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Sensex (65087) / Nifty (19347)

The US stock markets did well overnight, and this positive trend was also seen in Asian markets in the morning. Following this, our markets started the day with a gap-up opening. However, there was no followup buying to the initial gains and for the major part of the day, Nifty remained within a very narrow range. Subsequently, during the penultimate hour, there was profit booking that extended towards the end, wiping out morning gains. Nifty eventually ended flat with no major change, a tad below the 19350 mark.

Yesterday's trading session proved to be disheartening for bulls, particularly concerning the key indices. Despite a strong initial start, prices struggled to maintain the upward trajectory, ultimately returning within the recent trading range and continuing with the choppy phase. From a technical perspective, not much has changed, however, if we meticulously observe the daily chart then it can be seen that prices are approaching the apex point of a 'Descending Trend line' resistance. This trend line is formed by connecting minor peaks from the all-time high. The resistance level associated with this trend line is situated around 19500. For any substantial upward momentum, the bulls must convincingly breach this level. On the contrary, 19200 has consistently acted as a robust support during August and remains a pivotal point for the monthly expiry. Anticipating an intriguing expiry session, it's worth noting that prices concluded at the midpoint of the trading range, spanning from 19200 to 19500. A notable market movement on the day of expiry could transpire if either boundary of this range is breached. Consequently, traders are advised to exercise caution and abstain from aggressive trading bets until a decisive breakout is observed on either side of the mentioned range.

Nifty Bank Outlook (44233)

With a slew of positive news globally, this rate-sensitive index started the day on a positive note. As the day progressed, there was no major traction during the first half, however, during the second half prices witnessed profit booking to fizzle out morning gains. Bank Nifty eventually ended the day at the lowest point with a loss of 0.59% tad at 44233.

Recently, the Bank Nifty has exhibited resilience by shielding the benchmark index against substantial sell-offs. Yesterday, however, the high-beta index had a negative impact, pulling down the Nifty from its higher levels. From a technical standpoint, there hasn't been a considerable shift, as prices remain range-bound. Nonetheless, the ongoing struggle of prices at higher levels raises concerns for the bullish sentiment. The range of 44800 to 45000 stands as a formidable resistance, while 44000 to 43800 is considered as sacrosanct support.

While the key indices continue to struggle, the Nifty midcap 100 index is enjoying its merry run as it marked fresh record highs. Traders can continue exploring stock-specific opportunities; however, they need to be very specific considering, the volatility is likely to be on the higher side on the expiry day.

The next significant market movement will only occur once this critical range is breached on either side. Consequently, traders are advised to closely monitor these aforementioned levels and operate within this range, particularly on the day of expiry.

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