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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.74% at 47074 as a deepening slide in longer-term U.S. Treasury yields on the prospect of a less accommodative U.S. monetary policy boosted the allure of the non-yielding metal. Bullion prices slumped about 6 percent last week to mark their worst week since March 2020 after the U.S. Federal Reserve surprised markets with its hawkish statement. The yellow metal is supported by a fall in yields, with benchmark U.S. Treasury yields falling to their lowest since March 3. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that inflation risks may force the Fed to raise rates as early as next year added to worries. The rapid economic growth is bringing faster-than-expected inflation, which could warrant a liftoff in late 2022, Bullard said in an interview. Separately, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said on Friday he wants to keep the Fed's benchmark short-term interest rate near zero at least through the end of 2023. Gold purchases in India ticked up after a decline in local rates, although dealers cautioned that demand is unlikely to return to normal levels soon. Discounts were unchanged at about $12 an ounce, the highest since mid-September 2020, on official domestic prices. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.47% to settled at 10765 while prices up 346 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 46753 and below same could see a test of 46432 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47275, a move above could see prices testing 47476.

Trading Ideas: 

* Gold trading range for the day is 46432-47476.

* Gold remained under pressure as dollar continued to extend gains after Fed revised upwards its inflation forecasts for this year

* ECB’s Lagarde said that monetary and fiscal stimulus should remain until there are clear signs that a "firm, solid and sustainable" economic recovery is underway

* Gold purchases in India ticked up after a decline in local rates, although dealers cautioned that demand is unlikely to return to normal levels soon.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.24% at 67762 as a pause in the dollar's rally helped restore the metal's allure. The US central bank has sharply raised its forecasts for inflation this year and flagged two rate increases by the end of 2023. The scale of the change in outlook came to benefit bullish investors who expect that Jay Powell and his rate-setting colleagues will need to think about scaling back quantitative easing to prevent the US economy from overheating. On top of that, comments from James Bullard, president of the St Louis Fed, about the prospects of an even earlier interest rate increase have supercharged existing upward momentum for the greenback. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said he wants to keep the U.S. central bank’s benchmark short-term interest rate near zero at least through the end of 2023 to allow the labor market to return to its pre-pandemic strength. "The vast majority of Americans want to work, and I am not ready to write them off – and I want to give them the chance to work," Kashkari told Reuters in his first public comments since the end of the Fed's policy meeting earlier this week. Market participants will watch speeches from Fed members this week, including comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday, to see if they confirm the hawkish outlook, or try to row back market expectations of tightening. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.65% to settled at 9974 while prices up 164 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66942 and below same could see a test of 66122 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68268, a move above could see prices testing 68774.

Trading Ideas: 

* Silver trading range for the day is 66122-68774.

* Silver prices recovered as a pause in the dollar's rally helped restore the metal's allure.

* Fed Kashkari said he wants to keep the U.S. central bank’s benchmark short-term interest rate near zero at least through the end of 2023

* The US central bank has sharply raised its forecasts for inflation this year and flagged two rate increases by the end of 2023.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.67% at 5430 underpinned by strong demand during the summer driving season and a pause in talks to revive the Iran nuclear deal that could indicate a delay in resumption of supplies from the OPEC producer. Iran and six world power negotiators postponed talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal and it was unclear when formal negotiations would resume. Meanwhile, Iraq, OPEC's second-biggest producer, expects oil prices to reach $80 per barrel as the energy market stabilizes. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to June 8, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. The speculator group raise its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 27,949 contracts to 424,476 during the period. U.S. energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for a second week in a row as crude prices rose to their highest since 2018, prompting some drillers to return to the wellpad. The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose nine to 470 in the week to June 18, its highest since April 2020, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said in its closely followed report. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 66.85% to settled at 9402 while prices up 141 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5314 and below same could see a test of 5197 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5497, a move above could see prices testing 5563.

