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Power demand continued to grow in Jul’23 post pick up seen in the month of Jun’23 and a subdued demand during the first 2 months of 1QFY24. With the energy demand in the range of 4,000-4,600MU, the peak demand averaged 199GW as compared to 209GW in Jun’23. Polysilicon and module prices remain on a downward trajectory whereas the tariffs for RE projects are increasing which bodes well for solar capacity additions. International coal prices also continue to moderate although the pace of decline has slowed down. A total of 54/9/16GW of Solar, Wind and SW Hybrid; and 8/19/27GW of Nuclear/Hydro/Thermal projects are under construction. Overall project execution particularly in RE and hydro is expected to pick up pace. Here, we present a collection of 46 charts/exhibits representing important data points that help us track energy transition in India.

* Power demand: The power demand continued to remain strong in Jul’23. Monthly peak demand recorded 9% YoY growth whereas the energy demand grew by 6% YoY in Jul’23. Recently, all-India peak demand reached 234GW on 17 th Aug’23; it breached the previous high of 223.2GW in Jun’23. Daily energy demand too breached 5BU, first time ever in India.

* Power generation: Total power generation improved by 7% YoY to 148BU during Jul’23 as compared to 138BU in Jul’22. The share of RE in total generation continues to grow, stood at 14% in Jul’23.

* Renewables: With a lot of policy actions, declining input costs and the upswing in tariffs (INR 2.65/kWh in CY23 from INR 2.40/kWh in CY21), the pace of solar project execution is expected to further pick up in ensuing months. Wind capacity installations in India rose 144% YOY to 1,307MW during the YTDFY24. We expect this momentum to sustain going forward.

* Tariff: Average tariff in the day-ahead spot power market declined to INR 4.5 per kWh in Jul’23 (INR 5.4 per kWh in Jun’23) however, healthy pick-up is being witnessed in Aug’23 with price averaging around INR 5.6 per kWh.

* PLF: With rising demand, utilisation (PLF) of coal-fired power plants continues to improve; it stood at 64.1% in Jul’23 against 58.8% in Jul’22.

* Generation capacity: Installed capacity in the country stands at 423GW with non-fossil /RE contributing 185/131GW to the total base (71GW – solar; 44GW – Wind). During YTDFY24, 4,365MW of Solar, and 1,307MW of Wind capacities have been added. A total of 54/9/16GW of Solar, Wind and SW Hybrid; and 8/18.8/26.7GW of Nuclear/Hydro/Thermal projects are under construction. A total of 24GW of coal-fired projects are under stress. Out of the 27GW thermal plants under construction, 12.4GW capacities are expected to get commissioned in CY23.

* Coal: Production of coal continues to rise, registering 10.4% YoY growth to 293MT in YTDFY24. Coal India (CIL) surpassed its target of 700MT in FY23 and is now targeting to produce 780MT in FY24. Indonesian coal prices (5,900kcal/kg) moderated from peak levels of Mar’22 (USD 218/tn) to USD 89/tn in Jul’23. CIL's price realisation for e-auction sales has dropped nearly 14% to INR 3,742/t in 1QFY24 from INR 4,340/t in 1QFY23.

* Solar input material cost: The prices of solar components, viz., polysilicon, wafers and, cells have declined from their highs due to global capacity expansions and systemic oversupply. Polysilicon prices declined from USD 38.8/kg in Aug’22 to USD 8.7/kg in Aug’23. Solar cell prices declined from USD 0.17/piece in Aug’22 to USD 0.10/piece in Aug’23. The exports of solar products from China reached an all-time high, totalling USD 22.2bn in the first five months of 2023.

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