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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.3% at 59895 as the dollar shed ground as risk sentiment improved amid receding worries about the global banking sector. The financial turmoil, which started earlier in March with the collapse of two regional banks, has prompted investors to reprice expectations of future monetary tightening by the US central bank. Investors welcomed reports that First Citizens BankShares agreed to buy significant holdings of Silicon Valley Bank, while CNBC reported that outflows from small institutions to banking giants have slowed. Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25 basis point rate hike and hinted at only one more increase. Still, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that officials didn’t see rate cuts for 2023 and were prepared to prolong their tightening cycle if needed. Sales of gold coins under the US Mint's American Eagle program have fallen back from levels seen in January as well as February 2022. Sales of gold totaled 48,000 ounces for February 2023. The lower sales figures come on the backdrop of a tough month for precious metals prices, with gold experiencing a sharp pullback earlier in February. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong in February rose by about 192% from the previous month, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.37% to settle at 18537 while prices are up 182 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 59580 and below same could see a test of 59266 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 60088, a move above could see prices testing 60282.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 59266-60282.
* Gold gains as the dollar shed ground
* The American economy expanded an annualized 2.6% on quarter in the last three months of 2022
* Commerzbank sees gold falling to around $1,900 in coming months

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 1.41% at 71774 as the dollar index fell further amid easing fears over global banking turmoil. Meantime, the Federal Reserve signaled a final one-quarter-point interest rate increase in its tightening cycle. Elsewhere, a probe into tax fraud and money laundering found major French banks suspect of dividend stripping, adding to the confidence crisis in the European banking sector. On the supply side, steady outflows in bullion inventories supported the metal's price. Sales of silver coins under the US Mint's American Eagle program have fallen back from levels seen in January as well as February 2022. Sales of silver totaled 900,000 ounces for February 2023. The lower sales figures come on the backdrop of a tough month for precious metals prices, with silver experiencing a sharp pullback earlier in February. Pending home sales in the US were up 0.8% month-over-month in February of 2023 to the highest level since August, following an 8.1% jump in January and beating market forecasts of a 2.3% fall. Sales rose for a third consecutive month, in a sign the housing sector’s contraction is coming to an end. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.17% to settle at 14914 while prices are up 997 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 71090 and below same could see a test of 70407 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 72278, a move above could see prices testing 72783.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 70407-72783.
* Silver rose as the dollar index fell further
* Federal Reserve signaled a final one-quarter-point interest rate increase in its tightening cycle.
* On the supply side, steady outflows in bullion inventories supported the metal's price.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.26% at 6093 as fears ease about a global banking crisis and as a halt in exports from Iraq's Kurdistan region curbs supplies. OPEC+ is likely to stick to its existing deal to cut oil output at a meeting on Monday, after oil prices recovered following a drop to 15-month lows. U.S. crude oil imports fell to 5.325 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, their lowest level since March 2021, the Energy Information Administration said. Weekly U.S. commercial crude oil imports, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell by 847,000 bpd in the week ended March 24, down sharply from 6.172 million bpd in the prior week. U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell unexpectedly last week while gasoline inventories also drew down and distillates stocks rose, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories fell by 7.5 million barrels in the week to March 24 to 473.7 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 100,000-barrel rise. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 1.6 million barrels last week, the EIA said. Refinery crude runs rose by 437,000 barrels per day in the last week, and refinery utilization rates rose by 1.7 percentage points in the week. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.91% to settle at 6656 while prices are up 76 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6027 and below same could see a test of 5962 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6136, a move above could see prices testing 6180.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5962-6180.
* Crude oil gains as a halt in exports from Iraq's Kurdistan region curbs supplies.
* OPEC+ unlikely to tweak oil policy in Monday talks
* Saudi Arabia's energy minister has said OPEC+ will stick to the reduced target until the end of the year.

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -4.37% at 175.2 on rising output and mild weather forecasts that should allow utilities to start injecting gas into storage at the beginning of April. That price decline came even though the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants was on track to hit a monthly record high in March after Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas exited an eight-month outage in February. Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 98.6 bcfd so far in March, up from 98.1 bcfd in February. The monthly record is 99.9 bcfd in November 2022. With warmer spring-like weather expected to reduce the amount of gas burned to heat homes and businesses, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 110.5 bcfd this week to 104.5 bcfd next week. Mild winter weather allowed utilities to leave more gas in storage so far this year and should let them start injecting fuel into inventories at the beginning of April. Gas stockpiles were about 23% above their five-year average (2018-2022) during the week ended March 17 and were expected to end about 21% above normal during the colder-than-normal week ended March 24. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 11.89% to settle at 46618 while prices are down -8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 172.5 and below same could see a test of 169.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 179.6, a move above could see prices testing 184.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 169.8-184.
* Natural gas fell on rising output and mild weather forecasts
* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 98.5 bcfd so far in March from 98.1 bcfd in February.
* Working stocks in underground storage amounted to 1,900 billion cubic feet on March 17, the highest for the time of year since 2020

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.27% at 779.55 amid easing worries about banking stresses and falling inventories but firm U.S. dollar and economic uncertainty limited the upside. Top metals consumer China's factory activity likely grew at a slower pace in March, suggesting the economic recovery is uneven in the light of weak global demand and a property slump. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by SHFE were down 11.6% last Friday, falling for a fourth consecutive week to 161,152 tonnes. China's top copper smelters agreed on a guide price for treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) for copper concentrate processing in the second quarter of 2023 at $90 per tonne and 9.0 cents per pound. The new prices are lower than the guidance for the charges set at $93 per tonne and 9.3 cents per pound for the first quarter this year. The world's refined copper market had a 103,000 tonne surplus in January, compared with a 10,000 tonnes surplus the previous month, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. World refined copper output was 2.27 million tonnes and consumption was 2.16 million tonnes, the ICSG said. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.47% to settle at 3841 while prices are up 2.1 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 776.1 and below same could see a test of 772.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 782.4, a move above could see prices testing 785.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 772.5-785.1.
* Copper gains amid easing worries about banking stresses and falling inventories
* China's factory activity likely grew at a slower pace in March
* China smelter group sets copper TC/RC guide price for Q2 2023 at $90/T