Trading Ideas: 

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5197-5563.

* Crude oil prices nudged up underpinned by strong demand during the summer driving season and a pause in talks to revive the Iran nuclear deal

* Iraq, OPEC's second-biggest producer, expects oil prices to reach $80 per barrel as the energy market stabilizes.

* Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to June 8, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.17% at 236 on forecasts for lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. U.S. natural gas production will rise in 2021 after falling last year due to coronavirus demand destruction, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Domestic demand for gas, meanwhile, will decline for a second year in a row in 2021, EIA forecast. EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 92.18 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2021 and 93.93 bcfd in 2022 from 91.35 bcfd in 2020. That compares with an all-time high of 93.06 bcfd in 2019. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, up from 91.0 bcfd in May but still well below the monthly record high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. With the coming of hotter summer weather, Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 88.0 bcfd this week to 92.0 bcfd next week. Those forecasts, however, were lower than Refinitiv projected on Friday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 9.8 bcfd so far in June, down from 10.8 bcfd in May and an all-time high of 11.5 bcfd in April. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -32.19% to settled at 6701 while prices down -2.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 233.3 and below same could see a test of 230.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 238.4, a move above could see prices testing 240.7.

Trading Ideas: 

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 230.5-240.7.

* Natural gas fell on forecasts for slightly less demand next week than previously expected following heat waves

* However downside seen limited as the release of a report showing a smaller-than-expected build in storage last week.

* U.S. natgas output to rise, demand to fall in 2021 – EIA

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.78% at 698.5 as dollar retreated from two-month highs as investors continued to evaluate whether a perceived hawkish tilt by the Federal Reserve last week will mean a pause in the dollar bear trend that has been in play since March 2020. Prices fell in recent sessions as fears of sooner-than-expected policy tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve strengthened the dollar. The U.S. Federal Reserve surprised markets last week by signalling it would raise interest rates and end emergency bond-buying sooner than expected. China's copper exports edged up for a third straight month in May to their highest level since March last year, customs data showed, as higher international prices encouraged traders to ship more metal overseas. However, last month's surge in London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices to a record high has not only made imports less favourable for China, but also incentivised shipments in the other direction. China refined copper production last month stood at 866,000 tonnes, up 10.2% on an annual basis, according to the statistics bureau. China kept its benchmark lending rate for corporate and household loans unchanged for the 14th straight month at its June fixing, in line with market expectations. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept at 3.85%. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -17.39% to settled at 3735 while prices up 5.4 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 689 and below same could see a test of 679.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 704.1, a move above could see prices testing 709.7.

Trading Ideas: 

* Copper trading range for the day is 679.5-709.7.

* Copper prices gained as dollar retreated from two-month highs as investors continued to evaluate whether a perceived hawkish tilt by Fed.

* China May copper exports hit 14-month peak as traders cash in on LME price jump

* China May refined copper output +10.2% y/y at 866,000 tonnes - stats bureau

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.83% at 232.2 as a bipartisan U.S. infrastructure plan costing a little over $1 trillion has been gaining support in the U.S. Senate. Chinese authorities announced plans to sell its reserves of copper, aluminium, and zinc in batches in the near future to ensure the supply and price stability of bulk commodities. Losses have been limited by trillions of economic stimulus to support post-COVID recovery including funds for infrastructure and for transition to a carbon-free world, which boosted demand. At the same time, lack of investment by big mining companies and a slowdown in production during the height of the covid outbreak last spring brought inventories to levels not seen in fifteen years. Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei decreased 7,500 mt in the week ended June 18 to 128,600 mt. The stocks fell 3,500 mt from Tuesday June 15. The use of reverse repurchase by the Federal Reserve surged to a record $756 billion, far exceeding the previous record high of $584 billion. In addition, the number of initial jobless claims in the US rose slightly last week, the first increase since April, which was higher than the median value expected by economists. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -23.86% to settled at 1085 while prices up 1.9 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 229.5 and below same could see a test of 226.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 233.8, a move above could see prices testing 235.5.

