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NIFTY 50: 14529.20 weekly change (-3.0%)

Observation

* NIFTY for the past 2 week has been forming a lower low lower high pattern after facing rejection near the 15430 mark.

* In the previous week the index not only broke but also closed below 15000 mark.

* On the indicator front the RSI (64.50) can be seen moving lower towards the 50 mark after forming a bearish hinge, indicating that the bears have taken control of the trend for the time being.

* The long term moving averages on the daily time frame are as follows 50 Day SMA (14444), 100 Day SMA (13479) and 200 Day SMA (12126). Currently the index can be seen holding the 50 DAY SMA and remains above the 100 and the 200 Day SMA.

* The key technical levels to watch for on the downside are 14467 (50% retracement level of the rise 13596-15431 and 50 Day SMA) and 14222 (18th Jan 2021 low) and 13596 (Swing low)

* On the upside the 14898 (Previous week low) is the key level to watch for, If the prices manage to move above this level we might see the index move higher towards the 15176 (Weekly High) followed by 15431 (All Time High)

Inference & Expectations

* NIFTY seems to be moving lower in a corrective phase for the past 2 week.

* The Long term charts show that the long term trend of the index continues to remain bullish. The Short and the medium term chart suggest that further correction might be possible.

* Currently the index is placed at a very crucial and a make or break level. If the index breaches the previous weekly low of 14467 which is a support cluster level we can expect the index to move lower.

* This correction might take the index lower towards the 14222 mark, followed by 13596 mark.

* We might consider the corrective phase to have come to an end if the index breaches and sustains above the 14898 mark. Beyond which we might see a test of 15176 followed by 15431 level.

BANK NIFTY: 34803.60 weekly change (-2.90%)

Observation

* BANK NIFTY on the weekly time frame can be seen forming candle with long upper legs.

* For the past 2 weeks the index has been forming a lower low lower high pattern after testing the 37708 level. It ended the week with a loss of (-2.90%).

* The RSI (69.45) plotted on the weekly time can be seen moving lower towards the 50 mark after forming a bearish hinge near the over bought level, indicating the bears have taken control of the trend.

* The long term moving averages on the daily time frame are as follows 50 Day SMA (33092), 100 Day SMA (30127) and 200 Day SMA (25856). Currently the prices are placed above all the long term moving averages.

* Going ahead the key technical levels to watch for on the downside are 34658 (Weekly low), beyond which we might see a test of 33698 (50% retracement level of the rise from 29687-37708), beyond which we might see a move towards 32751 (61.8% retracement level of the rise from 29687-37708).

* The crucial resistance is placed at 35428 (Previous Swing Low) followed by 37232 (Weekly high) and eventually towards the 37708 (All Time High).

Inference & Expectations

* The BANK NIFTY for the past 2 weeks has been witnessing strong correction, this correction brought the prices down from 37708 to 34658 levels.

* In the week that passed by the BANK NIFTY moved in sync with the NIFTY and ended the week with a loss of (- 2.90%) while the NIFTY ended with (- 3.00%).

* Going ahead the 34658 (Weekly low) will act as a make or break level. If the prices break this level, we can expect the prices to move lower and test the 33698 followed by 32751 level

* On the upside, if the prices break above the 35428 we can safely assume that the corrective phase has come to an end and the prices will continue to move higher and test the 37232 followed by 37708 mark.

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