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Market Roundup

The Indian rupee is expected to open slightly higher amid a rebound in the risk assets and a weaker dollar against Asian currencies. The forward markets indicate USDINR opening around 82.66 at the domestic bourses. Today is the expiry of the February month contracts and derivative positionssuggest USDINR settling around 82.75.

On Thursday, spot USDINR fell 11 paise to 82.74 amid lower crude oil prices and a weaker greenback. Technically, spot USDINR is stuck in the range of 82.50 to 83 since the start of February month. Historically, we have seen a directional trend after such consolidation. Hence, we recommend traders waitfor that action.

Japanese yen strengthens Friday against all Group-of-Ten peers ahead of Bank of Japan Governor nominee KazuoUeda’s parliamentary confirmation hearing.

The greenback turned lower with Treasury yields following warnings about the US economic outlook from the foreign broking house. Earlier, the dollar rose briefly after an upward revision in GDP core PCE and an unexpected drop in weekly claims data, adding to gains amid an early dip in share prices.

A gauge of Asian equities gave up most of their advance as Chinese markets opened Friday, with Hong Kong-listed tech stocksleading the decliners. Elsewhere, Oil extended on Thursday’s advance when it snapped its longest losing streak since December amid strength in commodity currencies and signs of appetite for risk-taking.

Investors will eye on key US economic data later Friday in the form of personal consumption expenditures — the Fed’s preferred price gauge. . It’s expected to show acceleration, adding to a string of unfavourable figures that bolster the case for the central bank to hold rates at 5.25% forsome time.

Technical Observations:

USDINR March futures resisted at a downward slopping trend line adjoining swing highs of 84.31 and 83.76.

The pair has been holding the short-term moving average support on the daily chart.

Currently, the 20-day moving average is placed at 82.66.

Momentum oscillator, Relative Strength Index turned slightly weak on the daily chart but still remain above 50.

The derivative data shows the short buildup in the March futures as price declined while open interest and volumes gained.

In the near term, USDINR March futures could trade between 83.20 to 82.50. One should remain nimble and wait for a breakout above 83.20 for fresh long positions.

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