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Gold

Gold displayed a notable upswing, registering a gain of 0.36% to reach a settlement of 59478. This price surge was primarily attributed to traders strategically positioning themselves in anticipation of forthcoming U.S. economic indicators. These indicators have the potential to significantly influence the probability of another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The decrease in U.S. job openings witnessed in July, approaching levels akin to those before the pandemic, kindled hopes that the Federal Reserve could combat inflation without provoking a substantial uptick in unemployment. The sentiment of a possible pause in the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes was further bolstered by disappointing economic statistics. Revised GDP figures unveiled that the U.S. economy's growth rate during the second quarter was lower than previously estimated.  The first half of the year witnessed central banks acquiring a record-breaking 387 tons of gold, despite the deceleration observed in the second quarter. The formidable start in the first quarter solidified the achievement of a record-breaking first half. From a technical perspective, the market displayed signs of short covering. This was evident from the reduction in open interest by -0.16%, settling at 12403, while prices surged by 212 rupees.  In terms of technical levels to monitor, a potential support level exists at 59320, with the possibility of testing 59165 below this. On the upside, a resistance level is projected at 59590, with the prospect of prices reaching 59705 if they surpass this threshold.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 59165-59705.
* Gold gains as U.S. Q2 GDP comes in below expectations
* U.S. job openings dropped in July to approach pre-pandemic levels
* More disappointing economic data boosted hopes of a pause in interest rate hikes by Fed.


Silver
Silver witnessed a marginal decline, closing down by -0.21% at 76280, driven by profit booking after a recent price surge. The rally had been supported by weaker-than-expected economic data from the U.S., which bolstered speculations about the conclusion of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Furthermore, the metal received a boost from a weaker dollar and lower U.S. Treasury yields, propelling it to attain one-month highs. Notably, the most recent data releases depicted a subdued expansion of the world's largest economy during the second quarter, falling short of initial projections. Concurrently, private job growth in the U.S. retreated to a 5-month low. Conversely, German inflation experienced only a modest deceleration, while Spain's inflation accelerated.  Market participants are now focused on upcoming events, including the release of the U.S. PCE price index – a key inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve – on Thursday, followed by the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. These releases are anticipated to provide further insights into the potential trajectory of monetary policy. The Eurozone's inflation data, scheduled for Thursday, along with the U.S. jobs report on Friday, are poised to offer crucial indications of the future monetary policy direction. From a technical perspective, the market demonstrated signs of fresh selling pressure. Open interest increased by 7.8%, settling at 16391, while prices declined by -160 rupees. This interaction between open interest and price movements underscores the evolving market dynamics.
Trading Ideas:
# Silver trading range for the day is 75375-77655.
# Silver dropped on profit bookinga after seen supported as underpinned by weaker-than-expected US economic data
# The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note sank to the 4.1% mark, the lowest in three weeks
# The latest releases showed the world's largest economy expanded less than projected in the second quarter



Crude oil experienced a gain of 0.46%, closing at 6735, following the release of Energy Information Administration (EIA) data that unveiled a larger-than-anticipated drawdown in weekly crude inventories, aligning with the American Petroleum Institute (API) report. Notably, U.S. crude oil inventories registered a substantial decline of 10.584 million barrels during the week ending August 25, 2023. This surpassed market predictions for a drawdown of 3.267 million barrels. Furthermore, crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub contracted by 1.504 million barrels, succeeding a 3.133 million barrel reduction in the previous week.  The presence of a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico amplified concerns of potential supply disruptions, maintaining a sense of unease among investors. The Gulf of Mexico region accounts for approximately 15% of U.S. oil production and 5% of natural gas output, as reported by the EIA.  In addition, crude oil, along with other risk assets, received a boost from a weakening dollar. From a technical standpoint, the market exhibited signs of short covering, characterized by a decrease of -6.43% in open interest, settling at 4628, coupled with a price increase of 31 rupees. This confluence of declining open interest and rising prices suggests evolving market dynamics. In terms of technical levels, Crudeoil finds support at 6691, with potential for a test of 6647 below this level. Conversely, resistance is anticipated at 6777, with the possibility of prices testing 6819 in the event of an upward movement.

