pressure seen arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions.
* The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting.

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 3.07% at 10119 amid concerns about global supplies on forecasts for unfavourable weather across a key U.S. producing region. The market is eyeing the U.S. Department of Agriculture monthly supply and demand report to be published next week for revisions to U.S. corn and soybean yields and global demand. Investors are worried about weather outlook across Midwest, which could threaten soybean crops. An estimate pegged the U.S. soybean harvest at 4.332 billion bushels with an average yield of 50.0 bushels per acre, slightly below most-recent USDA estimates. Argentine producers have sold 26.3 million tonnes of soybeans from the 2020/21 season, the Agriculture Ministry said, marking a 7.7% reduction in sales versus the same point in the previous season. Support also seen amid crop damage due to heavy rain have forced many soyabean farmers in Madhya Pradesh to shift to paddy cultivation this season, which may result in lower than normal production of the oilseed crop for the third time in a row. Madhya Pradesh production dropped to 49 lakh tonne in 2019-20 and marginally improved to about 51 lakh tonne the following year — much below the normal production of 65 lakh tonne. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 191 Rupees to 10253 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.22% to settled at 12290 while prices up 301 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 9844 and below same could see a test of 9570 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 10356, a move above could see prices testing 10594.

Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 9570-10594.
* Soyabean remained supported amid concerns about global supplies on forecasts for unfavourable weather across a key U.S. producing region.
* Support also seen amid crop damage due to heavy rain have forced many soyabean farmers in Madhya Pradesh to shift to paddy
* The market is eyeing the USDA monthly supply and demand report next week for revisions to U.S. corn and soybean yields and global demand.
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  191 Rupees to 10253 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.64% at 1406.4 as prices seen supported by lingering concerns over tight supply. However upside seen limited as about 164.43 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to normal of corresponding week (159.16 lakh ha). Thus 5.28 lakh ha more area has covered compared to normal of corresponding week. China raised its forecast on imports of edible oils in 2020/21 marketing year, on increase of palm oil and sunflower oil shipments, the country's agriculture ministry said. China's 2020/21 edible oils imports were seen at 10.23 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from last month's forecast, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in its monthly crop report. Estimates on output, planting acreage and imports of corn, soybeans and cotton in the 2021/22 year remain unchanged from a month ago, according to the ministry. China's soybean acreage in 2021/22 year was seen at 9.347 million hectares, down 5.4% from 9.882 million hectares in the previous year, according to the report. India has slashed the base import price of palm oil and soyoil, the government said in a statement, as prices fell in the overseas market. India exported 5.31 lakh tonnes of oilmeals in the first two months of the fiscal 2021-22 against 3.50 lakh tonnes in the same period a year ago, recording a growth of 52 per cent. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1410.75 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.26% to settled at 22230 while prices up 9 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1398 and below same could see a test of 1388 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1414, a move above could see prices testing 1420.

Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1388-1420.
* Ref soyoil gained as prices seen supported by lingering concerns over tight supply.
* However upside seen limited as overall area for oilseed covered to 164.43 lakh ha area more by 5.28 lakh ha.
* China's 2020/21 edible oils imports were seen at 10.23 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from last month's forecast
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1410.75 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 0.57% at 1139.7 lifted by forecasts showing tight supply, lower production in July and hopes of a rise in August exports. Malaysia's palm oil stockpile at the end of July likely expanded to its highest in 10 months, as a drop in exports offset a decline in production. Inventories in the world's second-largest palm oil producer are seen rising for a fifth month, up 1.6% to 1.64 million tonnes from June. Production is pegged to fall for the first time in five months, defying hopes for stronger output amid the peak production months. Output is seen shrinking 4% to 1.54 million tonnes, its lowest since April. Exports are forecast to decline 4.2% to 1.36 million tonnes, after cargo surveyors reported a large decline in shipments to the world's largest palm oil buyer, India, which is turning to cheaper exports from Indonesia. However, harvesting has been affected by labor shortage as oil palm estates dependent on foreign workers struggle with a shortage of manpower amid Covid-19. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for July fell between 5.0% and 7.7% from June, cargo surveyors said. Also, data showed palm oil imports into the EU fell to 306,297 tonnes in the 2021/2022 season from 567,372 tonnes in the previous season. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 8.8 Rupees to end at 1177.9 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.12% to settled at 5780 while prices up 6.5 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1129.8 and below same could see a test of 1120 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1145.2, a move above could see prices testing 1150.8.

Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1120-1150.8.
* Crude palm oil gained lifted by forecasts showing tight supply, lower production in July and hopes of a rise in August exports.
* Malaysia's July stocks seen up 1.6% at 1.64 mln T - survey
* Output seen down 4% at 1.54 mln T – survey
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 8.8 Rupees to end at 1189.5 Rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -0.41% at 7858 on profit booking after prices seen supported as production in Canada in 2021 expected to drop by 1.7 million tons to 16.9 million tons. Mustard arrivals in its major producing states i.e. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat improved. As per sources, estimated mustard crushing during June 2021 stood at 6 lakh tonnes, lower by 33% compared to 9 lakh tonnes last month it is also lower by 25% against 8 lakh tonnes in June 2020. Further negative crush margin for mustard seed also discouraged crushing activity and further reduced buying interest for mustard seed. India’s Rapeseed meal exports fell by 46% to 0.97 lakh tonnes on M-o-M basis during May-2021. However mustard meal exports were higher by 66% as compared to same period last year. In 2022-22 marketing year (Mar-Feb), total arrivals reported were up by 309% as compared to the arrivals during the corresponding period last year. As per USDA in its June-21 update, World Mustard seed production for 2021-22 is estimated to increase by 4% at 741 lakh tonnes. The beginning stock estimated to fall by 25% to 57 lakh tonnes. Total consumption estimated to remain same around last year and ending stocks are also estimated to be lower by 1% at 57 lakh tonnes. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -77.25 Rupees to end at 7865.75 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.64% to settled at 23190 while prices down -32 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 7792 and below same could see a test of 7727 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7931, a move above could see prices testing 8005.

Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 7727-8005.
* Mustard seed dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported as production in Canada in 2021 expected to drop by 1.7 million tons to 16.9 million tons.
* Mustard arrivals in its major producing states i.e. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat improved.
* In 2022-22 marketing year (Mar-Feb), total arrivals reported were up by 309% as compared to the arrivals during the corresponding period last year.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -77.25 Rupees to end at 7865.75 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 3.4% at 7670 as turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains. Support also seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. Further there is expectation of increase in Turmeric sowings in some areas were the key factors that dented market sentiments in the month of June. As the lockdown restrictions were eased in the month of June, the key Turmeric growing states, including Maharashtra and Telangana reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals, which augmented physical market supplies and pressurized prices. Mandi arrivals of Turmeric, at all-India level, more than doubled in June 2021 compared to the previous month supported by substantial increase in arrivals in Maharashtra and Telangana. Mandi arrivals had remained sluggish in April and May due to closure of mandis in many regions on account of festival season and Covid related lockdown restrictions. According to the statistics of the Department of Commerce, Government of India, the highest number of 1.84 lakh tonnes of turmeric was exported during the last financial year 2020-21. The export of turmeric is highest in the months of May, June and July. After the relaxation of the lockdown in some states, spot prices have started increasing in Erode and Nanded mandis last week. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7385.25 Rupees gained 50.75 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -23.88% to settled at 6360 while prices up 252 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7508 and below same could see a test of 7344 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7768, a move above could see prices testing 7864.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7344-7864.
* Turmeric prices seen supported as turmeric crops were severely damaged due to heavy rains.
* Support also seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
* Further there is expectation of increase in Turmeric sowings in some areas
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7385.25 Rupees gained 50.75 Rupees.