Trading Ideas: 

* Zinc trading range for the day is 226.9-235.5.

* Zinc recovered as a bipartisan U.S. infrastructure plan costing a little over $1 trillion has been gaining support in the U.S. Senate.

* Chinese authorities announced plans to sell its reserves of zinc in batches in the near future to ensure the supply and price stability of bulk commodities.

* China May zinc output +1.2% y/y at 527,000 tonnes - stats bureau

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 1.88% at 1298.4 amid strong Chinese demand and near record-low inventories in warehouses tracked by ShFE. The dollar retreated from two-month highs as investors continued to evaluate whether a perceived hawkish tilt by the Federal Reserve last week will mean a pause in the dollar bear trend that has been in play since March 2020. The dollar has surged since the U.S. central bank on Wednesday said that policymakers are forecasting two rate hikes in 2023. That led investors to re-evaluate bets that the U.S. central bank will let inflation run at higher levels for a longer time before hiking rates. U.S. President Joe Biden is eager to continue discussions on major infrastructure legislation this week and wants to get more details on the latest bipartisan proposal, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said. A bipartisan infrastructure plan costing a little over $1 trillion, only about a fourth of what Biden initially proposed, has been gaining support in the U.S. Senate, but disputes continued on Sunday over how it should be funded. Meanwhile, spot premiums and discounts expanded significantly amid active trade. Steel mills started to purchase nickel plates for the high production, and nickel sulphate prices rose, driving up nickel briquette consumption. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.85% to settled at 1317 while prices up 23.9 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1281.8 and below same could see a test of 1265.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1309.4, a move above could see prices testing 1320.3.

Trading Ideas: 

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1265.1-1320.3.

* Nickel rose amid strong Chinese demand and near record-low inventories in warehouses tracked by ShFE.

* Biden eager to continue infrastructure talks with lawmakers - Psaki

* Steel mills started to purchase nickel plates for the high production, and nickel sulphate prices rose, driving up nickel briquette consumption.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.66% at 191.4 amid tight stocks and continued robust demand from the automotive, packaging and construction sectors. Demand for the metal in the US is seen at 5.1 million tonnes but local production is likely to be short of 1 million whereas 8.1 million tonnes are expected to be needed in Europe, except Russia, and only 4.3 million will likely be produced. Two regional Federal Reserve officials said that a faster withdrawal from the central bank’s bond purchase program could give it more leeway in deciding when to raise interest rates. The discussion of how fast to end the Fed’s $120 billion monthly bond purchase program is only just beginning, but should keep in mind how it affects the debate that will follow it over interest rates. Global primary aluminium output rose to 5.744 million tonnes in May from revised 5.543 million tonnes in April, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. China's alumina output rose 11.2% from a year earlier to 6.6 million tonnes in May, the highest on record, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.64% to settled at 2139 while prices up 1.25 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 188.9 and below same could see a test of 186.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 193.3, a move above could see prices testing 195.2.

Trading Ideas: 

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 186.4-195.2.

* Aluminium prices recovered amid tight stocks and continued robust demand from the automotive, packaging and construction sectors

* Global aluminium output rises to 5.744 mln T in May – IAI

* China May alumina output rose 11.2% year-on-year to 6.6 million tonnes - stats bureau

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.81% at 1020.7 as arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. However in recent session prices gained due to rain harvesting of menthe crop will be affected and also production get affected. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Overall post-lock-down demand will be likely to improve as demand from the health industry will likely continue also as per CIMAP. Due to favourable weather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year. Mentha exhibits important biological activities. For that reason, it has been used through the years as a remedy for respiratory diseases like bronchitis, sinusitis, tuberculosis, and the common cold. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -25.3 Rupees to end at 1131.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 14 while prices down -8.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 991.8 and below same could see a test of 962.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1056.8, a move above could see prices testing 1092.9.