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.84% at 258.45 amid an uncertain global economic outlook. Inflation is high, central banks are expected to keep tightening monetary policy and the speed of China's economic recovery has been disappointing. As these headwinds ease, however, there are growing expectations that the market could tighten, adding that this may be exacerbated by the low level of inventories. Chinese spot treatment charges for zinc concentrate slipped from their highest in more than two years in March and will likely fall further on high smelter utilisation rates and a demand recovery in its biggest consuming market. An over-supplied zinc concentrate market in China had pushed spot treatment charges (TCs) to 5,100 yuan ($742) a tonne in January-February, as miners were prepared to pay more for smelters to process the excess of material into refined metal. SHFE inventories of refined zinc surged 582% from December 2022 to 123,894 tonnes by March 10, exchange data showed, correlating with the ramp-up at smelters. The global zinc market deficit fell to 18,300 tonnes in January from a revised deficit of 80,300 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 100,500 tonnes in December. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -9.66% to settle at 2515 while prices are down -2.2 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 256.9 and below same could see a test of 255.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 260.9, a move above could see prices testing 263.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 255.4-263.4.
* Zinc falls amid an uncertain global economic outlook
* China's zinc treatment charges fall from multi – year high as smelters ramp up
* Global zinc market deficit slides to 18,300 T in January – ILZSG

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.17% at 208.55 as domestic aluminium ingot social inventory fell rapidly as downstream consumption continued to pick up. On the fundamentals, the resumption of production by aluminium smelters in Sichuan, Guizhou and other places has led to a slight recovery on the supply side. The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets stood at 1.13 million mt as of March 23, down 85,000 mt from a week ago and 47,000 mt from Monday March 20. The figure, albeit up 85,000 mt from the same period last year, has fallen 143,000 mt from the peak recorded in early March. Stocks across three major markets dropped sharply, led by south China, where fewer cargoes arrived following output cuts by smelters earlier while demand recovered. After two weeks of accumulation, the domestic aluminium billet social inventory dipped 1,500 mt from a week ago to 167,900 mt as of March 23. Stable aluminium billet production ensured smooth arrivals. The imports of unwrought aluminium alloy stood at 81,000 mt in January 2023, down 30.5% year-on-year and 12.3% month-on-month, according to General Administration of Customs. Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell by 2.6% to 382,400 tonnes at the end of February from 392,500 tonnes at the end of January. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.08% to settle at 3010 while prices are up 0.35 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 208 and below same could see a test of 207.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 209.2, a move above could see prices testing 209.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 207.3-209.7.
* Aluminum gains as China’s aluminium ingot social inventory fell
* Japan aluminium stocks down 2.6% in Feb from Jan
* The output for the months of January and February 2023 was 6.5 million tonnes, an increase of 5.3% on year

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled flat at 1004.5 on short covering after prices dropped as demand was poor due to recession fears and global banking turmoil. The collapse of California’s Silicon Valley Bank and troubles at Swiss lender Credit Suisse have shaken the financial markets and dampened the outlook for oil consumption. Market participants expect prices to remain under pressure until demand recovers and market sentiment improves. Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes as compared to 2,335.63 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 171.07 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 36.32%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 1.1 Rupees to end at 1179.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settle at 765 while prices are remain unchanged 0 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1002 and below same could see a test of 999.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1008, a move above could see prices testing 1011.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 999.5-1011.5.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 1.1 Rupees to end at 1179.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained on short covering after prices dropped as demand was poor due to recession fears and global banking turmoil.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes
* In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes was exported against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.04% at 6826 as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices. In AP (Nizamabad) Turmeric market around 5,000-7,000 bags are arriving on an average daily basis. In the Erode spot market 400-600 bags are reported on a daily basis, In the Sangli district it is around 3500-7000 bags. Coupled with weak demand in the export and domestic market prices are trading at lower levels (in the current season). Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2023, rose by 7.76 percent at 1,36,492.59 tonnes as compared to 1,26,659.01 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,039.57 tonnes in December 2022 showing a rise of 3.69%. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 10,558.26 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 18.24%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6901.05 Rupees dropped -76.7 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -9.18% to settle at 9550 while prices are down -72 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6782 and below same could see a test of 6736 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6896, a move above could see prices testing 6964.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6736-6964.
* Turmeric dropped as turmeric harvesting has started and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks.
* Farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6901.05 Rupees dropped -76.7 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.05% at 35430 on profit booking after prices rose as unfavorable weather conditions affecting supply from main producing areas. This year, there is a stock deficit, lesser output, and increased export demand for jeera. Cumin harvests in Gujarat are now higher than last year, but recent rains are projected to lower yields by at least 20%. Gujarat produced 2.15 lakh metric tonnes (MT) of cumin in 2023. Currently, over 30% of Gujarat's crop remains unharvested in the districts of Kutch and Banaskantha. Due to unseasonal rain in certain regions, a portion of this crop is likely to be damaged or of low quality. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 354.15 Rupees to end at 34373.65 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.52% to settle at 5238 while prices are down -375 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 35000 and below same could see a test of 34565 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 35980, a move above could see prices testing 36525.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 34565-36525.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices rose as unfavorable weather conditions affecting supply.
* Support also seen amid a stock deficit, lesser output, and increased export demand for jeera
* Cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 354.15 Rupees to end at 34373.65 Rupees per 100 kg.

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