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 Indian rupee could open slightly lower following weak regional currencies and domestic equities. The forward markets indicate USDINR opening at 82.78 at local bourses. On Thursday, spot USDINR fell one-tenth of a percentage to 82.72 following a recovery in domestic equities backed by foreign fund buying.

In the near term, spot USDINR has resistance at 82.95 and support at 82.30. The bias remains bullish for the pair as long as it trades above 82.30, the 50-day simple moving average.

The greenback stepped back from Thursday’s gains while stocks fell after a round of aggressive Fed rhetoric. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he advocated for a half-point hike at the last meeting and wouldn’trule outsupporting it in March. The

S&P 500 retreated by 1.4% to narrow its 2023 gains back towards 7%, while Treasurys came under bear steepening pressure as the long bond rose seven basis pointsto 3.92%, with the two-year note holding at 4.62%.

US producer prices rose 0.7% in January, almost double the consensus, after falling a revised 0.2% in December. PPI slowed by less than an expected year on year, to 6% from 6.5%. Initial jobless claims were roughly in line with expectations at 194,000, while housing startsfell by more than forecastfor the fifth straightmonth.

President Joe Biden says he intends to speak with China’s President Xi Jinping to defuse tensions over the downing of an alleged Chinese spy balloon. Meanwhile, China imposed fines and sanctions against US defense companies Lockheed Martin and a subsidiary of Raytheon forselling weaponsto Taiwan.

China’s top leaders said the country has achieved a “decisive victory” over Covid as its death toll dropssharply.

USDINR

Technical Observations

USDINR February futures formed a bearish candle after the doji candlestick, indicating a probable reversal. However,

the pair held the support of a short-term moving average of 10 days and recovered. The pair has downward slopping trend line resistance at 83.10, adjoining recent swing highs of 83.32 and 83.17.

It has support at 82.60, the 10-day exponential moving average.

Momentum oscillator, Relative Strength Index is hovering around 60.

MACD is placed above the zero line indicating the continuation of an up trend. The derivative data shows long unwinding as the price and open interest declined. In the near term, USDINR February futures could trade between 83.10 to 82.30.

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