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6647-6819.
* Crude oil gains after EIA data showed a larger-than-expected weekly crude inventory draw.
* Crude stockpiles fell by 10.584 million barrels in the last week to 422.9 million barrels
* A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico also stoked fears of supply disruptions, keeping investors on edge.


Natural gas
Natural gas surged by 4.29% to settle at 228.5, primarily driven by forecasts of hotter weather conditions. Traders were also assessing the potential impact of Hurricane Idalia, which could lead to decreased demand for the fuel. The hurricane's anticipated power outages for over a million homes and businesses are likely to reduce both power and gas consumption in the coming days. Notably, Hurricane Idalia has the potential to disrupt energy demand, particularly in Florida. In 2022, Florida consumed around 4.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas, with a significant portion (approximately 3.8 bcfd) used for power generation. Refinitiv, a data provider, reported that average gas production in the lower 48 U.S. states declined to 101.1 bcfd in August, down from 101.8 bcfd in July. This decrease aligns with the current trend of reduced gas output, potentially reaching a preliminary two-month low of 99.2 bcfd due to reduced production in states like Colorado, North Dakota, and West Virginia. From a technical standpoint, the market showcased signs of short covering. Open interest decreased by -36.2%, settling at 27490, while prices rose by 9.4 rupees. This combination of declining open interest and rising prices suggests evolving market dynamics. Looking at technical levels, Naturalgas finds support at 222.4, with the potential for a test of 216.4 if this level is breached. Conversely, resistance is anticipated at 231.8, and prices may test 235.2 if an upward movement occurs.

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 216.4-235.2.
* Natural gas rose on hotter weather forecasts
* Traders assessed the impact from Hurricane Idalia that could lead to lower demand for the fuel.
* Average gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states fell to 101.1 bcfd so far in August, down from 101.8 bcfd in July.



Copper
Copper edged up by 0.12% to close at 737.95, driven by multiple factors that influenced market sentiment. The weakening dollar, propelled by discouraging U.S. private payrolls data, played a role in boosting copper prices. Moreover, renewed efforts to support China's struggling property sector contributed to the positive sentiment in the market. A significant development affecting copper prices was the rise of the Yangshan copper premium to its highest level since December 2022, reaching $52 a ton. This increase was driven by the price differential between London and Shanghai, which presented an opportunity for profitable metal shipments to China. Additionally, China's measures to bolster its stock market, including the reduction of stamp duty, contributed to an overall improvement in risk sentiment across various financial assets. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a deficit of 90,000 metric tons in the global refined copper market for June, marking an increase from the 58,000 metric tons deficit in May. However, the market experienced a surplus of 213,000 metric tons for the first half of the year, in contrast to a deficit of 196,000 metric tons during the same period the previous year. From a technical standpoint, fresh buying activity was observed, with open interest rising by 1.12% to settle at 5218. This uptick in open interest accompanied a minor price increase of 0.85 rupees. Looking ahead, Copper finds support at 736.2, with the possibility of testing 734.4 if this level is breached. Conversely, resistance is anticipated at 739.3, and prices may test 740.6 if an upward movement occurs.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 734.4-740.6.
* Copper gains as dropped in wake of more weak U.S. data
* Yangshan copper premium touched its highest since December 2022 at $52 a ton
* Refined copper market June deficit at 90,000 metric tons