Trading Ideas: 

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 962.9-1092.9.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -25.3 Rupees to end at 1131.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil dropped as arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. 

* Fresh season arrival started as the lock-down started to ease.

* Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days.

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 5.75% at 6894 tracking firmness in overseas prices on bargain-buying and as fresh export demand emerged. Chinese state-owned importers bought at least eight cargo shipments of U.S. soybeans, or at least 480,000 tonnes, the country's largest U.S. soybean purchases in 4-1/2 months. Uncertainty about U.S. crop weather lent support as traders weighed dry conditions in the Midwest against forecasts for cooler temperatures next week and showers in some areas. Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021 as record high prices for the oilseed could prompt some to switch from cultivating competing commodities such as cotton and pulses, industry officials said. The Soy Food Promotion and Welfare Association (SFPWA), which represents soybean food processing industries in India has urged Prime Minister Narendra Modi to allow the processing industry to import 50,000 tonnes of food specialty soybeans from the US duty-free as prices of domestic soybeans have increased 50% during the past six months. K Sarat Chandra Kumar, President, Soy Food Promotion and Welfare Association said, "The beans could be allowed into the country at “zero” duty under tariff rate quota since food specialty soybeans are not grown in the country." At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 234 Rupees to 7089 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.01% to settled at 37260 while prices up 375 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 6660 and below same could see a test of 6425 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7020, a move above could see prices testing 7145.

Trading Ideas: 

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 6425-7145.

* Soyabean prices gained tracking firmness in overseas prices on bargain-buying and as fresh export demand emerged.

* Chinese state-owned importers bought at least eight cargo shipments of U.S. soybeans, the country's largest U.S. soybean purchases in 4-1/2 months.

* Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  234 Rupees to 7089 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 2.67% at 1240.3 as India exported 5.31 lakh tonnes of oilmeals in the first two months of the fiscal 2021-22 against 3.50 lakh tonnes in the same period a year ago, recording a growth of 52 per cent. BV Mehta, Executive Director of Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), said the export of oilmeals increased sharply on the back of shipments of rapeseed meal during the period. India has put on hold a proposal to reduce import taxes on edible oils as cooking oil prices started to fall in the world market after hitting record highs, two government and one industry officials told. India slashed the base import prices of palm oil and soybean oil for a fortnight, the government said in a statement, as prices of the cooking oils fell sharply in the global market. Imports would remain elevated even in June as many states are easing lockdowns and allowing restaurants to reopen. A coalition of nine Argentine port worker unions went on a nationwide 24-hour strike to press for vaccinations against the coronavirus. Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021 as record high prices for the oilseed could prompt some to switch from cultivating competing commodities such as cotton and pulses, industry officials said. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1287.75 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.46% to settled at 40805 while prices up 32.3 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1193 and below same could see a test of 1146 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1266, a move above could see prices testing 1292.

Trading Ideas: 

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1146-1292.

* Ref soyoil ended with gains as Indian oilmeals export up by 52% in April-May 2021-22

* Imports would remain elevated even in June as many states are easing lockdowns and allowing restaurants to reopen.

* A coalition of nine Argentine port worker unions went on a nationwide 24-hour strike to press for vaccinations against the coronavirus.

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1287.75 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 0.69% at 1028.8 as traders waited for June partial export data and production estimates for more direction. India has put on hold a proposal to reduce import taxes on edible oils as cooking oil prices started to fall in the world market after hitting record highs. India slashed the base import prices of palm oil and soybean oil for a fortnight, the government said in a statement, as prices of the cooking oils fell sharply in the global market. India's palm oil imports nearly doubled in May from last year's low base to the highest level in 4-months as refiners bought aggressively to replenish inventory. The country's palm oil imports in the month jumped 92% to 769,602 tonnes. U.S. President Joe Biden's administration, under pressure from labour unions and senators, is considering ways to provide relief to domestic oil refiners from biofuel blending mandates. Indonesia, the world's biggest palm oil producer, exported 2.64 million tonnes of palm oil and its refined products in April, down from a month earlier, data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) showed. That compares to 3.23 million tonnes exported in March, while April production of the vegetable oil "was relatively unchanged from March" at nearly 4.1 million tonnes, GAPKI said. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 15.8 Rupees to end at 1048.8 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -18.54% to settled at 2571 while prices up 7 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1015.3 and below same could see a test of 1001.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1042.8, a move above could see prices testing 1056.7.

