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Below are Views on Weekly Oulook - Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, copper ,USDINR & NCDEX Dhaniya By Mr. Anuj Gupta, Vice President, IIFL Securities

Gold / Silver
As expected Last week we saw again a rally in gold and silver. MCX Gold made a new lifetime high of 59461 levels and it increased by 5.85% and closed at 59,420 levels. In the international market it increased by 6.49% and closed at $1988 levels. MCX Silver made a 6 week's high of 68,720 levels. It increased by 9.22% and closed at 68,649 levels. In the international market it increased by 10.07% and closed at $22.59 levels.

Bullion prices also benefited from doubts over whether the Federal Reserve had enough headroom to keep raising interest rates, given the growing pressure on the economy. But a rush into safe havens provided the biggest boost to gold, as the collapse of several regional U.S. banks ramped up concerns over contagion in the broader economy, as well as fears of a looming recession

Technically the chart of gold is looking in bullish momentum. and For the next week gold may find support at 59000 ($1960) levels and 58500 ($1920) levels, while resistance at 59900 ($2010) and then 60500 ($2050) levels.  Silver may find support at 67500 ($22.00) levels and then 66000 ($21.40) levels, while resistance at 69800 ($23.20) levels and then 71500 ($24) levels.

As pre technically the trend of gold is positive and it is expected that gold may test 60000 to 60500 levels ($2010 to $2050) levels. Silver may test 69800 to 71000 ($23.30 & $24) levels very soon. We are recommending buy in Gold and Silver on the support levels.

Crude Oil

Brent Crude oil prices corrected sharply last week and made a 2 year low of $72.33 levels. On MCX it also corrected sharply and made a 2 year low of 5393 levels. Last week MCX Crude oil corrected by 12.13%  and closed at 5,529 levels. Brent crude oil corrected by 12.13% and closed at 72.33 levels.

The crisis in U.S. banking dragging oil further and further down with it. WTI's fall this week to less than $70 a barrel for the first time since December 2021 could spur the U.S. government to start refilling its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, so supplies are increasing.

Technically the trend of crude oil is looking weak. It has a support at 5200 ($70) and then $4800 ($68) levels while resistance at 5800 ($76) and then 6200 ($80) levels. As per the recent development the trend of crude oil is looking weak where it is expected that crude oil may trade down further and may test $65 to $70 levels very soon. Traders can go to sell crude oil on resistance levels.

Copper

Last week we saw a range bound movement in the base metals. MCX Copper increased by 0.53% and closed at 755.50 levels. Aluminium prices corrected by 0.29% and closed at 203.40 levels. Lead prices increased by 0.22% and closed at 182.50 levels, while zinc prices corrected by 1% and closed at 257.55 levels. The trend is base metals are sideways and no clear indication from the fresh demand from China. 

According to the Ministry of Energy and Mines of Peru (MINEM), copper production in Peru, the world’s second largest copper producing country, amounted to 198,621 tonnes in January 2023, down 0.3% compared to January 2022 (199,255 tonnes). Copper production and inventories are down which are positive for the prices. 

Technically the trend of copper and other metals are sideways to positive due to expectation of demand and low supplies. MCX Copper may find support at 740 levels and then 730 levels, while resistance at 770 levels at 785 levels. As per the trend, traders can accumulate copper on the support levels. It may test 765 to 770 levels. Trading above 770 levels may trade further 780 to 785 levels.  

USDINR

Last week, the Dollar index corrected by 0.74% and closed at 103.86 levels, while rupee depreciated by 0.62% and closed at 82.53 levels. Rupee is taking cues from the negative performance from the indian equity market. FPIs were in net outflow last week. India's forex reserves declined by $2.39 billion to $560 billion as of March 10, 2023, according to the data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday, March 17, 2023.

Technically the trend of USDINR is sideways. It has a strong support at 82.10 levels and resistance at 83.20 levels. It may trend between the support and resistance levels. 

NCDEX Dhaniya

Last week NCDEX Dhaniya recovered from the lower levels and closed on a positive note. It increased by 0.66% and closed at 6,984 levels. Demand from the lower levels and demand from the export demand supported from the Dhaniya. Change in weather is also supported for the Dhaniya.

Technically the trend is looking positive as prices are trading at an oversold zone. We are expecting recovery may be seen in Dhaniya prices. It may find support at 6700 levels and then 6400 levels, resistance at 7200 levels and then 7500 levels.

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