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NIFTY ENERGY: 20368.05 weekly change (4.1%)

Observation

* On the monthly time frame we can see that the NIFTY ENERGY index has been forming a higher high higher low pattern since April 2020 which shows long term bullish phase.

* On the weekly time frame we witnessed that the index has been moving upward after a shallow retracement of 23.6% every time since March 2020 low of 9750 which shows strong strength of the bulls. This time also it resumed its up move after finding support near the 17159 mark which is 23.6% retracement of advance from 9750 - 19907 levels. In the last week the prices made a fresh life time high of 20517 and has sustained near that high which confirms the bullish undertone of the sector.

* On the indicator front we can see the RSI on the weekly time frame moved above the 65 mark and has managed to sustain above the same which indicates that the bulls are in control of the major trend.

* The key technical levels to watch for on the upside are 21039 (38.2% extension level of the rise from 9750-19907 projected from 17159) followed by 22238 (50% extension level of the rise from 9750-19907 projected from 17159 respectively).

* The crucial support is placed at 19485 (Previous week low) followed by 18684 (3 week low).

Inference & Expectations

* NIFTY ENERGY seems to be resuming its up move after a test of 17160 level.

* A bar analysis and the technical observations, point towards the index moving higher and testing fresh life time highs.

* We expect the index to move higher and test the 21039 mark immediately. If the index sustains above this level the gates towards the 22238 will open up

* The 19485 is expected to act as REDFLAG level. If the index moves below this level our bullish view will stand negated, and we can expect the index to move lower towards the 18684 mark.

NIFTY REALTY: 353.80 weekly change (6.69%)

Observation

* On the monthly time frame we can see that the NIFTY REALTY has been taking strong support near 300 mark since Jan 2021 and once again maintaining Higher Top Higher Bottom formation which shows bullish undertone of the sector with limited downside risk for the longer term.

* On the weekly time frame we can see the index is moving higher with the formation of ‘Double Bottom’ pattern near 300 levels which confirms the bullish strengths of the sector for the medium term.

* On the daily charts we witnessed that the index has given a breakout of ‘Bullish Flag’ pattern couple of days back near 340 levels which strengthen the positive trend.

* The RSI plotted on the weekly time frame can be seen forming a double bottom pattern near 50 mark and moving higher with the prices since May 2021 and currently it is placed above the 60 mark which indicates strong bullish momentum of the sector for medium to long term.

* Going ahead the 375 (Jan 2018 High) is going to be a major hurdle. If the index manages to breach above this level we can expect the index to move higher and test 398 (61.8% extension level of the rise from 203 – 365 projected from 298) and eventually move towards the 425 (78.6% extension level of the rise from 203.30– 365.60 projected from 298)

* On the down side, the level of 329 (Previous week low and 20 Week SMA) will act as a key support cluster, if this level is breached then we can expect further down move towards 298 (Recent swing low).

Inference & Expectations

* The NIFTY REALTY is showing a longer term bullish signs on the all time frame charts.

* Looking at the price action of the past few week we can expect the index to test the 375 levels. A break above this level will be a huge positive for the index and we can expect the prices to rally towards the 398 mark immediately followed by 425 levels.

* The index has strong support at 329 levels if it breaches the support then it will once again move lower towards 298 mark.

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