 

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.16% at 13460 as only 45-50 percent of the total production has come to the market. There is also uncertainty of the lockdown over a possible third wave of Covid and low demand from the hotel industry. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level more than doubled in June 2021 compared to the previous month following increased arrivals in Gujarat as well as Rajasthan. As per preliminary estimates suggested that carryover stocks of Jeera are likely to be around of about 20-25 Lakh bags (of 55 Kg each), i.e., 1.10 to 1.30 lakh tonnes which are higher than usual range of 7-12 Lakh bags. However, after accounting for wastage, and increased exports, market participants are expecting carryover stocks to be around 0.65-0.70 lakh tonnes. It may be noted that during the FY 2020-21 Jeera exports stood at 2.98 lakh tonnes, 39% higher over the previous year. As per sources, export demand for Jeera is expected to recover as close competitors of India in terms of exporting Jeera, viz., Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. It has been reported that production in Syria is likely to be lower because of political instability and in Turkey is also likely to be lower compared to previous year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -9.65 Rupees to end at 13673.7 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.95% to settled at 4134 while prices up 155 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13350 and below same could see a test of 13235 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13550, a move above could see prices testing 13635.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13235-13635.
* Jeera prices gained as only 45-50 percent of the total production has come to the market.
* However upside seen limited due to the uncertainty of the lockdown over a possible third wave of Covid and low demand from the hotel industry.
* As per preliminary estimates suggested that carryover stocks of Jeera are likely to be around of about 20-25 Lakh
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -9.65 Rupees to end at 13673.7 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.85% at 26810 as Cotton sowing across the country has picked up with the revival of monsoon in several states, after seeing a lull in the month of July due to a dry spell. Sowing in the north is almost complete with Punjab reporting a slight dip. The sowing has been normal in Haryana while Rajasthan and Gujarat had reported dry spells. There has been a dip in Maharashtra since farmers shifted to other crops like soybean and groundnut, but some pick up is likely in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. According to the agriculture ministry’s estimates, cotton acreages till July 29 was 110.73 lh compared with the previous year’s 121.25 lh, lower by 8.68 %. In north India, the acreage is 17 %, while in central India the deficit is 5.33 %. In the south, the acreage is lower by 12.6%. The lower acreage is largely attributed to delayed rains. But with kapas prices ruling at Rs 8000 per quintal, sowing is expected to continue till August-end across various states including Andhra, Telangana, Gujarat, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. According to industry body Cotton Association of India (CAI), sowing has been completed on 112 lh as compared to 118 lh in the same period last year. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -90 Rupees to end at 27230 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.1% to settled at 5275 while prices down -230 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 26660 and below same could see a test of 26520 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 26990, a move above could see prices testing 27180.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 26520-27180.
* Cotton prices dropped as Cotton sowing across the country has picked up with the revival of monsoon in several states.
* According to the agriculture ministry’s estimates, cotton acreages was 110.73 lh compared with the previous year’s 121.25 lh, lower by 8.68 %.
* According to CAI, sowing has been completed on 112 lh as compared to 118 lh in the same period last year.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -90 Rupees to end at 27230 Rupees.

Chana

Chana yesterday settled down by -0.32% at 4966 as the production of pulses has been increasing during the last three years (2018-19 to 2020-21) and the target for 2021-2022 has been set at 23 LMT (lakh million tonnes) from the 19.5 LMT for 2020-2021, the Parliament was informed. Data from the government showed that all India production of pulses during 2016-17 to 2020-21 -- all numbers in '000 tonnes -- was 23,130.94 for 2016-17, 25,415.92 for 2017-18, 22,075.96 for 2018-19, 23,025.25 for 2019-20, and for 2020-21, it is projected at 25,575.69, as per the 3rd advance estimates. India is likely to receive an average amount of rainfall in August and September, the state-run weather office said, raising expectations of higher crop yields in Asia's third-biggest economy, which relies heavily on the vast farm sector. "As per most parameters, we expect monsoon rains to be normal in August and September this year," Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of the state-run India Meteorological Department (IMD), told a news conference. All over Pulses crop area seen at about 108.87 lakh ha compared to normal of corresponding week (110.68 lakh ha). Thus 2.81 lakh ha less area has been covered compared to normal of corresponding week. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -83.45 Rupees to end at 4900 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.09% to settled at 70220 while prices down -16 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4935 and below same could see a test of 4905 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5001, a move above could see prices testing 5037.

Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4905-5037.
* Chana prices seen under pressure as the production of pulses has been increasing during the last three years
* The target for 2021-2022 has been set at 23 LMT (lakh million tonnes) from the 19.5 LMT for 2020-2021, the Parliament was informed.
* India is likely to receive an average amount of rainfall in August and September, the state-run weather office said
* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -83.45 Rupees to end at 4900 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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