Trading Ideas: 

* CPO trading range for the day is 1001.7-1056.7.

* Crude palm oil ended with gains as traders waited for June partial export data and production estimates for more direction.

* India has put on hold a proposal to reduce import taxes on edible oils as cooking oil prices started to fall in the world market

* India's palm oil imports nearly doubled in May as refiners bought aggressively to replenish inventory.

* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 15.8 Rupees to end at 1048.8 Rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 4.03% at 6787 as the arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country. However upside seen limited pushed lower by flagging global overseas prices amid forecasts for beneficial rains across the Canadian Prairie. U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. COOIT was against any reduction in import duties on edible oils but wanted the Centre to remove the GST of 5 per cent on mustard seed and oil as it will help farmers and consumers both. European Union rapeseed production is projected to show a modest gain in 2021/22 on increased planted area and improved yield but will remain below the levels observed from 2016 to 2018. However, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association (MOPA) have estimated the production at 89.50 lakh tonnes. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 277.25 Rupees to end at 7058 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.84% to settled at 52110 while prices up 263 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 6570 and below same could see a test of 6353 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6922, a move above could see prices testing 7057.

Trading Ideas: 

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 6353-7057.

* Mustard seed gained as the arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country.

* However upside seen limited amid flagging global overseas prices amid forecasts for beneficial rains across the Canadian Prairie.

* Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 277.25 Rupees to end at 7058 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1% at 7474 on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. However upside seen limited as the curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading. In Nizamabad APMC in Telangana, the modal price of the finger variety turmeric was quoted at ₹6,950 a quintal. Prices are up about ₹400 since the beginning of this month. At Bangalore in Karnataka, turmeric is quoted at ₹11,500 at the APMC yard with most markets closed in the State to control the Covid-19 pandemic. In Tamil Nadu, too, the agricultural markets are closed as part of the lockdown to tackle the pandemic. Demand for exports to Bangladesh and Europe are helping turmeric prices to gain. Exporters are looking to pick up stocks from Nanded in view of its quality. Turmeric has been in demand over the last two years as it is reported to be effective in medical use, particularly in combating Covid-19. According to Spices Board data, turmeric exports during the April-December period of the last fiscal increased 34 per cent to 1.39 lakh tonnes valued at ₹1,251 crore compared with 1.03 lakh tonnes valued at ₹1,047 crore. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7458.7 Rupees dropped -27.15 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.92% to settled at 11310 while prices up 74 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7384 and below same could see a test of 7292 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7544, a move above could see prices testing 7612.

Trading Ideas: 

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7292-7612.

* Turmeric prices gained on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. 

* However upside seen limited as the curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading.

* Turmeric has been in demand over the last two years as it is reported to be effective in medical use, particularly in combating Covid-19. 

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7458.7 Rupees dropped -27.15 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.34% at 13345 on short covering after prices dropped as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases, slowing spot trade interest weakened market sentiments. The wholesale offers for the NCDEX grade Jeera are currently offered around Rs.14000/qtl in Unjha and in Jodhpur, the mandi offers average near Rs.13900/qtl. Over a month, the wholesale prices in Unjha and Jodhpur have gone down by Rs.400/qtl and Rs.700/qtl respectively. As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued. The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals. They rather prefer to clear their older stocks first and presently they feel that the older inventory may be sufficient to balance the existing demand for next few weeks easily. The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market. However from a broader perspective, India’s exports outlook has brightened while crop is expected to be lower versus year on year. Also, the nearest export competitors i.e. Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 51.75 Rupees to end at 13640 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.5% to settled at 6891 while prices up 45 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13295 and below same could see a test of 13250 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13390, a move above could see prices testing 13440.

