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Rupee: Likely to depreciate towards 83.00 level

* The rupee depreciated last week to a new all-time low and touched 82.43 level amid fresh strength shown by dollar index. Also, the rupee weakened on a surge in oil prices after Opec+ tightened global supply

* The dollar is gaining strength as improved economic data from the US signals economic resilience amid continued rate hikes. Also, the Fed commitment to combat soaring inflation will continue to support the dollar. Some of the Fed officials reinforced the idea that the central bank is nowhere near finished with its hiking cycle. Market sentiments were hurt on fears that spillover from geopolitical tensions and global monetary tightening will weigh on the economic outlook

* As long as the US$INR spot sustains above 81.30 it may rally till 83.00. US$INR traded in upward resistance and support wedges and broke the resistance wedge to start a new upward trend. The pair is expected to continue trading in upward trend towards level of 83.00 after breaking the key resistance level of 82.50 in the coming week

EURINR likely to depreciate till 79.90 level.

* The Euro depreciated almost 0.60% last week as the German government expects the German economy to slide into recession next year, contracting 0.4% as energy crisis, rising prices and supply bottlenecks take their toll. However, further major declines were restricted after ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the European Central Bank will raise interest rates as much as needed to bring down core inflation although the pace could possibly slow after the end of the year

* The Euro is expected to trade with a negative bias amid a strong US dollar. Further, investors will keep an eye on major economic data from the euro area like German CPI and industrial production data. EURUS$ is likely to break the key support level of 0.9660 to continue its downward trend towards the level of 0.9530. We expect EURINR (August) to trade in the range of 81.50 to 79.90

* The pound tumbled almost 0.60% last week amid a strong US dollar. However, sharp downside was prevented by stronger-than-expected GDP Q2 data. The British GDP grew 4.4% YoY in the second quarter of 2022, higher than an initial 2.9% rise

* The pound is expected to drop further amid a strong US dollar. Further, investors will closely watch key economic data like unemployment rate and manufacturing production from Britain for more understanding. It is likely to break the key support level of 1.0850 to continue its downward trend towards the level of 1.0780 in the coming trading session. GBPINR (August) is likely to trade in a range of 93.00 to 91.00

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