Zinc
Zinc closed with a modest increase of 0.07%, settling at 217.75. This upswing was fueled by positive expectations of heightened demand from China's construction sector during its seasonally robust period. An additional factor contributing to zinc's price support was the notable rise in cancelled zinc warrants, which indicates metal allocated for delivery.  The industrial metals market is currently focused on China's manufacturing sector, a significant driver of industrial metals demand. Purchasing managers' surveys (PMIs) scheduled for Thursday and Friday will offer insights into the sector's performance, with expectations leaning toward a fifth consecutive month of contraction.  On the supply side, zinc inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange demonstrated a noteworthy decrease of 20.2%, reaching a seven-month low. Analyzing the broader context, the global zinc market exhibited a surplus of 76,000 metric tons in June, marking an increase from the previous month's 67,000 tons. This data, sourced from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), provides a perspective on the market's balance between supply and demand. From a technical perspective, the market displayed signs of short covering as open interest decreased by -2.43%, reaching 3618, while prices saw a slight uptick of 0.15 rupees. This interplay between reduced open interest and higher prices indicates evolving market dynamics. In terms of key levels, support for zinc is expected at 217, with the potential to test 216.2 if this level is breached. Conversely, resistance is anticipated at 218.9, and prices may test 220 if an upward movement materializes.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 216.2-220.
* Zinc climbed on hopes for stronger demand from China's construction sector.
* A rise in cancelled zinc warrants at nearly 20% compared with 2% last week was also supporting zinc prices.
* Industrial metals markets are awaiting surveys of PMIs in China's manufacturing sector.


Aluminium

Aluminium concluded with a substantial gain of 0.9%, closing at 200.75. This uptick was primarily driven by China's strategic measures to bolster both its housing and stock markets, coinciding with the imminent release of manufacturing sector data. To invigorate the housing market, China's central bank introduced guidelines aimed at easing residential housing loan regulations, with the goal of stimulating loan applications and property acquisitions. In support of these efforts, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) lowered its one-year loan prime rate by 10 basis points to a historic low of 3.45% on August 21. The resulting ramifications, combined with a widening interest rate differential, exerted additional pressure on the Chinese yuan. Examining production dynamics, China's domestic aluminium output in July 2023 spanned 3.568 million metric tons, indicating a year-on-year surge of 1.95%. Notably, the average daily production during July experienced a month-on-month increase, surpassing 3,000 metric tons and reaching approximately 115,100 metric tons. From a technical standpoint, the market exhibited signs of short covering, evidenced by a reduction in open interest by -4.89% to settle at 4046. Simultaneously, prices witnessed an uptick of 1.8 rupees. This dynamic interaction between diminishing open interest and rising prices underscores the evolving market sentiment. Regarding key levels, Aluminium is expected to find support at 199.3, and if breached, could potentially test 197.9 levels. Conversely, resistance is anticipated at 201.7, with the possibility of prices exploring the 202.7 mark in the event of an upward movement.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 197.9-202.7.
* Aluminium gains after China moved to boost its struggling housing markets
* China's July aluminium production up 1.95% YoY at 3.568 million mt.
* Jan-Jul aluminium output grows 2.7% YoY to 23.676 million mt.


Cottoncandy
Cottoncandy witnessed a modest uptick of 0.34%, closing at 59780, primarily driven by concerns over diminished production. In the state of Gujarat, sowing exhibited an encouraging growth of nearly 5%, encompassing 2,679,299.00 hectares compared to the previous year's sown area of 2,545,105.00 hectares. However, India's overall cotton sowing for the year 2023 experienced a decline of approximately -1.82%, amounting to 122.56 lakh hectares, compared to 124.82 lakh hectares sown in 2022. Notably, the current cotton season, commencing in October of the previous year, has witnessed cotton arrivals crossing 318 lakh bales, as reported by the Cotton Corporation of India and corroborated by the Southern India Mills’ Association (SIMA). It's crucial to highlight the broader backdrop of India's monsoon situation. The country is poised to experience its lowest monsoon rainfall in eight years, primarily due to the anticipated impact of El Niño weather patterns. Shifting focus to the market dynamics, in the major spot market of Rajkot, Cottoncandy's price concluded at 28807.3 Rupees, experiencing a slight dip of -0.02%. From a technical perspective, the market exhibited signs of fresh buying, manifesting in a 1.59% uptick in open interest to settle at 64. Correspondingly, prices recorded an ascent of 200 rupees. Crucial levels to observe encompass support at 59760, with the potential for testing 59740 levels if this level is breached. Conversely, resistance is anticipated at 59800, with a move above it potentially leading to prices testing 59820.

