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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 1.57% at 60954 as the dollar turned weak despite expectations the Federal Reserve will continue with its monetary tightening to fight inflation. Gold prices surged on safe-have buying after OPEC+ announced a surprise output cut, raising concerns about inflation. Investors were assessing economic data, which showed U.S. manufacturing activity in March slumped to its lowest level in nearly three years due to rising borrowing costs. While inflation pressures subsided, new orders plunged as a result of tighter credit conditions, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) survey revealed. The dollar traded weak for a second consecutive session, hitting two-month lows against a basket of major currencies. Treasury yields also held declines as traders struck to bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve will resort to cutting rates later this year. The euro area's industrial producer prices decreased 0.5 percent sequentially in February, following a 2.8 percent decline in January, Eurostat data showed. Gold consumers in top hub China slowed purchases as a steady rise in domestic prices started to bite, forcing dealers to offer discounts for the first time in months. In India dealers to offer discounts of up to $26 an ounce over official domestic prices easing from the more than one-year high discounts of $57 last week. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.39% to settle at 19361 while prices are up 940 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 60159 and below same could see a test of 59365 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 61446, a move above could see prices testing 61939.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 59365-61939.
* Gold gains after cooler-than-expected labor market data from US
* U.S. manufacturing activity in March slumped to its lowest level in nearly three years
* In India dealers to offer discounts of up to $26 an ounce over official domestic prices


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 3.52% at 74618 as investors continued to assess the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy in light of weaker-than-expected US manufacturing data. Data showed that US manufacturing activity contracted for the fifth consecutive month in March and by the most since May 2020. Investors now look ahead to a raft of employment data in the US this week, as well as interest rate decisions from the central banks of India, Australia and New Zealand. Euro zone consumers cut their inflation expectations in February and also took a more optimistic view on growth and unemployment, a fresh survey by the European Central Bank showed. Euro zone inflation has started to edge down from record highs around the turn of the year and further big falls are likely over the coming months, even if concerns are rising that price growth could still get stuck above the ECB's 2% target further out. Over the next 12 months, inflation expectations fell to 4.6% from 4.9% while three years out, they eased to 2.4% from 2.5%, the ECB said, based on a monthly survey of 14,000 adults in six of the euro zone's biggest countries. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 10.2% to settle at 17525 while prices are up 2538 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 72856 and below same could see a test of 71093 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 75541, a move above could see prices testing 76463.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 71093-76463.
* Silver rose as dollar & US 10-year Yields weakened after weak economic data from US
* Data showed that US manufacturing activity contracted for the fifth consecutive month in March and by the most since May 2020
* Euro zone consumers more optimistic on inflation, ECB survey shows


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.11% at 6619 underpinned by a surprise production cut of more than 1 million barrels per day from OPEC+. This accelerated short-covering in the market as traders have been reducing short positions in oil even before the surprise announcement. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers announced voluntary cuts to their production, with Riyadh saying it would cut output by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) from May until the end of 2023, state media reported. Russia's deputy prime minister also said Moscow would extend a voluntary cut of 500,000 bpd until the end of 2023. The United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, Oman and Algeria said they would voluntarily cut output over the same time period. The UAE said it would cut production by 144,000 bpd, Kuwait announced a cut of 128,000 bpd while Iraq said it would cut output by 211,000 bpd and Oman announced a cut of 40,000 bpd. Algeria said it would cut its output by 48,000 bpd. The Biden administration said the surprise oil output cuts announced by Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ countries were not advisable. "We don’t think cuts are advisable at this moment given market uncertainty – and we’ve made that clear," a spokesperson for the National Security Council said. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -9.23% to settle at 7129 while prices are up 7 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6539 and below same could see a test of 6459 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6708, a move above could see prices testing 6797.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6459-6797.
* Crude oil rose amid a surprise production cut of more than 1 mbpd from OPEC+.
* OPEC+ announces surprise oil output cuts
* U.S. sees OPEC+ output cuts as unadvisable, NSC spokesperson says


Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.58% at 174 pressured by persistently weak demand due to above-normal temperatures and ample inventories. Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 98.6 bcfd so far in March, up from 98.1 bcfd in February. The monthly record is 99.9 bcfd in November 2022. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through April 13. Mild winter weather allowed utilities to leave more gas in storage so far this year and should let them start injecting fuel into inventories at the beginning of April. U.S. natural gas storage is expected to end the April-October summer injection season at 4.011 trillion cubic feet (tcf) on Oct. 31, 2023, the most since hitting a record high in 2016, according to consensus forecasts. That compares with 3.569 tcf of gas in storage at the end of the summer injection season in 2022 and a five-year (2018-2022) average of 3.628 tcf. There was a record 4.013 tcf of gas in storage at the end of October 2016. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 6.81% to settle at 46752 while prices are down -2.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 171.6 and below same could see a test of 169.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 178.3, a move above could see prices testing 182.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 169.1-182.5.
* Natural gas dropped pressured by persistently weak demand and ample inventories.
* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 98.6 bcfd so far in March, up from 98.1 bcfd in February.
* Mild winter weather allowed utilities to leave more gas in storage so far this year



Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -1.26% at 766.85 as China's factory activity growth stalled in March, weighed by slowing production and weaker global demand and adding to uncertainty about a post-COVID recovery, a private sector survey showed. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 50.0 in March. Strong usage in China amid its economic reopening led inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange to fall by over one-third since hitting their peak in February. At the same time, output from top producer Chile sank by 3.7% in February, magnifying low supply from Peru due to political turmoil. Depleting stocks worldwide drove key commodity trader Trafigura to forecast copper prices at a record high this year. Meanwhile, supply and demand imbalances led Goldman Sachs to project the global shortage of visible copper inventories by September. Demand estimates differed as eased concerns of banking turmoil raised the possibility of tighter policy by the Fed. In China, mixed manufacturing PMI data extended caution on demand expectations from the world’s top consumer. China will safeguard the yuan and financial stability, central bank governor Yi Gang told. Yi's remarks in the wake of the global banking crisis were quoted in a statement posted on the People's Bank of China. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.98% to settle at 3869 while prices are down -9.75 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 761.1 and below same could see a test of 755.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 775.4, a move above could see prices testing 783.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 755.3-783.9.
* Copper prices dropped as China's March factory activity growth falters on weaker demand
* Germany manufacturing PMI plunged to lowest in three years
* Japan's Sumitomo Metal said it plans 11% cut in FY2023/24 copper output.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.52% at 252.15 weighed down by concerns over global demand amid economic growth slowdown and inflation worries, even as supply uncertainty prevailed. Investor sentiment was also hampered by China's factory activity, which lost momentum in March amid still-weak export orders. China will safeguard the yuan and financial stability, central bank governor Yi Gang told. Yi's remarks in the wake of the global banking crisis were quoted in a statement posted on the People's Bank of China. China had taken a series of measures to curb financial risks and to guard against systemic financial risks, Yi said. "If financial risks emerge, they will harm the interests of the general public and may even cause social problems," Yi said. China's factory activity growth stalled in March, weighed by slowing production and weaker global demand and adding to uncertainty about a post-COVID recovery, a private sector survey showed. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 50.0 in March. That followed February's reading of 51.6, which indicated the first monthly expansion in seven months. The reading far missed expectations of 51.7, and echoed slower growth in an official PMI. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 19.95% to settle at 3132 while prices are down -3.9 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 250.5 and below same could see a test of 248.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 254.5, a move above could see prices testing 256.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 248.9-256.9.
* Zinc dropped weighed by concerns over global demand amid economic growth slowdown
*  Investor sentiment was also hampered by China's factory activity, which lost momentum in March amid still-weak export orders.
* A slump in U.S. manufacturing activity last month pointed to further signs of a slowing economy



Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.64% at 208.15 as aluminium smelters in Sichuan and Guizhou have resumed production, but the 780,000 mt of aluminium capacity in Yunnan that was previously curtailed has not yet resumed production. On the demand side, downstream operating rates improved. China's factory activity growth stalled in March, weighed by slowing production and weaker global demand and adding to uncertainty about a post-COVID recovery, a private sector survey showed. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 50.0 in March. Social inventory of aluminium ingots continued to drop. With little disruption to supply and demand, overseas crude oil production cuts may provide upward momentum to aluminium prices some in the short term. China will safeguard the yuan and financial stability, central bank governor Yi Gang told. Yi's remarks in the wake of the global banking crisis were quoted in a statement posted on the People's Bank of China. China had taken a series of measures to curb financial risks and to guard against systemic financial risks, Yi said. "If financial risks emerge, they will harm the interests of the general public and may even cause social problems," Yi said. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.98% to settle at 2771 while prices are down -1.35 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 207.2 and below same could see a test of 206.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 209.5, a move above could see prices testing 210.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 206.1-210.7.
* Aluminum dropped as aluminium smelters in Sichuan and Guizhou have resumed production
* China's factory activity growth stalled in March
* China will safeguard the yuan and financial stability, central bank governor Yi Gang told.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.57% at 999.1 as demand was poor due to recession fears and global banking turmoil. The collapse of California’s Silicon Valley Bank and troubles at Swiss lender Credit Suisse have shaken the financial markets and dampened the outlook for oil consumption. Market participants expect prices to remain under pressure until demand recovers and market sentiment improves. Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes as compared to 2,335.63 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 171.07 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 36.32%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -5.5 Rupees to end at 1177.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.47% to settle at 708 while prices are down -5.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 985.9 and below same could see a test of 972.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1008.3, a move above could see prices testing 1017.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 972.8-1017.6.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -5.5 Rupees to end at 1177.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as demand was poor due to recession fears and global banking turmoil.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes
* In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes was exported against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.41% at 6884 on short covering as export demand is good amidst lukewarm domestic demand. Turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices. In AP (Nizamabad) Turmeric market around 5,000-7,000 bags are arriving on an average daily basis. In the Erode spot market 400-600 bags are reported on a daily basis, In the Sangli district it is around 3500-7000 bags. Coupled with weak demand in the export and domestic market prices are trading at lower levels (in the current season). Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2023, rose by 7.76 percent at 1,36,492.59 tonnes as compared to 1,26,659.01 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,039.57 tonnes in December 2022 showing a rise of 3.69%. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 10,558.26 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 18.24%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6956.25 Rupees gained 55.2 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.71% to settle at 9060 while prices are up 28 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6836 and below same could see a test of 6788 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6930, a move above could see prices testing 6976.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6788-6976.
* Turmeric gained on short covering as export demand is good amidst lukewarm domestic demand.
* Farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6956.25 Rupees gained 55.2 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.54% at 35055 on profit booking after prices rose as unfavorable weather conditions affecting supply from main producing areas. This year, there is a stock deficit, lesser output, and increased export demand for jeera. Cumin harvests in Gujarat are now higher than last year, but recent rains are projected to lower yields by at least 20%. Gujarat produced 2.15 lakh metric tonnes (MT) of cumin in 2023. Currently, over 30% of Gujarat's crop remains unharvested in the districts of Kutch and Banaskantha. Due to unseasonal rain in certain regions, a portion of this crop is likely to be damaged or of low quality. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 366.75 Rupees to end at 34740.4 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.32% to settle at 4806 while prices are down -550 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 34570 and below same could see a test of 34085 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 35620, a move above could see prices testing 36185.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 34085-36185.
*Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices rose as unfavorable weather conditions affecting supply
* Further downside seen limited amid a stock deficit, lesser output, and increased export demand for jeera
* Cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 366.75 Rupees to end at 34740.4 Rupees per 100 kg.