Trading Ideas: 

* Jeera trading range for the day is 13250-13440.

* Jeera gained on short covering after prices dropped as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases.

* As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued.

* The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 51.75 Rupees to end at 13640 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.38% at 23810 as in its latest cotton crop estimate for the season 2020-21, the trade body Cotton Association of India (CAI) has reduced the crop size by 4 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) to 356 lakh bales. The reduction is attributed to the lower output expected in Gujarat and Telangana. The CAI estimates show a decrease of one lakh bales in the crop estimate for Gujarat, while cotton crop for Telangana is estimated lower by 3 lakh bales based on the pressing data provided by Telangana Cotton Millers & Traders Welfare Association. The trade body has increased the consumption estimate for the current crop year by 10 lakh bales to 325 lakh bales from its previous estimate of 315 lakh bales. “The Committee has made this revision considering the brisk demand for cotton yarn despite disruptions caused on account of the lockdown implemented to arrest the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic in the country,” it said. Cotton exports are expected to increase to 72 lakh bales in the current crop season, which is 7 lakh bales more than the initial estimate of 65 lakh bales in May. In the last crop season, only 50 lakh bales were exported In spot market, Cotton dropped by -20 Rupees to end at 24110 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.37% to settled at 3076 while prices up 90 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 23690 and below same could see a test of 23580 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 23880, a move above could see prices testing 23960.

Trading Ideas: 

* Cotton trading range for the day is 23580-23960.

* Cotton prices gained as Cotton output for 2020-21 revised downwards to 356 lakh bales

* The reduction is attributed to the lower output expected in Gujarat and Telangana.

* Cotton exports are expected to increase to 72 lakh bales in the current crop season, which is 7 lakh bales more than the initial estimates

* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -20 Rupees to end at 24110 Rupees.

Chana

Chana yesterday settled up by 2.42% at 5154 as pulses acreage could witness a decline during the forthcoming kharif season after the Centre opened up imports of tur, urad and moong. Government amended the pulses import policy by moving tur, urad and moong from ‘restricted’ to ‘free’ category. The Commerce Ministry in a notification said the revision in pulses import policy is with immediate effect and will for the period up to October 31, 2021. Further, import consignments of these items with Bill of Landing issued on or before October 31 shall not be allowed by Customs beyond November 30, the notification said. “The Open General License (OGL) under the free import policy will enable the traders to quickly import the required quantity of tur, moong and urad to fulfil the shortage of the pulses. We are expecting minimum 250,000 tonnes of tur, 150,000 tonnes of urad and around 50,000-75,000 tonnes of moong beans to be imported primarily from Myanmar, African, and the neighbouring countries.” Total summer crops have been sown on 73.76 lakh ha area against 60.67 lakh ha during the corresponding period of last year, thus increase in total summer area coverage by 13.09 lakh ha compared to corresponding period of last year in the country. In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 90.35 Rupees to end at 5076.45 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.48% to settled at 123330 while prices up 122 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5088 and below same could see a test of 5021 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5195, a move above could see prices testing 5235.

Trading Ideas: 

* Chana trading range for the day is 5021-5235.

* Chana gained as pulses acreage could witness a decline during the forthcoming kharif season after the Centre opened up imports of tur, urad and moong. 

* The country is most likely to face scarcity of pulses this year including masoor, chana and other pulses.

* India’s supply of Kabuli chickpea is expected to plunge 32 percent to 396,000 tonnes due to low carryout and very poor production prospects

* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 90.35 Rupees to end at 5076.45 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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