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 59740-59820.
* Cotton rose amid fears of lower production.
* In Gujarat, sowing grows by nearly 5% with 2,679,299.00 hectares
* Cotton arrivals so far during the current season that started in October last year has crossed 318 lakh bales
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 28807.3 Rupees dropped by -0.02 percent.


Turmeric
Turmeric witnessed a notable increase of 1.16%, closing at 14458. This rise can be attributed to limited availability of quality produce in the market. The ongoing sowing activities and crop progress play a significant role in influencing turmeric prices. However, concerns have arisen due to the forecast of drier weather in the southern and central regions, potentially impacting the turmeric crops. While sowing activities are nearly complete in Maharashtra, they are expected to pick up in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. The looming threat of El Nino is casting a shadow over the upcoming turmeric crop. Predictions from meteorological sources indicate the activation of El Nino in July, leading to potential reductions in rainfall and the emergence of drought conditions. Exports of turmeric during Apr-Jun 2023 experienced a significant increase of 16.87%, totaling 57,775.30 tonnes compared to the 49,435.38 tonnes exported during the same period in 2022. This export growth adds another layer of complexity to the turmeric market dynamics. The concerning outlook extends to India's monsoon performance. The nation is poised to experience its lowest monsoon rains in eight years due to the anticipated impact of El Nino, resulting in reduced September precipitation. From a technical perspective, the market is currently undergoing short covering. Open interest has witnessed a decrease of -0.81%, settling at 15285, while prices have risen by 166 rupees. Key support levels to watch include 13968, with potential resistance at 14790. An upward move could potentially lead to prices testing 15122.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13478-15122.
* Turmeric prices gained amid limited availability of quality produce in the market.
* India exported only 18.3 thousand tonnes in June’23 as compared to 18.5 thousand tonnes of previous year.
* Domestic demand remained subdued as most of the arrivals arrived are inferior quality that will keep profit booking intact in turmeric.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13884.3 Rupees dropped by -2.92 percent.


Jeera
Jeera exhibited a modest uptick of 0.32%, closing at 53665, primarily driven by short covering following a previous drop attributed to improved global supply conditions. Despite this, the downside remains constrained due to limited supply resulting from the prevailing rainy environment. The availability of cheaper jeera from Syria and the global market could potentially lead to a decrease in export demand from India in the near future. Moreover, the anticipation of drier weather conditions in Gujarat is expected to result in increased arrivals, potentially capping any significant upward movement. Noteworthy dynamics are emerging from China's cumin imports and exports, causing temporary adjustments in cumin prices, including a recent $200 decline in the international market.  Jeera exports during the period of Apr-Jun 2023 recorded a substantial increase of 13.16%, reaching 53,399.65 tonnes, compared to 47,190.98 tonnes during Apr-Jun 2022. However, a drop of 59.81% was observed in June 2023, with 10,411.14 tonnes exported, down from 25,903.63 tonnes in May 2023. Similarly, June 2023 exports were lower by 51.78% compared to the same period in 2022. In the major spot market of Unjha, jeera's price concluded at 56190.2 Rupees, experiencing a decrease of -0.88 percent. From a technical perspective, the market is currently undergoing short covering. Open interest has witnessed a decrease of -4.81%, settling at 5994, while prices have increased by 170 rupees. Key support levels to monitor include 52780, with potential resistance at 54430. An upward move could potentially lead to prices testing 55190.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 51890-55190.
* Jeera gained  on short covering after prices dropped in wake of improved global supply condition.
* Cheaper availability of Syria and jeera in global market will lead to fall in export demand from India in coming days.
* However, downside seen limited as supply is limited due to the rainy environment.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 56190.2 Rupees dropped by -0.88 percent.

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